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Limiting SALT Cap Deduction Did Not Lead to Exodus

June 2, 2021 at 6:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Bloomberg: “The IRS data is finally in, and it didn’t happen. In the first year after the cap was put in place, zero-wage-tax states netted about $1.24 in new earnings from migrants for every $100 already earned there — slightly less than the net migration rates in the previous three years. Florida, the top destination among zero-tax states, netted $2.65, also a drop from the previous years’ rates. The trend remains broadly positive, but there was no SALT-cap bump.”

“Lawmakers from high-tax states want the cap nixed or pushed higher and are angling to win such a tweak as part of any package of forthcoming tax hikes… The statistics reinforce existing research that shows high-earning Americans are relatively resistant to leaving the markets where they first became successful.”

Next Jobs Report Could Upend Biden’s Agenda

June 2, 2021 at 6:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Businesses say they can’t find enough workers to hire. The pace of Americans moving off the unemployment rolls is slowing. And a top Federal Reserve official is warning that job trends in May might look ‘odd.’ All of that suggests that the next monthly U.S. employment report, which will be released Friday morning, may not show the robust growth that President Joe Biden needs to help pass his sweeping agenda.”

“Democrats have downplayed the concerns, maintaining that the path back to full employment was always going to be winding and stacked with challenges. And economists are predicting the report will show 630,000 jobs were created in May, a robust number. But while Biden has been polling strongly on his handling of the economy, a second straight month of slower-than-expected job creation could embolden critics of his multitrillion-dollar infrastructure spending plans and raise fears that the labor market is facing a long road back to normal.”

Why Did Biden Call Out Manchin and Sinema?

June 2, 2021 at 6:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Biden apparently called out Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) yesterday as key Democratic senators blocking passage of his agenda.

Playbook: “Both senators obviously relish their independence and would probably wear such a rebuke as a badge of honor if it were coming from anyone else. But Biden is the leader of the party, and he just flashed a bright green light to the rest of the Democratic establishment: If they want to go after either member, go for it. (Neither office wanted to weigh in on this when asked for comment.)”

“Republicans working on an infrastructure deal told us they were confused by the swipe.”

Said one top GOP aide: “What the president said today was not helpful. There is a genuine interest among Senate Republicans to get a bipartisan deal focused on core infrastructure. We know there are a handful of Senate Democrats also interested in that. To the extent that the president pushes those Dems away, that’s helpful to us. They already don’t want to vote for what Biden is offering.”

That GOP aide isn’t very clear about whether Biden’s comments were “helpful” or “not helpful.”

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Biden to Meet with Shelley Moore Capito

June 2, 2021 at 6:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Biden has rewarded her with a rare solo meeting that excludes the others. We’ll be looking to see if the president pulls a signature Biden move intended to build trust: clearing the room of staff so he and Capito can talk in private.”

“White House aides on Tuesday night were all singing from a similar hymnal about this meeting: Biden is serious about a deal. He allowed his Memorial Day deadline to lapse because he believes the negotiations are making progress. The political media has been too quick to describe these talks as dead after every speed bump, partly because we’ve all forgotten what negotiations look like. This is a working meeting — not something ceremonial.”

“Biden ran on his ability to cut deals, practiced over 44 years in Washington, and by elevating these infrastructure talks to a one-on-one with Capito he risks taking more of the blame if they fall apart.”

RNC Threatens GOP Candidate Won’t Debate In 2024

June 1, 2021 at 10:58 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel excoriated the Commission on Presidential Debates in a letter, threatening to advise any future Republican nominee against participating in general election presidential debates unless significant changes are made to the commission, CNN reports.

‘Family Matter’ Caused Sinema to Miss Vote

June 1, 2021 at 10:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) told the Arizona Republic that she missed a procedural vote on a bill to establish a commission to study the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection because she had a “family matter.”

She did not elaborate.

Democrats Win New Mexico Special Election

June 1, 2021 at 10:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Melanie Stansbury (D) has defeated Mark Moores (R) in New Mexico’s first congressional district special election to fill the unexpired term of Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the Albuquerque Journal reports.

Axios: “Stansbury’s victory Tuesday night will grow Democrats’ thin majority in the House to nine seats.”

It looks like a big win for Stansbury.

The Right Way to Reform the Filibuster

June 1, 2021 at 9:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

John Avlon looks at filibuster reforms which would “put the pressure on the obstructionists rather than the senators trying to… cross partisan lines.”

And thanks for the shout out to Political Wire!

Russian Agent Says Giuliani Was ‘Very Useful’

June 1, 2021 at 8:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A Ukrainian politician and businessman accused by both the Biden and Trump administrations of being an “active Russian agent,” described Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani as “very useful for me,” Time reports.

