Watching the Independent Vote

First Read: “For all of the attention on the fired-up base voters (Trump supporters vs. urban/suburban women), it’s also important to keep an eye on the middle of the electorate.”

“In our Arizona poll, Sinema was winning independents by 26 points (58 percent to 32 percent); just 33 percent of independents approved of Trump’s job performance; and indies preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent).”

“In our Indiana poll, Donnelly was winning independents by 23 points (54 percent to 31 percent); just 39 percent of indies approved of Trump’s job; and independents preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 9 points (47 percent to 38 percent).”

“And in our Tennessee poll, Dem Phil Bredesen was winning indies by 24 points (59 percent to 35 percent); just 42 percent of indies approved of Trump’s job; and indies preferred a Dem-controlled by 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent).”