Political Wire

Trump Is Losing Republicans on Iran

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Punchbowl News: “More GOP candidates and incumbents are coming out against the war in Iran, as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings and public support for the now seventh-month-old conflict continue to sag…”

“These moves come as a new CNN poll showed that three-quarters of the U.S. public disapprove of the way Trump’s handled the conflict. And among Republicans, only 60% approve, a sign of major erosion in Trump’s base.”

“There’s expected to be a new public barometer shortly as the Senate votes on another Iran war powers resolution this week.”

Washington Post: Republican candidates are breaking with Trump on Iran as midterms loom.

The Big Question for the Midterms

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Charlie Cook: “Obviously, we don’t yet know what will happen in the Nov. 3 midterms or what will be going on in the minds of Republicans in Congress, but if this election is as bad for Republicans as it might be, one wonders what Trump’s standing in the party will be when it is over.”

Susan Collins Was Target of FBI Bribery Probe

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“The FBI was quietly investigating a bipartisan group of over a dozen lawmakers — including Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine — in connection with a sprawling pay-for-contracts bribery scheme. Then the Trump administration gutted the FBI’s public corruption unit,” Rolling Stone reports.

“According to a Tuesday report from ProPublica, the probe stemmed from a tell-all cooperation agreement between Martin Kao — the former CEO of the military contractor Navatek — and federal agents. Kao was indicted in 2022 on charges of making illegal campaign contributions, and according to ProPublica, informed the FBI of a nearly $1 million quid-pro-quo scheme that involved dozens of lawmakers.”

Rating Changes Move Toward Democrats Across the Board

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Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “A persistently poor national environment for Republicans informs several rating changes this week toward Democrats.”

“The highlights involve moving Michigan’s marquee Senate race to Leans Democratic and Iowa’s to Toss-up.”

“Several Republican-held governorships, including in big states Florida, Ohio, and Texas, also become more vulnerable in our ratings, as do a few House races.”

Trump Is Back On TV, Briefly

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“President Trump was, once again, all over American television screens on Tuesday,” the New York Times reports.

“Almost every major news channel — with the exception of CNN — carried a live feed of Mr. Trump’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly, even as five networks continued to suspend pool coverage of the president after he banned several outlets from the White House.”

“How does that add up? The answer is United Nations TV, a UN-operated broadcasting system that functions as a kind of C-SPAN for events taking place on the UN campus in Manhattan.”

Trump Threatens to Send Iran ‘Into Hell’

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“President Trump threatened to escalate the war with Iran by ‘annihilating’ the Islamic Republic if it fails to negotiate a deal over its nuclear program, delivering a defensive speech justifying the mission at the United Nations on Tuesday,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

Said Trump: “‘I have a big decision to make.”

He added: “Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before — maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic, and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy again? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness?”

Reuters: Trump says he thinks U.S. will make deal with Iran after election.

An Army of Paid Creators Carpets the Web

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New York Times: “The accounts posting these messages aren’t run by celebrity influencers with massive engagement, legions of fans and lucrative product endorsement deals. Most have only a smattering of followers and, often, the people behind them aren’t even based in the United States.”

“Functioning more like birdshot than a single bullet, these high-volume social media campaigns represent the new vanguard of modern political influence, saturating the internet with a topic until it is all but unavoidable. That can help game social media network algorithms so that they treat coordinated content as organic, spreading the message even wider. Built from dozens or hundreds of posts from accounts you’ve never heard of, they amount to an echo chamber on a budget.”

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

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“Pretty candidly, I think about my identity. I’m not naïve to the fact that we are living under a very regressive administration, and I happen to be a woman, and I, you know, happen to be Latina. And I think that there’s a lot of conversation about electability, and I don’t kind of shy away from those realities.”

— Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), quoted by CNN, on running for president.

Democrats Lead in Polls, Republicans Lead in Cash

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“Republicans are entering the final sprint to the 2026 midterm election trailing Democrats in national and battleground polls and defending much of the most competitive terrain in Congress. But on one critical measure, they hold a clear advantage: cash,” CNBC reports.

“The GOP’s three national committees entered September with roughly $233.4 million in cash on hand, nearly double the $130.4 million held by their Democratic counterparts.”

“And that does not include the biggest Republican-aligned war chest: President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, which entered September with nearly $416 million in the bank.”

Lip Reader Shares Trump’s Offer to Zohran Mamdani

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“President Trump invited lefty Mayor Zohran Mamdani to visit him at the White House to ‘see how I work’ after a meeting at Gracie Mansion Monday, a lip reader revealed,” the New York Post reports.

Said Trump: “What I will say, we’ll look after you, but as I say, you’re doing great.”

He added: “I’ll look after you, you look after the New Yorkers. And we can both make it work. I wanna support you, help me. Come with me to the White House – see how I work.”

Trump Tells UN He Is Confronting World Threats

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“President Trump defended his record as one of tough but necessary choices, casting himself during remarks to the United Nations as a man of action who had made peace, confronted threats, and used power ‘to make America the most powerful country in the world,'” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Despite continuing wars, Trump made the case on Tuesday that his wielding of U.S. military power and diplomatic pressure has delivered for Americans.”

Said Trump: “While others have talked, I have acted. While others have spoken of peace, I have made peace. While others have ignored threats, I have confronted them.”

Fox News: Trump defends U.S. interventions abroad ahead of “big decision” on Iran: “Settling years of unfinished business.”

Billy Bush Joins Fox News as a Contributor

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“Billy Bush has joined Fox News as a contributor, in whuch he will offer cultural analysis on the network’s shows,” Deadline reports.

“After a tenure on Access Hollywood, Bush became a co-host on the third hour of Today. But he was dropped from the show in 2016 after a tape surfaced of his conversation with Donald Trump, as The Apprentice host made lewd remarks about women.”

Trump Surprised by Presence of CNN at United Nations

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“When President Donald Trump arrived at the United Nations on Tuesday and went over to speak to reporters, he noted the presence of Kaitlan Collins,” Deadline reports.

Said Trump: “I’m surprised that CNN is here covering me. You shouldn’t be here. You should not. You should not be here covering me. You said you weren’t going to cover me.”

The Wrap: Trump snaps at Kaitlan Collins at UN press stop after CNN White House ban: “You shouldn’t be here.”

Massive Primary Turnout Points to Big Year for Democrats

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The Downballot: “Throughout this year’s just-concluded primary season, there’s been one consistent storyline: Democratic primaries have seen much higher turnout than their Republican counterparts. But does this meaningfully indicate what we might expect in November?”

“It turns out the answer is very much yes.”

“In midterms over the past 80 years, there’s been a surprisingly tight relationship between voting behavior in a given cycle’s primaries and the House popular vote in the general election that follows. Based on that relationship, this year’s primary turnout suggests that Democrats would win the House vote by an enormous 13-point spread.”

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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