The next big project from David Fahrenthold, the Washington Post reporter who won the Pulitzer for writing relentlessly about Donald Trump’s (lack of) charitable contributions, is apparently focusing on Trump’s golf partners, according to Axios.
What We Miss When We Obsess Over Trump’s Tweets
Columbia Journalism Review: “The president is fully aware that his war against the press is one of the few things that is working for him. His campaign promise to replace Obamacare is in tatters, his immigration ban has been watered down by the courts, the wall is still only (and thankfully) an architect’s rendering. There’s very little of substance left to bind Trump to his base or to the rightwing mediasphere that has been his cheerleader. Take away the war on the media and the bond between Trump and his supporters thins out fast.”
“Every time Trump fires a shot in his war against the media, there’s an opportunity for a more serious, nuanced argument about why everyone benefits from a free and vigorous press: Airing a president and his policies to open discussion and scrutiny results in better government. Squashing those things, or seeking to discredit the scrutiny before it even happens, neutralizes a key check against power baked into our Constitution. Dialing up the outrage meter every time Trump attacks CNN, The Washington Post, or The New York Times gets us no closer to that important debate, which is just fine for a president who has very little else to offer.”
Kids Have Most to Lose If GOP Rolls Back Medicaid
Los Angeles Times: “Much of the debate over Republican efforts to roll back the Affordable Care Act has focused on the impact cuts would have on working-age adults, millions of whom gained coverage under the healthcare law that President Obama signed in 2010.”
“But in Fayette County and 779 other mostly rural counties across the country — the vast majority of which went for Trump — more than half the children rely for coverage on Medicaid and the related Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, according to a Times analysis of county voting data, census data and Medicaid enrollment data.”
“That is stoking rising alarm among parents, pediatricians and other medical providers in West Virginia and other largely rural states, including Arkansas, Tennessee, New Mexico and Maine.”
Devil’s Bargain
A must-read: Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Storming of the Presidency by Joshua Green.
“The shocking elevation of Bannon to head Trump’s flagging presidential campaign on August 17, 2016, hit political Washington like a thunderclap and seemed to signal the meltdown of the Republican Party. Bannon was a bomb-throwing pugilist who’d never run a campaign and was despised by Democrats and Republicans alike.”
“Yet Bannon’s hard-edged ethno-nationalism and his elaborate, years-long plot to destroy Hillary Clinton paved the way for Trump’s unlikely victory. Trump became the avatar of a dark but powerful worldview that dominated the airwaves and spoke to voters whom others couldn’t see.”
McCain Won’t Support Just Repealing Obamacare
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said he would not support calls to repeal Obamacare now and replace it at a later date, KTAR reports.
Said McCain: “I fear we may fall under the trap of repealing and not replacing and that would be bad for America.”
Pressure Builds on Republicans
New York Times: “When members of Congress return next week from their Fourth of July break, they will be greeted by a mammoth legislative logjam. Republicans are increasingly skeptical that they can get everything done. There are even calls from some to forgo their sacred August recess — a respite from the capital in its swampiest month.”
“The Republican Party is under intense pressure to achieve something of consequence in that limited time in order to legitimately claim that the first year of the Trump administration has been a success. So far, the ambitious agenda has stagnated without a signature achievement. President Trump’s unpredictability has only made matters more complicated.”
For members: There’s Serious Pain Ahead for Republicans
Trump Renews Russia-Themed Domain Names
The Trump Organization has renewed its claim on more than 1,000 of the web domains registered by its general counsel, including some politically sensitive websites such as TrumpRussia.com and TrumpTowerMoscow.com, Politico reports.
Democrats Test a New Slogan
“Democratic leaders are zeroing in on a new mantra for their long-promised economic agenda: the ‘Better Deal,'” Politico reports.
“The rebranding attempt comes as Democrats acknowledge that simply running against President Trump wasn’t a winning strategy in 2016 and probably won’t work in 2018 either. The slogan, which is still being polled in battleground House districts, aims to convince voters that Democrats have more to offer than the GOP and the self-proclaimed deal-maker in the White House.”
Trump’s Voter Fraud Commission May Have Broken Law
President Trump’s voter fraud commission “may have violated the law by ignoring federal requirements governing requests for information from states,” The Hill reports.
“Under the Paperwork Reduction Act, information requests from agencies and other federal entities are supposed to first be submitted to the Office of Management and Budget’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA). This 1980 law requires federal agencies to seek public input, including through a comment period, before a request for information.”
Rick Hasen: “The Trump commission process has been so poorly handled that whatever it concludes will be likely ignored by serious people, even while the president latches onto it to make it harder for people to register and vote. He’s overplayed his hand, and we should be thankful for that.”
Republican Voters Starting to Give Up on Trump
This piece is only available to Political Wire members.
A chart from GOP strategist Adrian Gray clearly shows that Republican optimism about the direction of the country has been in free fall since early May.
Meanwhile, the core pieces of President Trump’s agenda are imploding, with a majority of voters now supporting the Affordable Care Act, opposing a border wall with Mexico and supporting free trade.
Republicans Blame Democrats for Not Fixing Obamacare
The RNC is out with a new ad criticizing Democrats for failing to put forward their own plan to fix Obamacare and urging them to work with Republicans to reform the healthcare system, the Washington Examiner reports.
Stuart Rothenberg: “There are plenty of problems with the video, but by far the biggest are that (1) Americans are not now clamoring for Congress to repeal Obamacare and (2) it is unlikely that Democrats need a plan to replace it. The replacement question is crucial, and the RNC is simply way off base, if history offers any lessons.”
