“Senate Democrats may be feeling pretty positive going into their final campaign sprint, but first they must deal with a handful of political headaches on the Hill,” Politico reports.

“Democrats at their weekly caucus lunch today will talk strategy on a number of measures that could split members who have stuck together on other recent high-profile votes.”

“Senate Democratic leaders expect a mostly unified caucus against a bill targeting data center costs and another restricting lawmaker’s stock trading, according to a leadership aide, who acknowledged it’s possible some members break ranks if it makes sense for them politically.”

“Vote counts on a third bill on violence in the West Bank are less clear.”

The Atlantic: “When this year began, the Democrats were heavy underdogs to take back the Senate in the midterms. The task would require not only toppling Susan Collins in Maine but also winning at least five states that voted for Donald Trump in 2024, while holding on to all of the party’s existing seats. The realistic best-case scenario seemed to be a replay of the so-called blue-wave 2018 election, during Trump’s first term, in which Democrats took back the House but the Senate remained in Republican hands. To gain control of the upper chamber, Democrats would need an incredible stroke of luck. They might have gotten one.”

“Trump’s decision to start a war with Iran, and the resulting spike in oil prices, shifted the boundaries of the politically possible.”

Jonathan Bernstein: “While plenty of people are already voting, there’s still five weeks to election day, and raw polling results five weeks out are hardly the last word in predictions. It’s certainly possible that trends towards the Democrats will continue all through October; it’s also possible that the Republicans have just endured a particularly harsh stretch, and that there will be at least some reversion to more normal partisan balance. The FiftyPlusOne prediction model, for example, has a median estimate of only – only! – 52 Democratic Senate seats.”

“The big point here is that there’s still a pretty large range of plausible outcomes, including some that at this point would be pretty disappointing for Democrats. But also that the upside for Republicans now seems more likely be retaining control with 50 possibly even 51 seats, which is not only awful for them compared to what things looked like a year ago but also worse than it looked even a few weeks ago. And the upside for Democrats? It’s just silly looking at this point. Which doesn’t mean it can’t happen.”

“Former President Barack Obama is looking to give Democrats a financial boost, headlining a fundraiser next month with the party’s Senate campaign arm,” NBC News reports.

“The event, scheduled for Oct. 7 in the Washington area, will be Obama’s first fundraiser with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee this election cycle.”