“I don’t think he can take this loss and then be seen as backing down on Iran.”
— Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, on President Trump losing at the Supreme Court on tariffs.
All Signs Point to Military Action in Iran
Playbook: “The massive military buildup continues, with flight tracking websites showing mysterious flights headed toward Diego Garcia and elsewhere overnight. Boat-spotters (yes, they exist) photographed the fully laden USS Gerald R. Ford entering the Mediterranean on Friday, meaning it should be within strike range any day.”
“The simple fact is that America has never built up a military force like this and not used it. It’s hard to believe they’ll all be sent home without firing a shot.”
Will Trump Ignite a Fractured Washington This Week?
Rachel Bade: “President Donald Trump’s State of the Union has the potential to explode into prime time like a box of Roman candles tossed into a bonfire — and the stakes couldn’t be higher for his presidency.”
An Update for Readers
I’m still in the hospital — but as you might imagine, it’s impossible for me to stay away from Political Wire.
If anything, the extraordinary outpouring of support in the comments and in my inbox has only pulled me closer. I can’t possibly respond to every message, but please know how much this extended family means to me. Your kindness has been felt more than you know.
Chris Riback has been terrific stepping in, and with any luck we’ll have a new episode of Trial Balloon this week — even if it comes with the ambient soundtrack of hospital monitors.
Thank you, as always, for reading.
The Voters Who Will Make Up a Blue Wave
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Tariff Turmoil Leaves Treasury Markets Dazed
“Far from being a source of relief, the Supreme Court’s takedown of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has infused new risks and uncertainties into trade policy, U.S. debt and the dollar,” Reuters reports.
Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer Surge in California
“When Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer jumped into the California governor’s race, much of the political class rolled its eyes — two failed presidential hopefuls with seemingly thin bases and no track record statewide,” Politico reports.
“Three months later they’re surging, with poll after poll placing them among the top three Democrats in the race.”
Casey DeSantis Looms Over Florida Governor’s Race
“Florida first lady Casey DeSantis over the last month has gone on conservative podcasts warning about toxic substances found in popular candy bars. She went on Fox News to alert parents of contaminants in baby formula and hosted moms at the governor’s mansion to talk about their vaccine concerns,” Politico reports.
“What she didn’t discuss, however, is her political future in Florida. It’s a topic of intense interest amid a pivotal governor’s race and her husband Ron DeSantis’ last year as the state’s leader.”
Said one Florida GOP insider: “She’s clearly doing something different, and something new, and that’s causing a lot of discussion about if there’s a secret plan in place — or if there’s just a plan to make a plan,”
Corporate America Demands Tariff Refunds
“Corporate America is lining up for refunds from President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs after the US Supreme Court ruled they were illegal, with more than $130bn at stake,” the Financial Times reports.
Iran Is Ready for Concessions
“Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear program in talks with the U.S. in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, as it seeks to avert a U.S. attack,” Reuters reports.
Little Progress on Ending the Shutdown
Punchbowl News: “The shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security has now reached 10 days with no end in sight…”
“Trump administration officials told us that they’re willing to codify into law many of the changes that border czar Tom Homan has made since taking over ‘Operation Metro Surge’ in Minneapolis. The White House sent this one-page sheet to Republican and Democratic Hill offices on Sunday outlining how Homan has modified the controversial ICE operation. This indicates that the White House isn’t interested in moving closer toward the Democratic position at the moment.”
“Democrats have been asking for much more. Schumer and Jeffries released their 10-point plan to overhaul DHS and ICE 19 days ago. Republican congressional leaders have already rejected some of the Democrats’ central demands — a mask ban for federal officers and requiring judicial warrants for enforcement operations.”
“Republicans and Democrats keep saying they’re having good-faith talks. But all signs from top negotiators indicate that they aren’t making much progress.”
Why Trump Is Doubling Down on Tariffs
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New Dutch Coalition Government Gets Youngest Premier
“Dutch King Willem-Alexander has sworn in a new minority Dutch coalition government led by the Netherlands’ youngest-ever prime minister, who will have to use all his bridge-building skills to pass laws and see out a full four-year term in office,” the AP reports.
“Rob Jetten, 38, heads a three-party administration made up of his centrist D66, the center-right Christian Democrats and the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy.”
Trump Confuses Everyone with Hospital Boat to Greenland
“President Donald Trump’s announcement over the weekend that he would be sending a ‘great hospital boat’ to Greenland to care for the Arctic island’s neglected sick is — like many of the president’s remarks around Greenland — causing befuddlement on both sides of the Atlantic,” the Washington Post reports.
“Officials on the island, a semiautonomous territory of Denmark, did not ask for such a ship, and Greenland’s prime minister said it will not be welcoming it, as its citizens are guaranteed free health care.”
North Korea’s Ruling Party Re-Elects Kim Jong Un
“North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party re-elected Kim Jong Un as general secretary at a party congress meeting on Sunday, state media said, a move seen as underlining his absolute grip on power and greater confidence over domestic stability,” Reuters reports.
South Carolina Democrats Enlist Joe Biden
“South Carolina Democrats are enlisting former President Biden to try to save the state’s place as the first contest in the party’s next presidential primary,” Axios reports.
Secret Report Found Gaza Cost Kamala Harris Votes
“Top Democratic officials who worked on the party’s still-secret autopsy of the 2024 election concluded that Kamala Harris lost significant support because of the Biden administration’s approach to the war in Gaza,” Axios reports.
“The Democratic National Committee’s research on what went wrong in 2024 has been under lock and key since party leaders decided last year to hide it from the public — a reflection of how explosively it could resonate within the party and beyond.”
Tariffs Are a Wild Card for the Economy Again
“Before Friday, President Trump’s tariffs, after months of on-again, off-again turbulence, had seemed to finally steady. Now, with the bulk of Trump’s tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, and a new, temporary global tariff in place, fresh questions hang over the U.S. economy,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
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