The latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll finds GOP insiders almost unanimous in thinking Mitt Romney will win their party’s presidential nomination.

Charlie Cook takes a look at the most recent national polling on the presidential race.

“These numbers certainly don’t show Obama’s reelection fortunes as hopeless, but they paint a very challenging situation. If events and the state of the economy don’t change enough to raise his approval rating and his chances of winning an election that is framed as a referendum on his tenure, he will have to try to turn the contest into a choice between him and the GOP nominee. That will be easier if Republicans nominate an ideologue (and this still might be possible in a matchup with Romney). Recall the 2004 Bush-Cheney reelection campaign when it turned Democratic nominee John Kerry into an ideological weathervane, an unacceptable choice.”

“Despite a pledge not to take money from lobbyists, President Obama has relied on prominent supporters who are active in the lobbying industry to raise millions of dollars for his re-election bid,” the New York Times reports.

“At least 15 of Mr. Obama’s ‘bundlers’ — supporters who contribute their own money to his campaign and solicit it from others — are involved in lobbying for Washington consulting shops or private companies. They have raised more than $5 million so far for the campaign.”

Mother Jones
has a photo of the massive crowd that turned out at a recent volunteer
meeting in Massachusetts for U.S. Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren (D),
noting that it “looks more like the kind of crowd you’d see at
presidential volunteer meeting late in the campaign than a rally for a
Senate candidate 13 months before the general election.”

The AP profiles Mark Block, Herman Cain’s unorthodox campaign manager made famous in the viral ad that shows him smoking a cigarette. He’s “left a trail of questionable campaign work behind him.”

“Block has been accused of voter suppression and was banned from running Wisconsin political campaigns for three years to settle accusations he coordinated a judge’s re-election campaign with a special interest group. Records show Block has faced foreclosure on his home, a tax warrant by the Internal Revenue Service and a lawsuit for an unpaid bill. He also acknowledges he was arrested twice for drunken driving.”

If you want to see next month’s “modified Lincoln-Douglas debate” between Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich — not carried on television — it will cost you, the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Bleacher seating at the Gingrich/Cain debate, hosted by the Texas Tea Party Patriots at the Woodlands Resort in Houston, costs a cool $200. The next step up, the $500 ticket, gets you ‘prime seating’ and a ticket to the ‘Nite Cap party after the Debate,’ … And for the really high rollers, $1,000 will get you ‘the best seating in the house for the debate’ and ‘a professional picture taken with the candidates.'”

There’s no word if the candidates are getting paid for their appearance, but Dave Weigel, who first broke the story, reports proceeds will go to the Tea Party Patriots group.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds Charlie Crist remains a popular figure in the state with a 51% to 34% favorability rating and if he were to run as a Democrat to reclaim his old office against Gov. Rick Scott (R) he would lead by 13 points at 51% to 38%.

In a hypothetical rematch of last year’s race, Alex Sink (D) would lead Scott 52% to 41%.

This is the first in a guest series from Inkwell Strategies analyzing the 2012 campaign ad war.

In the coming weeks and months, the Republican primary campaign will shift from debating and handshaking to the far more expensive – and often uglier – realm of paid media.

While we haven’t yet seen many candidates go up on the airwaves, we are seeing an uptick in the number of web ads – commercials designed not for a television audience, but for online viewers.

Web ads are a great way to tinker with the candidate’s message while earning free (or very inexpensive) coverage. Think of them as spring training for media consultants.

Last week, Texas Gov. Rick Perry released a powerful ad that almost surely previews his traditional television advertising campaign to come. Politics aside, the ad is not only a master stroke by his campaign team, but required viewing for anyone interested in the art of candidate marketing.

[Read more…]

The FBI alleges a Florida man “attempted an extortion plot that threatened to smear acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) in West Virginia’s upcoming special election for governor,” the AP reports.

The threat involved a video allegedly showing inhumane practices at an Oklahoma greyhound kennel. In the emails, the man says the campaign of Bill Maloney (R), wanted the video. Maloney has attacked Tomblin over his mother’s greyhound breeding business.

The special election is on Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee “has been approached by Republican and conservative activists unhappy with the current crop of presidential hopefuls and he is considering entering the fray,” Reuters reports.

Update: A source close to Huckabee tells CBS News that “there are
certainly people that have asked him to reconsider his decision, even
more so lately, but at this point that is not something he is doing.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds President Obama barely leading Mitt Romney in a general election match up, 47% to 45%.

Key findings: “Obama’s poor showing in Connecticut is mostly a function of his own unpopularity. Despite having won it by 23 points in 2008 his approval numbers are now under water at 48/49. That represents a 17 point net shift in the wrong direction since PPP last polled the state in March.”

However, Obama leads the rest of the Republican field by double digits.