Tabloid Will Pay FEC Fine for Hush-Money Payment

June 1, 2021 at 7:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The tabloid publishing company that paid $150,000 to a former Playboy model in 2016 to suppress her account of an alleged affair with Donald Trump, then a presidential candidate, has agreed to pay $187,500 to the Federal Election Commission to settle accusations that the company violated campaign finance law in making the payment,” the New York Times reports.

“The commission found that the firm, American Media Inc., and its former chief executive, David Pecker, had ‘knowingly and willfully’ violated campaign laws by secretly routing the $150,000 payment to the former model, Karen McDougal, in coordination with senior officials with the Trump campaign, including Michael D. Cohen, who served as Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer at the time.”

Cuomo Moves Ahead with Re-Election Fundraiser

June 1, 2021 at 7:52 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) reelection campaign is hosting a fundraising event later this month, even as his political future remains uncertain amid multiple probes into the three-term governor, The Hill reports.

Pelosi Rules Out Biden Creating January 6 Commission

June 1, 2021 at 5:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Speaker Nancy Pelosi “is ruling out a presidential commission to study the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol, telling House Democrats on Tuesday that having President Joe Biden appoint a panel is unworkable even after the Senate blocked an independent probe last week,” the Associated Press reports.

“Pelosi laid out possible next steps after Friday’s Senate vote… The first option is to give the Senate another chance to vote on the commission.”

“The other options involve the House investigating the attack, meaning the probes would be inherently partisan.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

June 1, 2021 at 5:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I hear all the folks on TV saying why doesn’t Biden get this done? Well because Biden only has a majority of effectively four votes in the House and a tie in the Senate, with two members of the Senate who vote more with my Republican friends.”

— President Joe Biden, quoted by CBS News.

Biden Taps Harris to Push for Voting Protections

June 1, 2021 at 5:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Biden vowed to ramp up efforts to fight voter suppression laws Tuesday as he commemorated the 100th anniversary of the massacre here that ravaged a once-prosperous Black business district and neighborhood,” the Washington Post reports.

“Biden announced he was tapping Vice President Harris to lead the administration’s work to protect voting rights and assailed the Republican-led efforts to restrict voting rights in states across the country.”

Said Biden: “This sacred right is under assault with incredible intensity like I’ve never seen.”

It will be interesting to see if putting Harris in charge of selling HR1 will help make the sale to Joe Manchin. She’s had to mend fences with him before.

Trump Will Try Again to Sell His D.C. Hotel

June 1, 2021 at 5:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Former president Donald Trump’s company has again hired a broker to sell the lease to its D.C. hotel, according to two people familiar with the discussions, a second attempt to unload the property after the pandemic thwarted a previous effort,” the Washington Post reports.

Texas Speaker Pushes Back on Abbot’s Pay Threat

June 1, 2021 at 5:15 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan (R) said Tuesday he is concerned by Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) recent vow to veto a section of the state budget that funds the Legislature, citing how the move to block such pay could impact staffers and legislative agencies,” the Texas Tribune reports.

“Phelan also said he thinks that, under the Constitution, lawmakers would still have to be paid even if Abbott carried out his veto. Lawmakers are paid $600 a month in addition to a per diem of $221 every day the Legislature is in session, both during regular and special sessions.”

Baker Mum on Whether He’ll Run Again

June 1, 2021 at 5:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Fresh off a trip to Tennessee for Republican Governors Association meetings, Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA) is still not yet saying if he’ll run for re-election in 2022,” Mass Live reports.

“Earlier this week, people close to Baker told the News Service his re-engagement with the RGA could be a sign that he is leaning in the direction of running for a third term but that he had yet to share a final decision with top aides.”

Will Trump’s Low-Propensity Voters Be Back?

June 1, 2021 at 4:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “New data on the 2020 election show that then-President Donald Trump drew substantial support in some battleground states from Americans who had skipped prior elections, creating a new pool of voters whose decisions on whether to participate again will be central to next year’s midterms.”

“New analyses by TargetSmart, a Democratic voter-data firm, and the Republican National Committee found that more of these low-propensity voters chose to register as Republicans than Democrats in several of the closest battlegrounds, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida.”

“In Pennsylvania, for example, more than 600,000 voters who cast ballots in 2020 had been eligible to vote in prior general elections but never did… More of these newly engaged voters registered as Republicans than Democrats by about 6 percentage points, giving the GOP an edge of about 35,400 voters in a fiercely competitive state—though one which Mr. Biden won.”

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Bircher: A Bircher is an adherent to the teachings and philosophies of the John Birch Society, an anti-communist organization founded in 1958.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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