“President Trump and his allies have crafted a face-saving plan if Democrats trounce their way to a House majority — tout Trump as the savior of Republicans in the Senate,” Politico reports.

“In public and private, Trump and advisers are pointing to the president’s surge of campaigning on behalf of Republican Senate candidates — 19 rallies alone since Labor Day — as evidence that nobody else could have had a bigger impact in the states. The argument is classic Trump, who despite making the midterms a referendum on his own presidency, has a history of personalizing and then dwelling on his victories while distancing himself and diverting attention from his losses.”

First Read: “For all of the attention on the fired-up base voters (Trump supporters vs. urban/suburban women), it’s also important to keep an eye on the middle of the electorate.”

“In our Arizona poll, Sinema was winning independents by 26 points (58 percent to 32 percent); just 33 percent of independents approved of Trump’s job performance; and indies preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent).”

“In our Indiana poll, Donnelly was winning independents by 23 points (54 percent to 31 percent); just 39 percent of indies approved of Trump’s job; and independents preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 9 points (47 percent to 38 percent).”

“And in our Tennessee poll, Dem Phil Bredesen was winning indies by 24 points (59 percent to 35 percent); just 42 percent of indies approved of Trump’s job; and indies preferred a Dem-controlled by 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent).”

David Brooks: “This is not a wave election; it’s a realignment election. The results Tuesday will not be shaped by some crest of momentum behind the Democrats. They are going to be shaped by the fact that people are hardening into their categories, and those categories tend to produce a Democratic House and a Republican Senate.”