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Social Democrats Narrowly Win German Election

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“As Germany’s election results came into sharper focus on Monday, no party won decisive majority but the loser was clear: Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats,” the New York Times reports.

“After 16 years in power under Ms. Merkel’s leadership, they saw their share of the vote collapse by nearly nine points, garnering only 24.1 percent of the vote. It was the party’s worst showing in its history, and the election signaled the end of an era for Germany and for Europe.”

“The Social Democratic Party defeated Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union by 1.6 percentage points, according to preliminary official results reported early Monday. Their candidate, Olaf Scholz, insisted the party’s gain of five points from 2017 — giving them 25.7 percent of the vote — provided them a mandate to form the next government.”


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The Debt Limit Is Now a Dangerous Political Game

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New York Times: “The dance is repeating this fall, but this time the dynamics are different — and the threat of default is greater than ever.”

“Republicans in Congress have refused to help raise the nation’s debt limit, even though the need to borrow stems from the bipartisan practice of running large budget deficits. Republicans agree the U.S. must pay its bills, but on Monday they are expected to block a measure in the Senate that would enable the government to do so. Democrats, insistent that Republicans help pay for past decisions to boost spending and cut taxes, have so far refused to use a special process to raise the limit on their own.”

“Observers inside and outside Washington are worried neither side will budge in time, roiling financial markets and capsizing the economy’s nascent recovery from the pandemic downturn.”

Shutdown Plan B

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“The Senate will hold a futile vote Monday night — just 72 hours before a potential shutdown — on a House-passed bill to fund the government through Dec. 3 and raise the debt limit,” Axios reports.

“The bill is going to fail. Period. But then comes Plan B: A ‘clean’ continuing resolution — stripped of language about raising the debt limit — that Democrats spent the past week preparing.”

And a reminder: This is not normal.

Two House Moderates Back $3.5 Trillion Plan

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“Two of the nine House centrists who demanded Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) bring the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill to the floor by Monday are now publicly promising to vote for the separate $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package,” Axios reports.

“By explicitly announcing their support for a big package targeting climate change and expanding the social safety net, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) and Filemon Vela (D-TX) are trying to convince progressives to vote for the infrastructure bill this week.”

Capitol Hill Votes Will Make Global Waves

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“This epic week for President Biden on Capitol Hill is even bigger than his domestic agenda,” Axios reports.

“Biden has anchored his entire strategy for foreign affairs on the notion that ‘America is back.’ What that means in practice is that Biden needs to prove democracy works to rally America’s liberal allies against rising authoritarians.”

“A collapse of any or all of his four urgent legislative priorities — infrastructure, reconciliation, government funding and the debt ceiling — would deal a severe blow to the underlying theory of Biden’s presidency.”

CIA Plotted Assassination of Julian Assange

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Yahoo News: “In 2017, as Julian Assange began his fifth year holed up in Ecuador’s embassy in London, the CIA plotted to kidnap the WikiLeaks founder, spurring heated debate among Trump administration officials over the legality and practicality of such an operation.”

“Some senior officials inside the CIA and the Trump administration even discussed killing Assange, going so far as to request ‘sketches’ or ‘options’ for how to assassinate him.”

Sarah Huckabee Sanders Nationalizes Governor’s Race

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Associated Press: “Sanders’ celebrity as former President Donald Trump’s spokesperson granted her immediate front-runner status in one of the nation’s most Trump-friendly states. It’s also transforming politics in a place where voters in state races are used to hearing overwhelmingly about Arkansas taxes, Arkansas roads and Arkansas schools.”

“This is hardly the only state where local politics isn’t local anymore. Republican candidates for governor elsewhere also are focused more on President Joe Biden than their own opponents and on federal, rather than state, issues. And many Democrats would rather talk about Trump than about their rivals.”

Said Sanders: “As I travel around the state, I keep hearing this criticism, ‘Oh, there’s that Sarah Sanders, nationalizing the race.’ And my answer to those people is, ‘You bet I am.’ Because if you’re not paying attention to what is happening in this country, you’re missing what is going on.”

Exit Polls Show Close Race In Germany

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“The first exit poll from Sunday’s German elections showed the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) in a dead heat at 25%, leaving the race to succeed Angela Merkel too close to call,” Axios reports,

“A second exit poll showed the SPD narrowly ahead.”

How Democrats View the Midterms

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New York Times: “Liberals believe voters will punish them in 2022 if they do not fulfill Mr. Biden’s sweeping campaign agenda, in part because it would demoralize their core voters and ensure that some of them would stay home.”

“Some moderates, however, think that the historically difficult first midterm for the president’s party would be made worse if they handed Republicans fodder to portray them as tax-and-spend liberals at a moment when inflation has jumped.”

Said Sen. Mitch McConnell: “It’ll have a serious negative impact if they don’t pass it, and it’ll have a serious negative impact if they do pass it.”

Pelosi Says Final Spending Bill Will Be Smaller

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Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told ABC News that it “seems self-evident” that the final price tag for the Democrats’ budget reconciliation plan would be smaller than $3.5 trillion originally proposed.

Said Pelosi: “I think even those who want a smaller number support the vision of the president… We have to find our common ground, respectful of each other’s views. This isn’t about moderates versus progressives.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“The rhetoric is so overheated that I think it provides the basis for millions of people to accept an actual stolen election as payback for the falsely claimed earlier ‘stolen’ election. People are going to be more willing to cheat if they think they’ve been cheated out of their just desserts.”

— Election law expert Rick Hasen, in an interview with Politico.

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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