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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 187

Bad Instincts

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 187: Bad Instincts

Understanding Roe v. Wade

May 5, 2022 at 7:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A must-listen: The “Slow Burn” podcast will return next month with the new season focused on the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.

Washington Post: Memories of pre-Roe America, from people who were there.

Evidence Suggests 600 Killed In Theater Airstrike

May 5, 2022 at 7:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Amid all the horrors that have unfolded in the war on Ukraine, the Russian bombing of the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theater in Mariupol on March 16 stands out as the single deadliest known attack against civilians to date.”

“An Associated Press investigation has found evidence that the attack was in fact far deadlier than estimated, killing closer to 600 people inside and outside the building. That’s almost double the death toll cited so far, and many survivors put the number even higher.”

Playbook: “It’s a major piece of investigative journalism that essentially documents what could be one of the worst war crimes of the 21st century.”

Biden Eyes Anthony Foxx for Top White House Role

May 5, 2022 at 7:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Biden is considering former Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx to replace Cedric Richmond as the head of the White House Office of Public Engagement, Axios reports.

Republicans Seek to Change the Subject from Abortion

May 5, 2022 at 7:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “That day now appears to be at hand. An extraordinary leak of a draft opinion this week indicated that the Supreme Court may be on the cusp of overturning Roe and probably triggering new restrictions on abortion in some two dozen states. Yet few Republicans have openly celebrated, even though Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.’s opinion would, if adopted by the court, fulfill what is perhaps the conservative movement’s single most enduring policy goal.”

“Instead, many GOP lawmakers — including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, an architect of a conservative revolution in the federal courts — said they were more concerned about the leak and its implications than the substance of the opinion. Many ascribed the subdued reaction to mere wariness over celebrating a decision that has not actually been handed down.”

“Several other Republicans said they saw no advantage in engaging in the debate over abortion rights that Democrats have been eager to spark in recent days.”

The Book J.D. Vance Doesn’t Want You to Read

May 5, 2022 at 7:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook found a Dropbox folder with dozens of campaign strategy documents from a super PAC supporting Ohio U.S. Senate candidate J.D. Vance, including PDFs of two versions of a “JD Vance vulnerability analysis.”

It is essentially a “how to” guide for attacking Vance.

A Biden-Trump Rematch Is Increasingly Likely

May 5, 2022 at 6:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The current president has had repeated conversations with allies that he would need to run again to prevent Trump from reclaiming the Oval Office. Like he did in 2020, Biden views Trump as an existential threat to American democracy. And like he did in 2020, Biden thinks he’s the only one who can beat him. He plans to more aggressively target Trump as the midterm season approaches — both as a means of turning around his party’s standing for the midterms but also to set up a contrast for the future…”

Said Democratic strategist Paul Begala: “Everything is frozen until after the midterms. I expect Biden to run, I hope he runs. And I think if there is a credible primary challenger against Biden there is almost a certain Trump victory.”

Quote of the Day

May 5, 2022 at 6:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I don’t delude myself into thinking I have a big swath of the Republican Party. It’s hard to imagine anything that would derail his support. So if he wants to become the nominee in ‘24, I think he’s very likely to achieve that.”

— Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), quoted by Politico, on Donald Trump running for president again.

Biden Is an Unlikely Abortion Rights Champion

May 5, 2022 at 6:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “For President Biden, the threat to the landmark Roe decision represents a singular challenge as he attempts to put aside a long history of evident discomfort with the issue of abortion to transform himself into a champion of the constitutional right that may soon be erased from the law books.”

“Over the course of a half-century in national politics, Mr. Biden has rarely been the full-throated backer of abortion rights that activists have sought, evolving from an outright critic of Roe early in his career to a seemingly reluctant and largely quiet supporter. While he has used the word ‘abortion’ in written statements as president, he had never spoken the word out loud since taking office until this week when the draft ruling leaked.”

White House Scrambles for Ways to Protect Abortion

May 5, 2022 at 6:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In the hours after a leaked Supreme Court document signaled the court was poised to overturn Roe v. Wade in the coming weeks, President Biden vowed to fight to protect access to abortion,” the Washington Post reports.

