Kamala Harris is narrowly leading Donald Trump 49% to 44% in Minnesota, according to a new MinnPost-Embold Research poll.
Very Close in Michigan
A new Mitchell Research poll in Michigan finds Kamala Harris barely ahead of Donald Trump in a multi-candidate field, 47% to 46%.
In a head-to-head match up, they are tied at 48% to 48%.
Misinformation Leads to Threats of Violence in Springfield
“Bomb threats on Friday forced the evacuation and closure of public schools and municipal buildings for a second consecutive day, as the city continues to deal with sudden national attention due to false claims involving its Haitian population,” NBC News reports.
“Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have pushed those false claims as part of a broader effort to use Springfield as an example for what they say are the harmful consequences of immigration.”
Battleground House Republican Dodges Abortion Question
“Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) is the lone Republican member of the Florida House delegation who won’t say how she’ll vote on the state’s abortion ballot referendum,” Politico reports.
Said Luna: “I don’t think that questions of policy should be placed on the ballot, and I think that there’s some things that are up for debate within the medical community alone. The Supreme Court said, as a federal legislator, that my opinion on the matter doesn’t really matter.”
Harris Maintains Small Edge Across the Swing States
A quick review of the polling averages on FiveThirtyEight:
- National: Harris +2.6
- Wisconsin: Harris +2.6
- Michigan: Harris +1.4
- Pennsylvania: Harris +0.6
- North Carolina: Harris +0.1
- Nevada: Tied
- Georgia: Trump +0.8
- Arizona: Trump +0.9
You can game out the electoral vote on my interactive map.
Trump Has Made Some Really Big Mistakes
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White House Delays Decision on U.S. Steel
“White House officials are signaling that President Joe Biden will not imminently move to block Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel amid mounting concerns over the political and economic consequences of nixing the deal,” the Washington Post reports.
U.S. to Expose RT’s Role in Russian Intelligence Operations
“The Biden administration is expected on Friday to announce a major effort to blunt the global influence of RT and expose what it says is the Russian state media network’s key role in the Kremlin’s global intelligence and influence operations,” CNN reports.
Bipartisan Group of Lawmakers Pledge to Certify Election
“More than 30 House members, including a half-dozen Republicans, have signed a bipartisan pledge to uphold the results of the 2024 election amid an increased focus on Congress’ role in certifying the tally next January,” Politico reports.
Election Results Could Take a While
New York Times: “For the second straight presidential election, it is becoming increasingly likely that there will be no clear and immediate winner on election night and that early returns could give a false impression of who will ultimately prevail.”
“Large swaths of Americans have changed their voting habits in recent years, relying increasingly on mail-in ballots, which take more time to count than those cast in person on Election Day. States with prolonged vote-counting processes, such as Arizona, have become suddenly competitive. And the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump appears extremely close.”
“If a winner is not declared on election night, it will not necessarily point to failures in the process. More likely, it will be a result of the intense security measures required for counting mail-in ballots.”
Harris Releases New Ad from the Debate
Kamala Harris’ campaign released a new ad featuring her closing statement from this week’s debate when she called for unity and committed to serving all Americans.
Election Deniers Want ‘AI Cameras’ to Monitor Drop Boxes
An election denial group is planning to create what one of its founders calls “a dropbox surveillance reality show” by donating “AI-driven” cameras to sheriffs in Wisconsin and other states to livestream dropboxes and remotely monitor people voting,” Wired reports.
Appeals Court Won’t Move Hush Money Case
A U.S. appeals court late declined to interfere with a lower court decision to keep Donald Trump’s already-decided “hush money” criminal case in state court, dealing another blow to the former president’s bid to move the case to federal court, The Guardian reports.
How a Claim of Eating Pets Made It to the Debate Stage
“In just days, a bizarre and baseless claim accusing Haitian migrants of eating pet cats in Springfield, Ohio, went from an obscure Facebook post in a private group to a talking point by Republican Donald Trump during Tuesday night’s presidential debate,” Newsguard reports.
“The journey of the viral claim from vague, third hand gossip among Ohio neighbors to the presidential debate stage — where it was broadcast to 67 million people — is as stunning as the claim itself, according to those who started it all…”
“The interviews reveal just how flimsy and unsubstantiated the rumor was from the beginning — based entirely on third hand hearsay. Yet it quickly gained traction and, remarkably, found its way to Trump’s lips on a national stage.”
NBC News: How a fringe online claim about immigrants eating pets made its way to the debate stage.
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The Debate Wasn’t Really for Swing Voters
Julia Azari: “After Trump was elected, there was a lot of talk about the psychological and identity factors that drove his support – he made his supporters feel good about their social identities, and he made them feel like winners. I suspect something similar has been going on with Democrats and Harris, and she used the debate context to draw those comparisons and make her supporters feel like part of a winning team. An important element of this tactic is that it’s not for swing or undecided voters. It’s not even really for the news media. It’s for the hardcore partisans and fans who are watching, and it gives them the energy boost that was, well, the opposite of the Biden debate back in June. Supporters who feel like part of a fun, successful, high-status team seem much more likely to volunteer, canvass, and publicly signal their support.”
“Facing Trump on the debate stage also allowed Harris to highlight her opponent’s biggest weaknesses on democracy and temperament. This is for anti-Trump conservatives – people such as the Cheneys, former George W. Bush Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, and the writers at the Bulwark. Reminding traditional and disaffected Republicans of their fundamental differences with Trump and the threat he poses to democracy and national security is what speaks to this group.”
“Again, this is not really for swing voters, who may not be especially attuned to these issues. But they might be swayed by either group – the signals from anti-Trump Republicans, or from enthusiastic, partisan Democrats.”
When Republicans Stopped Moderating to Win
Seth Masket: “We hear a lot of claims these days about the differences between the two parties, and about how today’s politicians are different from those in the past. But it’s not always that easy to step back and examine this systematically. Yet a look at the behavior of US senators shows that Republicans are now acting very differently from their Democratic colleagues in election years.”
“Research by Mike Cowburn and Sean Theriault has found that Republicans, at least, have been changing their approach to elections since the rise of the Tea Party. That is, Republican senators seem to have stopped moderating in election years, and might even be behaving more conservatively to stave off ideological challenges in primary elections.”
Antisemitic Ads About Doug Emhoff Target Muslim Voters
New York Times: “A super PAC that appears to have Republican ties is targeting Michigan residents — including those in Detroit-area ZIP codes that are home to many Muslim Americans and Arab Americans — with YouTube advertisements that highlight Vice President Kamala Harris’s support for Israel and, in some cases, the Jewish faith of her husband, Mr. Emhoff.”
“As the narrator cheerfully notes Mr. Emhoff’s religion, an image of the Israeli flag appears onscreen, a dog whistle conjuring the antisemitic trope of dual loyalty.”
