Political Wire

Dems Lead for Iowa and Ohio Governor, Close in Texas

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A new The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll in Iowa finds Rob Sand (D) leading Zach Lahn (R) in the governor’s race, 54% to 43%.

Iowa Governor’s Race
Rob Sand (D) 54%
 
Zach Lahn (R) 43%
 
The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll
Ohio Governor’s Race
Amy Acton (D) 49%
 
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 44%
 
The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll
Texas Governor’s Race
Greg Abbott (R) 48%
 
Gina Hinojosa (D) 46%
 
The Cook Political Report/New River Strategies and GS Strategy Group poll

Jeffrey Epstein Attorney, Accountant Sued by New Mexico

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“New Mexico’s attorney general on Wednesday filed a federal lawsuit accusing Jeffrey Epstein’s long-time personal lawyer and accountant of facilitating Epstein’s sex trafficking operation,” CNBC reports.

“The civil suit alleges that the attorney, Darren Indyke, and the accountant, Richard Kahn, helped finance and conceal Epstein’s sex trafficking, which included the abuse of girls and young women at his Zorro Ranch in Santa Fe County, New Mexico.”

Deep-Red Republicans Are Suddenly Going Negative

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Punchbowl News: “With less than two weeks to go until the midterms, we’re seeing some GOP lawmakers in deep red territory make aggressive campaign moves.”

“Plenty of House Republicans are going negative on their Democratic opponents. It’s an interesting play, since many of those Democrats aren’t running ads of their own and have low name ID. That so many Republicans are doing it suggests they’re worried the ‘R’ next to their name could cost them with angry voters.”

‘I Never Thought I Would Write This Piece’

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Robert Rubin: “The economy has been voters’ top issue in four of the six midterm elections this century — and 2026 appears all but certain to make it five of seven. Beyond the cost of living, the war in Iran and tariffs, America faces a series of daunting longer-term economic challenges, from mounting federal debt to the effects of artificial intelligence.”

“Yet many Americans continue to underestimate one particular potential threat to our economic future: President Trump’s clearly expressed desire to interfere with and even usurp the midterm elections. Nov. 3 could be a defining test for the rule of law in this country, and both our democracy and our prosperity are on the line.”

MS NOW: Democrats are preparing for Trump to try disrupting voting on Election Day.

The Bottom Falls Out for Trump

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Dan Pfeiffer: “Polls can be wrong. Even A+ rated polls can be wrong. But the brand-new New York Times/Siena poll suggests that Republicans are in for a brutal election night. Republicans have been spinning that their numbers have improved in recent weeks, or at least stabilized.”

“The Times poll says otherwise.”

“Trump’s approval rating is 36%, down a couple of points from September, and Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot increased two points. Their 11-point lead on the generic ballot is the largest in any election since 2008, when Barack Obama won the popular vote by nearly 10 million votes.”

Feds Knock On Doors to Track Down Noncitizen Voters

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“Armed and in uniform, federal agents from the Department of Homeland Security have been knocking on doors in several states to ask residents about their immigration status — and to inquire if they have registered to vote or cast votes in past elections,” CBS News reports.

“The operation is part of an effort to root out potential noncitizen voters ahead of the midterms. DHS has alleged that there could be as many as 250,000 citizens illegally registered to vote, although election experts have disputed the accuracy of this figure. Just 156 people have been charged with voting-fraud related offenses since the beginning of the Trump administration.”

The Secret Terms of Trump’s Venezuelan Oil Deal

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“In late August, President Donald Trump announced what he called the ‘biggest oil deal in world history.’ Since then, the full text of the accord — which grants the U.S. sweeping access to Venezuela’s oil reserves — has been one of the most sought-after secrets in Washington, D.C,” ProPublica reports.

“ProPublica has reviewed a copy of the 18-page strategic partnership agreement signed for the United States by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The document reveals carefully constructed terms that favor U.S. interests at every turn and cements the power of a small group of people handpicked by the Trump administration to govern and profit from the deal. The role of the Venezuelan government and the potential benefits to its people are largely absent from the text.”

GOP Super PAC Ad Targets Troy Jackson’s Family

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“The Republican super PAC that has spent heavily to reelect Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is running a country song on Maine radio that mocks her opponent, Troy Jackson (D), for having children with his second cousin,” the Bangor Daily News reports.

“The ad from the Senate Leadership Fund, which surfaced Tuesday, calls Jackson ‘weird,’ a ‘freak’ and a ‘creep’ because ‘he has two kids with his cousin.'”

And the refrain: “If he’ll screw his own family, he’ll screw yours too.”

JD Vance May Face Pressure Over Trump’s Corruption

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“Vice President JD Vance’s role as President Donald Trump’s chief defender poses a growing challenge as the administration faces mounting perceptions of inside dealing and corruption,” NewsNation reports.

“Vance on Monday said the idea of Trump using the White House for personal enrichment was ‘laughable,’ and during a CBS News town hall over the weekend, he said he doesn’t see evidence of corruption. That puts him increasingly out of step with most voters, including an expanding segment of Republicans.”

Fox News: Vance reveals the Trump dilemma that could complicate his 2028 White House ambitions.

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Ramaswamy’s Self-Inflicted October Surprise

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Talking PointsVivek Ramaswamy (R) seems determined to prove that his biggest political liability might be himself.

And his latest miscalculation has turned into an October surprise of his own making.

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George Bush’s Brother Voted for James Talarico

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“Neil Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush and son of former President George H.W. Bush, said Tuesday that he voted for Democrat James Talarico in the Texas Senate race while criticizing President Trump and ‘those who have enabled him’ for causing ‘enormous damage to the Republican Party,'” CBS News reports.

Said Bush: “My vote was motivated by two things: deep concern about Ken Paxton’s record and genuine admiration for the character and principles I see in James Talarico.”

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Another Sign of a Coming Blue Wave

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Talking PointsNearly every poll suggests Democrats are heading toward a massive wave election in November.

Yet many Democrats remain skeptical. After being burned in 2024, they’re understandably reluctant to believe favorable polling numbers again.

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Talking Points is my analysis of the political landscape, written only for Political Wire members.

  • Talking Points analysis
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  • Inside Elections and Ballot Access News
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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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