The 2012 presidential election is less than a year away, but voters across the country head to the polls today to decide thousands of local races.

First Read is watching five contests: 1) the referendum on the anti-collective-bargaining law in Ohio, where polls close at 7:30 pm ET; 2) the governor’s race in Kentucky, where all polls close at 7:00 pm ET; 3) the governor’s race in Mississippi, where polls close at 8:00 pm ET; 4) the “personhood”/abortion amendment in Mississippi; and 5) the battle of control for the state Senate in Virginia, where polls close at 7:00 pm ET.

David Nir provides a handy “pocket guide” to today’s elections.

Heidi Heitkamp (D) will run for U.S. Senate in North Dakota for the seat being vacated next year by Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), The Hill reports.

Democrats instantly called the race “the new toss-up” while releasing a poll showing that Heitkamp’s likely rival Rick Berg (R) leads a generic
Democrat by just four points, 44% to 40%.

CNN: “Democrats were quick to tout Heitkamp’s independent streak in the state that went for Sen. John McCain in 2008 and former President George W. Bush in 2004. While no Democrat has won the state in a presidential election since 1964, the party controlled the state’s entire congressional delegation until last year.”

First Read: “If Obama is sitting pretty with his African-American base, the same can’t be said with the middle of the country. In our poll, 56% of independents, 57% of suburban residents, and 52% of folks from the Midwest disapprove of the president’s job. And in a hypothetical match-up against Romney, independents and suburban residents swing for Romney, while folks from the Midwest are split between Obama and Romney. So if Obama’s base could explain why he wins re-election, his struggles with the middle of the country could explain why he loses in 2012.”

The ABC News Frustration Index — based on presidential approval, ratings of the economy, dissatisfaction with the government — is now at 72 on its scale of 0 to 100, one of its highest readings on record.

The index “correlates closely with election outcomes, including the rate at which incumbents
are re-elected and the loss or gain of House seats by the incumbent
president’s party.”

Herman Cain will address the latest sexual harassment allegations
against him at a news conference later this afternoon.

According to ABC News, Cain did take questions from comedian Jimmy Kimmel last night about the latest woman to say Cain sexually harassed her.

Said Cain: “At least it wasn’t one of the many that have the first name ‘Anonymous’ — so now this one actually had a name and a face and we’re gonna see who it was and what it was, and tomorrow we’re gonna have a press conference.”

Politico: “Beyond the charges themselves, the widening scandal is now threatening Cain in another way: the story has begun to loom so heavily over the GOP race that it’s irritating Republicans who want to focus on defeating President Obama.”

A new JMC Enterprises poll in Iowa shows Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied atop the Republican presidential field with 20% each, followed by Newt Gingrich at 16%.

The rest of the field: Michele Bachmann at 6%, Ron Paul at 6%, Rick Perry at 4%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Former First Lady Laura Bush offers some first-hand advice to the spouses of the 2012 presidential candidates, reports Politico.

Said
Bush: “Very few people ever in the world have the opportunity to…be
involved in the presidential campaign, so I would say to all of them,
you know, remember these moments and take advantage of the experience,
the life experience, that they are offered… It is a really grueling
process, the campaigns are. And I think that’s good because it’s very
grueling to live there.”

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/theGrio.com poll
finds that 49% of African-Americans feel the country is headed
in the right direction, versus 38% who say the country is on the
wrong track. That’s a sharp contrast from recent polling which shows an
overwhelming majority of all Americans who say the country is on the
wrong track.

Interestingly, an overwhelming 86% of African-Americans said they approve of the
president’s handling of the economy. By contrast, 57% of overall
respondents disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy,
versus just 40% who approve.

The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Mitt Romney with a slight edge over Herman Cain, 28% to 27%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 13%, Ron Paul at 10% and Rick Perry at 10%.

The remainder of the field received less than 5% support.

In general election match ups, President Obama leads Romney by six points, 49% to 43%, and tops Cain by 15 points, 53% to 38%.

A new Pew Research survey finds that Americans who have heard about the sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain, on balance, think they are true rather than false, 39% to 24%.

However, there is a big difference between people who identify with one of the two major political parties. Among Democrats, 51% to 14% think the allegations are true. Among Republicans, 39% to 29% believe they are false.

Coming in January: The Real Romney by Michael Kranish and Scott Helman.

Sharon Bialek told reporters at a press conference that Herman Cain had inappropriately touched her when she asked him for help finding a job. When she resisted, Bialek said Cain told her, “You want a job, don’t you?”

The Cain campaign immediately denied the story saying all sexual harassment accusations are “completely false.”

Some reactions:

Ben Smith: “Gloria Allred knows what she’s doing, and the details of Sharon
Bialek’s story today just look quite awful for Herman Cain. These things
always do in their details, and the press conference ended a streak in
which allegations had remained vague.”

Michelle Malkin: “Twittersphere is lighting up with diverse reaction from
conservatives. Some find Bialek ‘very credible.’ More obituaries being
written for Cain. I need to know more.”

Andrew Sullivan: “Absent any more details, all I can say is that, at the very least, Cain
needs to respond to this specific allegation. I believe the woman, but I
tend to believe most professional women who give credible evidence of
abuse of power by bosses.”

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