“Beneath the headline results in many polls, something unusual has turned up with big implications for politics: More voters are calling themselves Republicans than Democrats, suggesting that the GOP has its first durable lead in party identification in more than three decades,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

GOP pollster Bill McInturff called it “the underrecognized game-changer for 2024.’’

New York Times: “There may be seven main battlegrounds in the race for the White House in 2024, all of which could prove crucial. But Pennsylvania stands apart as the state that top strategists for both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump have circled as the likeliest to tip the election.”

“Both candidates are pouring more money, time and energy into the state than anywhere else, with Ms. Harris, Mr. Trump and their allies set to spend $350 million just on television ads in Pennsylvania — $142 million more than the next closest state and more than Michigan and Wisconsin combined.”

Washington Post: Part of Harris’ Pennsylvania strategy: Lose red counties by less.

Associated Press: What presidential campaign? The Electoral College puts most American voters on the sidelines.

“Less than a month before Election Day, Donald Trump’s campaign has not yet participated in the government’s official presidential transition process, a significant break from past practice that could threaten the seamless transfer of power should the Republican nominee win election,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Trump’s team has missed two key deadlines to sign agreements with the administration that are set by federal law and has also failed to sign an ethics plan that is required to jump-start the process of planning for a new administration. Mr. Trump’s representatives did attend a meeting at the White House last month, but they otherwise have had little communication with the Biden administration about the handoff and have skipped the opportunity to receive national security briefings.”

“Mr. Trump’s approach is a clear, although not wholly unexpected, departure from how previous presidential candidates prepared to take control of the vast federal bureaucracy. It appears to be guided, at least in part, by the candidate’s deep suspicion and mistrust of the government he is running to lead.”

“Experts note Mr. Trump may also have other incentives. His refusal to sign the documents allows him to circumvent fund-raising rules that put limits on private contributions to the transition effort, as well as ethics rules meant to avoid possible conflicts of interest for the incoming administration.”

“In the two-and-a-half months since Joe Biden ended his reelection bid, Kamala Harris swiftly secured the Democratic presidential nomination, headlined the party’s most rapturous convention since 2008, brought in hundreds of millions of dollars in new campaign donations and surged past Biden’s poll numbers from earlier this year,” CNN reports.

“And yet, Democrats are increasingly anxious over Harris’ fate. There is a growing sense that her campaign is stuck in the mud – as familiar debates crop up over where and how to deploy precious resources.”

“Harris advisers often publicly dismiss the polls, acknowledging that the race is close and will remain so leading up to Election Day. But just weeks shy – and after multiple blitzes to battleground states and a debate that wiped away memories of Biden’s unraveling – the needle has barely moved, if at all.”

“As many across the southeast struggle to dig out from Hurricane Helene and with Florida now bracing for Hurricane Milton, Donald Trump is making the storms a flashpoint in the presidential race,” Politico reports.

“The former president has seized on the devastation left by Helene to launch a barrage of misinformation — including promoting false claims that FEMA spent disaster relief money on migrants that add to his already inflammatory rhetoric about immigration.”

“Across visits to storm-torn states and through social media, he has cast Kamala Harris and the Biden administration as absent and incompetent in delivering aid even as members of his own party in affected areas say otherwise.”

Wall Street Journal: FEMA scrambles to confront two storms — and misinformation.

Associated Press: As FEMA prepares for Hurricane Milton, it battles rumors surrounding Helene recovery.

The Cook Political Report shifted the Wisconsin Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up.”

Wall Street Journal: “An internal poll done by Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign last week showed Harris down by 3 percentage points in Wisconsin, while Baldwin was up by two points, according to a person familiar with the poll. The person said much of the narrowing is due to Republicans’ strength with noncollege-educated men.”

“Senator Mitt Romney, the retiring Republican from Utah and onetime standard-bearer of a party that has shifted under his feet, said Tuesday that he would not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris in the election because it might hamper a critical role he could play in helping to rebuild the G.O.P. down the line,” the New York Times reports.

Said Romney: “I’ve made it very clear that I don’t want Donald Trump to be the next president of the United States.”

But, he added later: “I want to continue to have a voice in the Republican Party following this election. I think there’s a good chance that the Republican Party is going to need to be rebuilt or reoriented.”

Salt Lake Tribune: Why Mitt Romney — no fan of Donald Trump — doesn’t plan to endorse Kamala Harris for president.

“Donald Trump has threatened a campaign of retribution if he returns to the White House, signaling that he will seek to prosecute rivals and enemies while stocking a second administration with loyalists who will carry out his wishes,” the New York Times reports.

“To underline the point, he has posted pictures on social media of political rivals like Vice President Kamala Harris, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wearing orange jumpsuits.”

“Legal experts are deeply worried that he will follow through on these promises… His allies say that it’s all bluster and that he won’t try to carry out campaign-season threats if he were to gain control of the Justice Department and other government agencies.”

“The truth is, though, as president he demanded investigations of his enemies and often got them.”

Florida Republican Party chairman Al Cárdenas said he’s supporting Kamala Harris after “trolling” from other Republicans over the federal government’s response to Hurricane Helene, The Hill reports.

“It was a viral moment for a campaign that needed one: A chorus of boos greeting JD Vance as he spoke to a roomful of union firefighters in Boston, the same group that had warmly greeted Tim Walz a day earlier,” Axios reports.

“But it was a fleeting moment for Walz and Kamala Harris. Despite the reception at the August convention, the International Association of Fire Fighters last week declined to endorse either candidate in the presidential race — a snub of the Walz-Harris campaign that underscores a much larger problem for the ticket. The move completely blindsided the vice president’s team.”

“This guy who was president of the United States is sending them to Russia to a murderous dictator for his own personal use. This person who wants to be president again who secretly is helping out an adversary when the American people are dying by the hundreds every day and in need of relief.”

— Kamala Harris, quoted by the New York Times, apoplectic at the news Donald Trump sent rare Covid test machines to Vladimir Putin 

“With just four weeks until the election, Donald Trump and Republican candidates nationwide are putting transgender issues at the center of their campaigns, tapping into fears about transgender women and girls in sports and about taxpayer-funded gender transitions in prisons,” the New York Times reports.

“Since the beginning of August, Republicans have poured more than $65 million into television ads in more than a dozen states on these topics in some of the country’s most competitive races.”

“They are a sign that Republican strategists believe they have found a potent third leg for their messaging stool in 2024, along with the mainstays of inflation and immigration.”

Semafor: Anti-trans ads didn’t work in 2022. Republicans think this time will be different.