“When one party controls the White House and both houses of Congress, voters have always blamed that party for what it has done or not done. That’s why midterm electoral waves have tended to occur during the intersection of political dissatisfaction and one-party control, which is exactly what happened in 1958, 1994, 2006 and 2010.”
“The party in power during a midterm almost always tries to blame the opposition. Sometimes the focus is on the previous president. Sometimes it is on the opposition party’s congressional leadership or its alleged ‘obstruction.’ But a party in trouble with voters always looks to blame someone else.”
Do Senate Republicans Have a Recruiting Problem?
This piece is only available to Political Wire members.
Of the 34 Senate seats up for re-election in 2018, Democrats are defending 25 while Republicans have to defend just 9. Of those, 11 of the Democratic-held seats as competitive while just two of the Republican-held seats are seen in play.
That means if Republicans have a chance at a near filibuster-proof majority of 60 out of 100 seats.
But the Washington Post notes they may have a problem:
Republicans have struggled to recruit top candidates in these Trump states. A lack of a clear leader is leading to a bunch of lower-tier candidates jumping into the race, which means Republicans could spend the next year in potentially expensive (and, in some cases, divisive) primaries in some key states.
Basically…there are Republican primaries in nearly every competitive Senate race right now.”
Consider what’s happening in some of the key states:
- “In Wisconsin, Rep. Sean P. Duffy (R) decided not to run to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). There are at least six possible GOP candidates who could try to challenge Baldwin.”
- “In Indiana, Rep. Susan Brooks (R) decided not to run against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D), possibly the most vulnerable Senate Democrat. Her colleagues, GOP Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, do look like they’ll run, and they’ve already started attacking each other in pretty dramatic ways, like accusing the other of planting negative stories or making ‘unhinged’ comments.”
- “In Pennsylvania, Rep. Patrick Meehan (R) decided not to run against two-term Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (D). Now there are at least four Republicans who have launched campaigns, from state representatives to a real estate developer and an energy executive.”
- “In West Virginia…U.S. GOP Rep. Evan Jenkins is running to try to unseat Sen. Joe Manchin III (D). But a super PAC recently jumped into the race in favor of likely GOP candidate Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and attacked Jenkins as a Manchin ‘mini me.’”
- “In Ohio, state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) is the leading candidate to challenge two-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). But a wealthy investment banker and GOP donor decided to run, too.”
- “And Montana Republicans lost their top recruit, Ryan Zinke, after Trump picked him to be his interior secretary. Attorney General Tim Fox (R) also said no thanks to challenging two-term Sen. Jon Tester (D), which has left the state auditor as the biggest name among half a dozen potential candidates.”
- “Finally, in North Dakota, Republicans don’t have a candidate yet to challenge Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D).”
With the caveat that there are still many months left, it’s shaping up to be a major missed opportunity.
As the Washington Post notes, if the Democrat could be unseated in many of these states, “it’s possible Republicans could hold the seat for a long time. And the more likely your party is to win a race, the more likely on-the-fence candidates are to jump in.”
Trump Against the World
“President Trump and key global leaders are on a collision course ahead of the Group of 20 summit in Germany this week, with Trump’s unapologetic ‘America First’ mantra on trade and climate change running into emboldened, and increasingly united, opposition overseas,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump reiterated his threats on Wednesday to pull the United States back from existing trade deals, arguing they were against the national interest. As Trump threatens to retreat from global trade, other world powers are exploring new economic ties.”
“The European Union and Japan are expected on Thursday to announce plans for a major new free trade agreement… If completed, the E.U.-Japan trade deal would be a sign of other top economies adjusting to a new world order in which they attempt to work around the United States instead of looking to it for direction on building global trade.”
Poland Promises Trump a Warm Welcome
Associated Press: “According to Polish media reports, Poland’s government promised the White House a reception of cheering crowds as part of its invitation. To make good on that pledge, ruling party lawmakers and pro-government activists plan to bus in groups from the provinces to hear Trump’s speech. The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment on those reports.”
BBC: “The ruling party will bus in 50 people per parliamentarian, according to the Gazeta Wyborcza newspaper, guaranteeing a friendly crowd of thousands for President Trump’s speech in Warsaw’s symbolic Krasinski Square on Thursday.”
Rubio Can’t Find Office Space Due to Protests
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is unable to find office space in Tampa because of weekly protests outside of his previous building, the Tampa Bay Times reports.
“The protestors disrupted other tenants and cost the company too much money… News coverage of the decision put local landlords and property management companies on notice that Rubio could be a problematic tenant. That added another challenge in a tight rental market, where leasing fees are high and vacancy rates are low.”
Booker Won’t Rule Out Presidential Bid in 2020
Sen. Cory Booker told David Axelrod that he hasn’t ruled out a presidential bid in 2020.
Said Booker: “I think that politicians make a terrible mistake if they’re thinking about aspirations for another office, because I think it undermines their integrity where they are. If I start thinking about the future like that or engaging in that stuff … I think it would make me a lesser of a senator.”
Christie Is One of the Least Popular Governors Ever
Harry Enten: “Based on my analysis of every governor’s lowest poll since 1958, Christie currently ranks fourth on the list of most of most unpopular governors in the modern era.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Unlike others, I’d tell him to tweet more, to be on Facebook more, to get the message out more, but to be focused.”
— Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), offering advice to President Trump in an interview on Fox News.
