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Bad Instincts

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 187: Bad Instincts

Trump’s Grip on the GOP Is Stronger Than Ever

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Sarah Longwell: “Mr. Vance’s win will likely come as a disappointment to some Republicans who have been quietly hoping that Mr. Trump’s grip on the party is slipping. They see the midterms as an existential moment for the party. They are acutely aware that if the candidates he endorsed do well, the feeling of inevitability that he will be the party’s nominee in 2024 increases, annihilating any hope of reconstituting a political coalition around anything other than fealty to Mr. Trump…”

“Yet conservatives must be honest. At this time, there is no moving past Mr. Trump. He has remade the Republican Party in his image, and many Republican voters now crave his particular brand of combative politics.”

“In races across the country, Republicans who have won Mr. Trump’s endorsement mention it constantly. Even those who didn’t win his endorsement still mention him constantly. Mr. Trump might not have endorsed them, but they all endorse him.”

Trump Official Altered 2020 Russian Interference Report

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“A top Trump political appointee delayed a report on Russian election interference in the 2020 election in a way that created the perception that intelligence was politicized, according to a new report by the Department of Homeland Security watchdog,” NBC News reports.

The probe also found that employees made changes to the analysis “that appear to be based in part on political considerations.”

‘The Nation’s Most Distinguished Superspreader Event’

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“Trevor Noah joked about the event becoming a superspreader — and now the cases are rolling in,” CNN reports.

“In the days since WHCD weekend, reporters and staffers from CNN, ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, Politico, and other participating news organizations have tested positive for the virus. Most notably, ABC’s Jon Karl, who shook hands with President Biden and who sat next to Kim Kardashian, has fallen ill.”

The GOP’s Center Lane for 2024 Is Narrow

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Politico: “The best case for a Republican presidential candidate not attached at the hip to Trump in 2024 is that Trump doesn’t run, and that a massive field of Trumps-in-waiting cannibalize one another, leaving a lane open for a more traditionalist Republican.”

“That scenario got its first real test in Ohio on Tuesday, and for the establishment, the results weren’t promising.”

Biden Officials Divided Over Easing China Tariffs

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Wall Street Journal: “On one side of the debate within the administration are Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who favor easing the tariffs on some of the roughly $360 billion annually of Chinese imports put in place under the Trump administration.”

“On the other are Trade Representative Katherine Tai and others who are reluctant to relinquish U.S. leverage over China in a continuing effort to reshape Chinese economic behavior.”

Fed Poised to Hike Rates by Half-Point

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“The Federal Reserve is set to ratchet up on Wednesday its efforts to withdraw the unprecedented stimulus it showered on the U.S. economy after the coronavirus pandemic upended global economies two years ago,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Fed officials are poised to raise their benchmark rate by a half percentage point and approve plans to start shrinking their $9 trillion asset portfolio.”

Taking Away Rights

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Ruth Marcus: “The court has overruled decisions before, but it has never removed an existing, established constitutional right. Now, we have every reason to believe it is prepared to do so, and in a way that would give states maximum leeway. If the draft becomes the law of the land, state legislatures will be free to restrict all abortion, in almost all circumstances.”

J.D. Vance’s Trump-like Effect

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“If J.D. Vance follows his Tuesday night victory in Ohio’s Senate primary with a general election win in November he’ll arrive in a Washington filled with enemies and be seen as arguably the hardest-edged populist nationalist in the Senate GOP,” Axios reports.

“The Republican establishment privately regards Vance with the same disgust many felt toward Donald Trump when he entered the White House on Jan. 20, 2017.”

Minority Women Have Most to Lose in Abortion Ruling

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“If you are Black or Hispanic in a conservative state that already limits access to abortions, you are far more likely than a white woman to have one,” the AP reports.

“And if the U.S. Supreme court allows states to further restrict or even ban abortions, minority women will bear the brunt of it.”

Trump Delivered Win for J.D. Vance in Ohio

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“J.D. Vance’s victory in the Ohio Senate primary on Tuesday was an unmistakable victory for Donald Trump,” Politico reports.

“It’s fair to say Trump’s endorsement put Vance over the top. That matters for two reasons. First, we’re still early in the primary season, and Republicans in other states are closely watching Ohio. The Vance victory will keep the premium on Trump’s brand, while Trump-critical Republicans will have every incentive not to draw many distinctions with the former president. Second, Trump is obsessed with his win-loss record in the midterms. His victory in Ohio, the first major test of his influence, is setting a tone.”

David Leonhardt: “Most one-term presidents recede from the political scene, with their party’s voters happy to see them go. But Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican Party a year and a half after he lost re-election.”

Suddenly GOP Steers Clear of Abortion Politics

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“Senate Republicans gathered behind closed doors on Tuesday afternoon for the first time since a bombshell draft Supreme Court decision that would strike down Roe v. Wade was leaked,” CNN reports.

“But rather than celebrating a milestone that most of them have spent decades trying to achieve — banning abortion — Republicans instead focused on another issue: How the document became public, underscoring the political sensitivity of their potential and long-awaited victory.”

Washington Post: Republicans reluctant to tout Roe decision they have long sought.

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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