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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193

The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Latinos Are Now America’s Most Important Swing Voters

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“In the 1990s, politicians fought for the support of soccer moms. In the 2010s, they competed for votes from white working-class voters. Now it is clear: Latinos are the most important swing voters of the 2020s,” the New York Times reports.

“Democrats have made gains with Latinos over the past two years, winning back trust with a crucial group of voters who helped fuel President Trump’s return to the White House in 2024. Latino voters now favor Democrats over Republicans by 30 percentage points, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll.”

Introducing a New Way to Understand the Election

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Nate Cohn: “When the dust settles on election night, the story won’t simply be about who won, but who decided the outcome: Which demographic groups shifted the most, stayed home or delivered the decisive votes to the winners?”

“This year, we’re going to tell the demographic story of the election as we never have before. We will publish a new comprehensive portrait of how each of the key demographic groups in the country voted, called Times Voter Trends. It will break down estimates for the results of U.S. House and Senate elections by age, race, education and gender in every state in the country.”

Obama Slams Vivek Ramaswamy Over Ad

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“Former president Barack Obama said Saturday that Ohio Republican Vivek Ramaswamy showed desperation for the spotlight and a lack of decency by airing a campaign ad that featured the long-estranged mother of his Democratic rival Amy Acton,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Obama: “We’ve seen there’s no line he won’t cross, no low he won’t sink to, to try to get in the limelight.”

He added: “I don’t know what’s happened where the standards of behavior have gotten so low that someone can run an ad like that. There’s got to be something inside you where you say no office is worth stooping that low.”

Mediaite: Joe Manchin slams “vile” Vivek Ramaswamy ad in feisty video.

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

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“After two years of chaos and cruelty and corruption and incompetence, the likes of which we have not seen in the modern era, you get a chance to say, ‘Enough is enough.'”

— Former President Barack Obama, quoted by Agence France-Presse.

Obama Hits Campaign Trail with Harsh Words for Trump

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“Former President Barack Obama harshly criticized President Trump and Republicans in an Ohio rally Saturday, his first appearance at a midterm rally with less than two weeks until Election Day,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“He appeared alongside Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton and Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, both of whom are in neck-and-neck races. Brown’s face-off against incumbent Jon Husted, a Republican, could decide the balance of power in the Senate.”

“In a roughly 40-minute appearance, Obama cast Trump as responsible for high prices given his decision to wage war in Iran.”

As AOC’s Ambition Grows, Her Tactics Soften

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Wall Street Journal: “In the eight years since, Ocasio-Cortez has been the one to shift tactics—in ways that would have once seemed unthinkable for the firebrand leftist. The result is a political transformation reflecting real-world lessons about how to win in Washington.”

“The 37-year-old lawmaker has tempered her combative style, cozied up to establishment Democrats and distanced herself from some extreme positions pushed by other Democratic socialists—such as abolishing prisons and the police.”

“Whether or not Ocasio-Cortez decides to run for president in 2028—a much-talked-about possibility she says she is considering—she has tried to broaden the progressive base to include voters whose views don’t traditionally align with the far left, including Black voters and segments of MAHA.”

U.S. and Iran Edge Back Toward Full War

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“Inside the Trump administration, officials are expressing fears that Iran is in the ‘advanced stages’ of planning attacks against U.S. officials,” the New York Times reports.

“More than 6,000 miles away, the Iranians appear convinced that Israel and the United States are preparing to unleash their third major attack in 16 months, a final push to force Iran to surrender to U.S. demands.”

“The conflict in the Middle East has entered a new phase in which a maelstrom of factors, from the political calendars in the United States and Israel to the potential for all sides to be seeking pretexts for action, are creating heightened levels of tension and risk.”

NewsNation: Pentagon drafts Iran attack plans as Tehran threatens aggressive retaliation.

Trump Targets Low Testosterone in Troops

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“The Trump administration is targeting testosterone deficiency as a potential threat to military readiness, rolling out new screening guidelines for male service members amid growing concerns about the health of American men and the shrinking pool of young people qualified to serve,” the New York Post reports.

Bolsonaro and Lula in Dead Heat a Day Before Runoff

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“Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were statistically tied in a poll released on the eve of Brazil’s runoff election,” Bloomberg reports.

“Bolsonaro had 50.5% support to Lula’s 49.5%, according to the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll, a gap within the 2 percentage-point margin of error and little changed from Monday when the right-wing challenger led by less than a point.”

Democrats Challenge Bid to Block Alaska Certification

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“Democratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department’s effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses,” CNBC reports.

“Together, the groups argue that the executive branch lacks legal authority to intervene in state-run elections and is attempting an unprecedented override of state election administration with early voting already underway.”

Rick Hasen calls the Justice Department lawsuit the “weakest election law complaint ever.”

Hasen has more in Slate: “With just days to go before November’s midterms, the Department of Justice ended this week by launching its most desperate and unprofessional assaults on the American election system yet.”

Hundreds of Thousands Protest Across France

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“Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets across France on Saturday for a second consecutive weekend of protests against the cost of living—with clashes erupting between police and masked groups in Paris and other cities,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The demonstrations come despite a massive security deployment aimed at preventing a repeat of last week’s rioting and looting.”

Vanity Fair Told to Remove Jared Kushner Excerpt

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“Chad Mizelle, an attorney representing Jared Kushner, demanded that Vanity Fair take down a recently published book excerpt alleging that President Donald Trump’s son-in-law had access to secret foreign bank accounts during his first term,” The Wrap reports.

New · Out October 25, 2026Princes and Thieves
Jared Kushner and Mohamed bin Zayed's Secret Plot to Remake the Middle East
by Matthew Cole · Atria/One Signal Publishers
Buy on Amazon
HardcoverKindle
More on this book from Political Wire →

Trump Unleashes Justice Department On the Midterms

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“The Justice Department is sharply intensifying efforts to intervene in the midterm elections, goaded by a president unfettered by even the limited restraints of his first term,” the New York Times reports.

“The next several weeks represent a critical moment for federal law enforcement, a test of whether a department repurposed by President Trump as an instrument of unmediated executive power will be effectively mobilized as a guarantor of his political power.”

“In recent weeks, the department has taken several new steps, including an extraordinary effort to invalidate any potential Democratic victory in the Alaska Senate race, that reflect Mr. Trump’s growing agitation as his party faces the possibility of losing control of Congress precipitated by his sagging popularity.”

AI Leaders Become a Political Liability

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“Washington has always viewed Silicon Valley as culturally strange. But the current crop of AI leaders is becoming a monumental political liability,” Axios reports.

“Even pro-AI government officials and lawmakers wish AI founders would do what every other major industry chief does — shut up and just build their products … safely.”

“By centering the conversation around digital sentience and global catastrophe, AI leaders are turning an already complicated regulatory debate into an impossible moral panic.”

MAHA Sits Out the Midterms

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Wall Street Journal: “The MAHA-MAGA marriage is tenuous—and one reason is the frailty of Kennedy’s political apparatus. Most of the donors who gave last cycle to boost Kennedy and later his alliance with Trump are missing in the midterms.”

“Allied MAHA super PACs and nonprofits have spent far less than the $100 million promised, dropping only about $4 million in support of candidates since January 2025, according to federal election filings and news releases.”

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

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“I think Congress made a mistake not protesting turning the Rose Garden into what looks like the entrance to Liberace’s bathroom.”

— Former President Bill Clinton, quoted by The Wrap.

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

More about Taegan Goddard →