Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192
November Surprises
“A majority of Americans say artificial intelligence is a bad thing for society and about two-thirds oppose the construction of new data centers in the U.S., with opposition even higher to building data centers in people’s own communities,” according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll.
“The poll finds that a 57% majority of Americans say AI is bad for society while 42% say it is good for society.”
A new The Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll in Georgia finds Jon Ossoff (D) leading Mike Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 40%.
A new CNN/SSRS poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 49% to 39%.
“For the second time in two months, President Donald Trump is heading to South Carolina to try to save a Senate seat Republicans considered safe until recently,” MS NOW reports.
“The reliably red bastion hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998. But Republican Sen. Darline Graham is locked in an unexpectedly close race with Democrat Annie Andrews, and the GOP is pouring money and manpower into South Carolina in the campaign’s final stretch.”
“They have their work cut out.”
The Bulwark: Darline Graham’s seat isn’t safe. These voters explain why.
A new The New York Times/Siena University poll finds President Trump’s approval at 36%, while 59% disapprove.
A new New York Times/Siena University poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 11 percentage points, 52% to 41%.
Nate Cohn: “Eleven is a big number. No party has won the national vote by such a large margin since the Democrats did so in 2008. While the outcome of the midterms will ultimately be decided seat by seat, anything like the results of the poll would probably yield a large Democratic House majority and give the party every opportunity to flip the red states they need to win the Senate, including in states where Democrats simply haven’t been competitive in recent years.”
“The flagship Democratic House super PAC is urging donors to pony up more cash in the final sprint before the midterms, pointing to private polling showing a slew of deep-red House seats within the party’s reach,” the Washington Sun reports.
“House Majority PAC told donors in a private memo that recent polling ‘shows that with additional resources, even more expansion seats are within reach.’ The memo included polling data from 13 districts that President Donald Trump won by 8 to 21 percentage points in 2024, all of which shows those congressional races now in margin-of-error fights.”
Punchbowl News: “Florida Republicans brazenly carved up their congressional map to add four new red seats at the behest of President Donald Trump and GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.”
”It’s not quite going as planned.”
”There’s a real possibility that Republicans end up winning just one of the four newly redrawn districts next month. Trump won all these new districts by nine points or more in 2024. But only Democratic Rep. Darren Soto’s central Florida district appears locked up for the GOP right now.”
“The man who could become Alaska’s first Democratic governor in a generation — and the youngest in the young state’s history — is a moderate who does nothing in moderation,” the New York Times reports.
“Stories of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins’s intensity are already political legend in Alaska. At 13, he became a state organizer for Howard Dean’s presidential campaign, his age concealed by the internet. A mountaineer, cellist and extreme runner, he dropped out of Yale to win a state legislative seat at age 23, and then spent a decade building bipartisan coalitions, conducting legislative business on his phone as he trained for ultramarathons on Juneau’s hills. That phase ended with a freak paragliding accident that broke two bones in his right leg and slowed him down ever so slightly.”
“Now the bald, bearded, baby-faced Eagle Scout, known in Alaska by almost everyone as JKT, is about to be introduced to a national audience at 37. His once-underdog campaign is testing whether Democrats can win in Republican states by building coalitions across party lines without embracing the socialist left.”
NPR: A Democrat could become governor of Alaska for the first time in over 20 years.
“Russia on Wednesday released an American man who was held for four years on what the State Department called fabricated charges that he was a Ukrainian mercenary,” the New York Times reports.
”The release came after President Trump made a direct appeal to President Vladimir V. Putin to let the 74-year-old teacher, Stephen James Hubbard, return to the United States.”
“Sen. Roger Marshall’s re-election campaign spent $5 million from July through September as his once-safe Kansas seat turned competitive,” MS NOW reports.
“None of it went to payroll.”
“The Kansas Republican’s latest Federal Election Commission filing showed no outgoing payments for payroll or salary over that stretch, even as his spending jumped from just under $50,000 the previous quarter and his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton, began picking up steam.”
“Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign for Ohio governor is pouring $4 million into a bombshell ad in which his opponent’s estranged mother attacks her daughter — doubling down on the message despite fierce bipartisan backlash,” Axios reports.
“Ramaswamy is gambling that the deeply personal attack by Amy Acton’s mother — who Acton has said sided with her stepfather after he sexually assaulted Acton when she was 12 — will resonate with voters.”
The New Republic: Vivek Ramaswamy defends disgusting ad with opponent’s abusive mom.
“Justice Elena Kagan on Tuesday criticized the Supreme Court’s conservative majority for a series of election-related decisions in recent years that she said have led to more polarization and a dysfunctional democracy,” the New York Times reports.
“Justice Kagan, one of the court’s three liberals, delivered the sharp critique two weeks before hotly contested midterm elections and in front of an ideologically mixed crowd of law students and professors.”
“JB Pritzker is pouring tens of millions of dollars of his own money into boosting Black and Hispanic candidates this cycle. That could help him win over critical voters in 2028,” Politico reports.
“The billionaire Illinois governor — who’s also considered a potential presidential contender — is investing at least $38 million in battleground races.”
“The Trump administration’s disaster chief told state officials Tuesday they must increase their financial reserves and emergency capabilities to handle most disasters on their own, without federal help,” Politico reports.
“Billionaire Ken Griffin said Republicans in Congress and President Donald Trump made a mistake by cutting taxes even further last year,” Bloomberg reports.
Said Griffin: “We didn’t have the fiscal space to renew the tax cuts. Republicans have their hands dirty over the tax cuts the last two years.”
New York Times: “Mr. Trump has brought up the press-eviction idea before, dating to his first term, and he has never quite dropped it. A growing number of people around him favor the idea.”
“Several close to him believe that moving the news media, most likely to the Eisenhower Executive Office Building across the street, may be the latest escalation in a remarkable series of moves against the news media that have already gone further than most of them expected.”
The Wrap: White House won’t deny Trump is eyeing press briefing room for indoor pool.
FiftyPlusOne caught a pollster named Wedgewood Polls faking data — which they admitted in a statement.
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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