“But in marathon meetings and phone calls among White House officials, government lawyers, outside advisers and federal agency officials, a sobering reality settled in: There’s little the White House can do that will fundamentally alter a post-Roe landscape. While officials have spent months planning for the possibility the court would overturn the landmark ruling, the leaked document caught the White House off guard.”

Abortion Pills Stand to Become the Next Battleground

May 5, 2022 at 6:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, the legal and culture wars over abortion that have consumed the United States for decades would increasingly be fought on a new front: abortion pills,” the New York Times reports.

“Medication abortion — a two-drug combination that can be taken at home or in any location and is authorized for use in the first 10 weeks of pregnancy — has become more and more prevalent and now accounts for more than half of recent abortions in the United States. If the federal guarantee of abortion rights disappears, medication abortion would likely become an even more sought-after method for terminating a pregnancy — and the focus of battles between states that ban abortion and those that continue to allow it.”

Texas May ‘Resurrect’ Case Requiring Education for All

May 4, 2022 at 11:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Gov. Greg Abbott said Wednesday that Texas would consider challenging a 1982 U.S. Supreme Court decision requiring states to offer free public education to all children, including those of undocumented immigrants,” the Austin America-Statesman reports.

Samuel Alito Cancels Public Appearance

May 4, 2022 at 8:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has canceled an appearance at a judicial conference set to begin on Thursday after a draft decision he wrote indicating the high court would overturn its landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that guaranteed the right to abortion nationwide was leaked,” Reuters reports.

Madison Cawthorn Responds to ‘Sex Tape’

May 4, 2022 at 8:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) responds to a purported gay “sex tape” of him being shared on social media:

“A new hit against me just dropped. Years ago, in this video, I was being crass with a friend, trying to be funny. We were acting foolish, and joking. That’s it.”

He added: “I’m not backing down. I told you there would be a drip drip campaign. Blackmail won’t win. We will.”

U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals

May 4, 2022 at 7:47 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The United States has provided intelligence that has helped Ukrainians target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war,” the New York Times reports.

“Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.”

“The targeting help is part of a classified effort by the Biden administration to provide real-time battlefield intelligence to Ukraine. That intelligence also includes anticipated Russian troop movements gleaned from recent American assessments of Moscow’s secret battle plan for the fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, the officials said. Officials declined to specify how many generals had been killed as a result of U.S. assistance.”

Madison Cawthorn Plummets In New Poll

May 4, 2022 at 7:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A poll commissioned by a national Republican organization shows Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s (R-NC) lead in the eight-way GOP primary “has dropped markedly following coverage of his controversies and missteps,” the Asheville Citizen Times reports.

Nonetheless, Cawthorn still leads his nearest challenger, Chuck Edwards (R), 38% to 21%.

Cawthorn led 49% to 14% in the March poll.

Republicans Could Rue Ending Abortion Rights

May 4, 2022 at 7:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Marc Johnson and Robert Saldin: “Republicans have effectively harnessed the grievance that comes with a feeling of being cheated, leaning on it to mobilize, organize and consolidate the conservative movement that has fueled the GOP ever since.”

“But if the court overturns its line of decisions protecting abortion rights in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, it will leave a very different set of Americans aggrieved. Supporters of abortion rights will fume over something long taken for granted being suddenly stripped away. And a fight in deeply conservative Idaho three decades ago indicates that their anger could scramble the politics of abortion.”

Militia Wanted Trump to Authorize Stopping Transfer

May 4, 2022 at 6:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Stewart Rhodes, the Oath Keepers militia group leader charged with seditious conspiracy over the January 6 attack on the Capitol, tried to get a Donald Trump confidant to ask the former US president to allow his group to forcibly stop the peaceful transfer of power,“ The Guardian reports.

“The previously unknown phone call with the unidentified individual appears to indicate the Oath Keepers had contacts with at least one person close enough to Trump that Rhodes believed the individual would be a good person to consult with his request.”

U.S. Reaches One Million Deaths from Covid-19

May 4, 2022 at 5:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

U.S. surpasses one million Covid-19 deaths, according to data compiled by NBC News — “a once unthinkable scale of loss even for the country with the world’s highest recorded toll from the virus.”

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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