Nate Silver: “In polls that test the ballot both with and without RFK, which our model diligently tracks as part of the adjustment it makes for his presence on the ballot, we find Trump losing an average of 3.0 points when Kennedy is included, and Harris losing 2.4 points.”

“In other words, he takes more of his votes than Trump (about 55 percent) than Harris (45 percent)… Given that he has just 4 percent of the vote now, having Trump regain 55 percent of those votes would only make a net difference of 0.4 points instead.”

“And there are some other complications. One is that polls that include RFK Jr. usually also include other third-party candidates, like Jill Stein and the Libertarian Chase Oliver. Some of RFK’s votes would probably go to those candidates instead, rather than one of the major party candidates.”

Vice President Kamala Harris will formally accept the Democratic nomination for president.

Meanwhile, speculation is running rampant about a possible “surprise guest.”

For a detailed list of speakers, see the DNC’s schedule. 

Leave your reactions in the comments.

“The vice president knows the pressure is on for her convention speech, those close to her say,” NOTUS reports.

“But she has long had a vigorous process to face it.”

“People who have written for Harris or been part of the process before denote the arduous and sometimes daunting process that writing a speech for any principal, but certainly the vice president, requires. That’s in part because of the historic nature of her presidential bid and Republicans’ insistence on highlighting any small slipup or mistake.”

A new Data for Progress poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally in a multi-candidate field, 47% to 43%.

In a head-to-head match up, Harris leads 49% to 46%.

Key takeaway: “The voters who are undecided between Harris and Trump today are not the same voters who were undecided between Biden and Trump in May. Using the same methodological approach, updated to replace Biden with Harris, we are now collecting a smaller number of swing voters in our surveys, a sign that Harris has already captured a number of voters who were not certain to vote for Biden. “

“Vice President Kamala Harris taped three interviews this week at the Democratic National Convention, but none were with any of the 15,000 credentialed journalists here in Chicago. Instead, they were with social media influencers, including Vidya Gopalan, a North Carolina mom known to her 3.4 million TikTok followers as @queencitytrends,” CNN reports.

“Gopalan, who largely posts lifestyle content, asked Harris to reflect on their shared Indian heritage and her memories of spending time in India with her grandfather. The video, posted Tuesday, has more than 1.9 million views.”

“That engagement represented a recognition from the Harris campaign that reaching voters in the countdown to Election Day will require Democrats to go beyond a traditional media strategy and into new spaces.”

A new SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied among likely voters, 47% to 47%.

In the gubernatorial race, Josh Stein (D) leads Mark Robinson by 14 points, 48% to 34%.

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) did not receive the warmest welcome when he tried to order donuts from a shop in Georgia.

“The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a Republican push that could block more than 41,000 Arizona voters from casting ballots for president in the state that Democratic President Joe Biden won by less than 11,000 votes four years ago,” the AP reports.

“But in a 5-4 order, the high court allowed some enforcement of regulations barring people from voting if they don’t provide proof of citizenship when they register.”

Gallup: “Americans’ favorable rating of Harris has increased 13 percentage points since June, to 47%, with 93% of Democrats, 41% of independents and 5% of Republicans holding positive opinions of her.”

“The vice president’s job approval rating is also now 47%, up seven points from the previous reading in December 2023.”

“Vice President Kamala Harris activated a flood of Democratic donors who had been on the sidelines, new data shows: More people donated to her campaign in its first 10 days than in the entire 15 months of President Joe Biden’s,” Politico reports.

“And most of the donors were new not only to the campaign but to giving to any Democrats this cycle.”

“Harris’ campaign and affiliated joint fundraising committees received contributions from nearly 2.3 million individual donors from July 21, when Biden dropped out of the race, through July 31.”

This is simply an extraordinary data point.

“Tim Walz was 100 percent pitch perfect, grand slam, touchdown in every possible way. And yet somehow Gus Walz was even better.”

— Former White House Communications Director Kate Bedingfield, on X.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said House Democrats are on the brink of taking back the majority, arguing the party is “inside the red zone” of snatching four seats from Republicans on Election Day, Punchbowl News reports.

Said Jeffries: “The road to the majority, in many ways, rests in our two states, in New York and in California. We are only four seats short. We’re inside the red zone, inside the 20-yard line. We’re inside the five-yard line. We can see the end zone, and California and New York can get us over the finish line. Get us over the finish line.”