Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 187
Bad Instincts
Fiji officials, on behalf of the United States, have seized a massive Russian-owned yacht worth more than $300 million, CBS News reports.
Ken Dilanian: “What’s so interesting about all these seizures is that they are not based on new law. Only thing one thing has changed: political will.”
Jonathan Last: “And as we pass this horrific milestone, the Republican party—the party which made 1 million deaths possible—is ascendant. Republicans will almost certainly retake control of the House and probably the Senate six months from now. Donald Trump is the odds-on favorite to be elected president again in 2024.”
“And the million death mark is, at most, a secondary news story. It will have no bearing on the future of our politics.”
“Today, think about the dead. Think about the people responsible for their deaths. And think about what sort of future a democracy can have when the political system is designed to soften accountability in one direction and heighten it in the other.”
Washington Post: Voters increasingly credit Democrats for pandemic turnaround.
William Saletan: “Morally, this reticence seems bizarre. For half a century, Republicans have campaigned on promises to expunge Roe. They said millions of unborn lives were at stake. Now victory is at hand, but McConnell won’t talk about it. Why not?”
“The answer is simple: He knows this issue is bad for his party. Roe infuriated pro-life Americans and made pro-choice Americans complacent. Republican candidates could use the issue to rile up their base without risking an electoral backlash. But if Roe goes down, Americans who want to keep abortion legal will have to vote that way. And those Americans are a political majority.”
First Read: How do we know that the early political read from Roe v. Wade’s likely demise looks dangerous for the GOP? Because while conservative activists have been over-the-moon happy about Justice Samuel Alito’s draft opinion overturning Roe, elected Republicans and GOP candidates have been much more cautious. Even a bit nervous.”
New York Times: “Republicans in many states have grown increasingly tired of the Stop the Steal movement and the push by Mr. Trump to reward election deniers and punish those who accept President Biden’s victory. At a time when Mr. Biden’s approval ratings are sinking, leaders in the party are urging candidates to focus instead on the economy, inflation and other kitchen-table issues.”
“But 12 weeks before its Republican primary in August, Arizona shows just how firm of a grasp Mr. Trump and his election conspiracy theories still have at every level of the party, from local activists to top statewide candidates.”
“John Roberts is heading a Supreme Court in crisis,” the AP reports.
“The chief justice has already ordered an investigation of the leak this week of a draft opinion suggesting the court could be poised to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 case legalizing abortion nationwide. What comes next could further test Roberts’ leadership of a court where his vote already appears less crucial in determining the outcome in contentious cases.”
Abortion rights groups are calling for coordinated marches on May 14th in Washington, D.C., Chicago, New York and Los Angeles, Vice News reports.
Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) boasts he’s been “relentless” in seeking to restore fiscal responsibility and “common sense” when it comes to the “bloated” federal government, CNN reports.
“Yet Gosar doesn’t seem to practice what he preaches.”
“A review conducted by the nonpartisan watchdog Moonlight Foundation of the self-described fiscal conservative’s spending shows he has spent more taxpayer dollars on travel than any other member of the House over the past five years — an unusual amount of money spent by a rank-and-file member who has served in the minority for part of that time and has built a scant record of legislative accomplishments.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The potential demise of Roe vs. Wade could both help Democrats generate higher turnout and appeal better to persuadable, Republican-leaning swing voters in the 2022 election who generally have a concern about women losing access to safe and legal abortion services.”
But a big caveat: “It’s unclear whether abortion opinions would outweigh the public’s opinions about other issues where Democrats are vulnerable.”
Earlier for members: How Abortion Could Help Democrats Keep the Senate
Charlie Sykes: “J.D. Vance made a judgment about what Republican voters wanted in 2022, and (with apologies to Mencken) he gave it to them good and hard. That’s worth considering for a moment.”
“The former Marine, Ivy League law school grad and bestselling author had a strategy… Bankrolled by billionaire Peter Thiel, Vance was willing to drink deeply from the cup of self-humiliation and demagoguery, because that is what Trump demands.”
“But even more important: This is what the GOP voting base wants.”
“For Vance, that meant not only abandoning many of his former principles (including his oft-stated distaste for Trump, whom he once compared to Hitler), but any pretense to a principled or intellectually coherent platform.”
“Inflation in Turkey soared to an annual rate of almost 70 per cent in April as high global energy prices and the weak lira fuelled a surge in the cost of food, transport and other basic needs,” the Financial Times reports.
A new University of Texas at Austin poll finds 78% of Texas voters think abortion should be allowed in some form, while just 15% said access to the procedure should be completely outlawed.
“A pair of new Omicron subvariants has emerged, raising the possibility that survivors of earlier Omicron strains can get reinfected,” the South China Morning Post reports.
Said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong: “It really came out of the blue over the weekend. We were already settling down with BA.2.12.1, and then BA.4 and BA.5? It just seems like the latest chapter of a never-ending saga.”
Eric Topol: Covid vaccines need to be evolving much faster.
“European business leaders in China have warned that Beijing’s zero-Covid policy is threatening foreign investment, as the Chinese services sector plunged to its weakest level of activity in over two years because of strict lockdown measures,” the Financial Times reports.
“Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is facing backlash after questioning how many ‘over-educated, under-loved’ women have participated in protests supporting abortion rights after a draft ruling from the Supreme Court showed that the bench is poised to roll back Roe v. Wade,” The Hill reports.
Vanity Fair: Matt Gaetz accidentally reminds people he’s a loser who allegedly has to pay women for sex.
“Republicans in the Louisiana House advanced a bill Wednesday that would classify abortion as homicide and allow prosecutors to criminally charge patients, with supporters citing a draft opinion leaked this week showing the Supreme Court ready to overturn Roe v. Wade,” the Washington Post reports.
“The legislation, which passed through a committee on a 7-to-2 vote, goes one step further than other antiabortion bans that have gained momentum in recent years, which focus on punishing abortion providers and others who help facilitate the procedure.”
Rolling Stone quoted state Rep. Danny McCormick (R): “We can’t wait on the Supreme Court.”
“Overpaying a staff member hardly seems like Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s (R-NC) biggest scandal these days, but a Daily Beast investigation into Cawthorn’s compensation for his chief of staff reveals a cut-and-dried ethics violation—one his office appears to have tried (and failed) to skirt.”
Jonathan Bernstein: “Depending on who is doing the counting, the U.S. either just has or is about to hit a milestone: 1 million Covid-19 deaths.”
“This seems like as good a time as any for Congress to put together a serious commission focused on what went right, what went wrong and what needs to change about the way the country handles pandemics. It’s going to be hard to do, because the current presidential administration isn’t going to want a thorough examination of its mistakes and the previous administration is hostile to the whole concept of oversight, accountability, transparency, and, for that matter, professionalism in government.”
“So it’s probably up to a bipartisan group in Congress to take the initiative.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.