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Why Trump Can’t Convince Anyone on Health Care

July 19, 2017 at 11:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ezra Klein: “The core problem is Trump has no idea what he’s talking about on health care and never bothered to learn. ‘Nobody knew health care could be so complicated,’ he famously, and absurdly, said. His inability to navigate its complexities meant he couldn’t make persuasive arguments on behalf of the bills he supported, and he routinely made statements that undercut the legislative process and forced Republicans to defend the indefensible.”

“Because Trump doesn’t understand the legislation or the trade-offs it made, he can’t make persuasive arguments on its behalf in public or private, and so he mostly doesn’t try. Trump and his team are not frequent presences in the public debate trying to sell the legislation they’re so keen to sign. That’s one reason the various bills routinely polled around 20 percent — without Trump using the bully pulpit to argue on behalf of the legislation, critics, terrible Congressional Budget Office reports, and news of congressional infighting filled the void.”

“When Trump does weigh in, it’s often a disaster.”

Trump’s Electoral Coalition Isn’t a Governing Coalition

July 19, 2017 at 9:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Amy Walter makes the observation that Donald Trump’s “Blue Wall” busting coalition that helped him win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, hasn’t translated to governing success.

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Quote of the Day

July 19, 2017 at 9:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“This is an impossible hand.”

— Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX), quoted by Politico, on his party’s “fragile majority” and inability to pass legislation.


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Why the GOP May Not Be Punished for Health Bill Failure

July 19, 2017 at 9:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Most Republican voters say they don’t like Obamacare and the assumption has been that they are motivated to vote for candidates who want to repeal the law.

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Why Republicans Still Stick By Trump

July 19, 2017 at 9:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Paul Waldman: “Most of us see politics as a grand contest between parties and nationally-known figures. Politicians who want to keep their jobs have to think much smaller. So imagine you’re a Republican member of Congress from Kansas or Idaho or Alabama. Trump won your district by 25 points, and you barely had to campaign against your token Democratic opponent. Fox News and Rush Limbaugh play from the speakers in every diner and gas station in your district. The folks you talk to back home may have some misgivings about one thing or another that the administration is doing, but they are united in their hatred of liberals, Democrats, and the mainstream national media.”

“That’s why the only real political danger you worry about is a primary challenge from the right. You know that while Trump’s approval ratings rarely break 40 percent, his approval among Republican voters is still around 85 percent… And the Republicans who vote in primaries tend to be even more conservative than Republican voters overall.”

“Some version of that story describes most Republicans in Congress.”

Republicans Think Trump Isn’t Smart Enough for Collusion

July 19, 2017 at 8:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

McKay Coppins: “When I floated this idea to Capitol Hill Republicans, they generally found it preposterous. They were willing to allow for the possibility that some Trump campaign officials might have inappropriately cooperated with Russians, but they said the president and his team were simply too incompetent to pull off a high-level House of Cards-style conspiracy. At worst, they seemed to believe Team Trump’s collusion amounted to a ‘conspiracy of dunces’ (as a recent Ross Douthat column termed it)—embarrassing and unseemly, sure, but certainly not so grave as to demand blowing up the entire GOP agenda to address it.”

Said one senior Senate aide: “I think most of us agree that if something did happen, it wasn’t anything malicious … it’s just chalked up to them not being very smart.”

Health Care Bill Enters Zombie Phase

July 19, 2017 at 8:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Klein: “The GOP health care proposals are now in their zombie phase, and the undead can be hard to kill off. Perhaps that’s why President Trump is responding to major setbacks by attacking just about everybody — Democrats, Republicans and even the people who depend on Obamacare for their health insurance — if he’s serious about letting insurance markets fail now. Where he’s not assigning blame, of course, is on himself: ‘I’m not going to own it,’ the president declared.”

“That – aside from being a stunning abdication of presidential responsibility, if he’s serious — means that the White House plan is that there is no plan. The president will lunch with all Republican senators today to try to change minds one last time. But in blaming basically everybody, Trump’s own actions have given those senators no real political wiggle room. Just because Trump doesn’t have a strategy, though, doesn’t mean Republicans in Congress can’t. A failed vote next week would free up lawmakers to go rogue, and even – gasp – talk to people on the other side of the aisle.”

Sam Baker: “It ain’t over until it’s over, and there’s still some chatter bouncing around Capitol Hill about last-minute shenanigans or a Hail Mary on the Senate floor. And President Trump is sure to put some serious pressure on the moderates this afternoon when all of the Republican senators lunch with him at the White House. But unless something dramatic changes, Washington appears to be about done with the repeal-and-replace phase of the debate over the Affordable Care Act.”

Trump’s Magic Mirror

July 19, 2017 at 8:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The New York Times compares Fox & Friends to an interactive children’s show trying to keep a distractible audience’s attention.

“President Trump is the show’s subject, its programmer, its publicist and its virtual fourth host. The stars offer him flattery, encouragement and advice. When he tweets, his words and image appear on a giant video wall. It’s the illusion of children’s TV — that your favorite show is as aware of you as you are of it — except that for Mr. Trump, it’s real.”

House GOP Can’t Even Pass Its Spending Bill

July 19, 2017 at 7:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“House GOP leaders are resorting to Plan B on their spending strategy after falling woefully short of the support needed to pass a massive government funding package without Democratic votes,” Politico reports.

“Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced Tuesday night that the House will vote next week on a measure that includes just four of the 12 bills needed to fund the federal government. That decision comes after GOP leaders failed to get enough Republican support to pass the full dozen without the help of their minority-party counterparts.”

Bill Kristol: “July 2017 could be the month historians look back to as the moment the GOP lost any credible claim to be a plausible governing party.”

Democrats Hold Wide Lead in Generic Ballot

July 19, 2017 at 7:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 14 points, 52% to 36%.

Christie Booed After Catching Foul Ball

July 19, 2017 at 7:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Daily News: “Christie, sitting in the third row behind the first base line, was able to make the catch after Cardinals second baseman Paul DeJong fouled off a pitch during the top of the third inning… Unfortunately for Christie, whose approval rating is down to 15%, the majority of fans in attendance didn’t appear to be too impressed with his catch — or the fact he appeared to give the ball to a young kid nearby — booing the unpopular governor after it became clear he was the one who caught DeJong’s foul ball.”

Said the TV announcer: “Nice to see him get from the beach to the ballpark.”

Trump Son Not Very Happy

July 19, 2017 at 7:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A source in the Trump family circle tells People: “Don Jr. can’t do any deals, because he’ll be overly scrutinized. He just goes to work every day and is miserable… You can’t bite the hand that feeds you, but he can’t wait for these four years to be over.”

Rove Says He Would Have Called FBI

July 19, 2017 at 7:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Karl Rove told an off-the-record McDonald’s corporate conference Monday in D.C. that he would not have taken a meeting with Russian operatives, like Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort and Jared Kushner did. Rove told the crowd at the J.W. Marriott that if a campaign gets an email saying an agent of a foreign adversarial government wants to meet and pass on damaging information about an opponent, they shouldn’t take the meeting, and they should call the FBI.”

“In a presidential campaign, Rove said, aides get lots of phone calls and emails offering tips on the opponent. Most should be routed through opposition researchers, and many are not worth the time.”

Meanwhile, a new Politico/Morning Consult poll finds that 52% of voters say the meeting was inappropriate. Only 23% say meeting was appropriate and the remaining 25% have no opinion.

Trump Isn’t Helping

July 19, 2017 at 7:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “This week… brought a painful reminder for Republicans of how difficult major legislative undertakings can be with a president who is doing other things, picking fights with TV news hosts and devoting an inordinate amount of time to a mounting scandal about his 2016 presidential campaign.”

For members: Trump Deserves Most of the Blame

A Massive Defeat for McConnell

July 19, 2017 at 7:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The failure of Obamacare repeal marks Mitch McConnell’s lowest point as Senate GOP leader. Despite having a Republican in the White House, full GOP control of Congress, and seven years of campaign promises – ‘pulling out Obamacare root and branch,’ as the Kentucky Republican famously declared – McConnell acknowledged this week that that he didn’t have the votes to even start debate on replacing the 2010 Affordable Care Act.”

“It’s a serious defeat for McConnell, and one that leaves deep bitterness among rank-and-file GOP senators, as moderates and conservatives blamed each other over who is at fault for the setback. It’s also a blow to McConnell’s reputation as a master legislator and raises doubts in the White House about what Senate Republicans can actually deliver for President Donald Trump. McConnell, like Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), finds himself caught between the factions in his own party. And like Ryan, McConnell hasn’t demonstrated that he knows how to resolve the dispute.”

Tax Reform Becomes a Must-Win Issue for Trump

July 19, 2017 at 7:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The long-held GOP goal of re-engineering the U.S. tax system has now become a political imperative for the Trump administration, which has yet to deliver any major legislative victories despite Republican control of the White House and both houses of Congress.”

What a Weak American President Looks Like

July 18, 2017 at 9:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

BuzzFeed: “Trump spent much of this past weekend watching the U.S. Women’s Golf Open at his family-owned golf club, a kind of metaphor for a presidency disconnected from actual power. But the health care failure — in which Trump allowed himself to lose control of his own agenda, and then lose the fight for that agenda — was the most humiliating in a sweep of presidential defeats.”

“The White House has lost control of its foreign policy to the military and to allies who can’t work with a globally loathed American leader even if they wanted to. He has lost control of his domestic policy to Congress, which has been unable to give him a signature win despite Republicans controlling both chambers. He has lost control of his own aides to leaks and investigations, of his old television cronies to spiteful personal feuds, and most of all of the narrative of an ‘America First’ presidency with a coherent vision or promise.”

Also interesting: “Even the president’s top backers are losing patience. Billionaire Trump patrons Rebecca and Bob Mercer are ‘apoplectic’ over the health care debacle, with renewed fears that Trump’s lofty goals of changing Washington have become all but impossible”

Trump Finds It Tough to Demolish Obama’s Legacy

July 18, 2017 at 7:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Determined to dismantle his predecessor’s legacy, Mr. Trump in the space of a couple of hours Monday night reluctantly agreed to preserve President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran and failed in his effort to repeal Mr. Obama’s health care program.”

“The back-to-back events underscored the challenge for a career developer whose main goal since taking office six months ago has been to raze what he sees as the poorly constructed edifices he inherited. Mr. Trump has gone a long way toward that objective through executive action, but as Tuesday dawned, he faced the reality that Mr. Obama’s most prominent domestic and international accomplishments both remained intact.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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