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Will Trump Really Try to Deport Millions?

November 9, 2016 at 4:58 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“If Donald Trump sticks to the immigration pledges that helped drive his presidential election victory, he will begin a clampdown on illegal immigration that would be unprecedented in American history and would require an exorbitantly expensive — and logistically difficult — operation to remove millions from the country while fortifying the border,” the Washington Post reports.

“As a candidate, Trump made immigration one of his highest-profile issues, saying he’d create a ‘special deportation task force’ and build a ‘beautiful’ wall along a major part of the southern border with Mexico. But immigration experts say those promises, though popular among his base, pose major complications as Trump prepares for office.”

“Yet even with the potential difficulties, Trump will have the administrative tools to massively scale back the Obama administration’s efforts to shield millions of immigrants from deportation, former federal officials say. With the stroke of a pen, for example, Trump could reverse a program that has protected hundreds of thousands of people brought to the United States illegally as children — something he has vowed to do.”

Trump Turns to Staffing His Administration

November 9, 2016 at 4:48 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Trump campaign advisers said on Wednesday that the president-elect was turning to assembling a cabinet and White House team and selecting a conservative nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy. The advisers said Mr. Trump was inclined to roll out a few cabinet nominations at a time, rather than kicking them off with one high-profile pick for a critical department like Treasury or State.”

“Among the candidates for cabinet secretaries and advisers are members of Mr. Trump’s inner circle, aides said, including Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, a crucial adviser on policy issues; Steven Mnuchin, a businessman who was Mr. Trump’s national finance chairman; Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York; Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey; and Newt Gingrich, a former speaker of the House.”

Walker Suggests Getting Rid of Filibuster

November 9, 2016 at 4:35 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) said in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprising victory that Republicans should get rid of the Senate filibuster, CNN reports.

Said Walker: “You cannot use, they cannot use inside-the-ballpark Washington procedural reason to justify why things don’t happen.”


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McConnell Pledges to Quickly Repeal Obamacare

November 9, 2016 at 4:23 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) “signaled the Senate would move swiftly to repeal Obamacare now that the GOP Congress will have a Republican president next year,” Politico reports.

Said McConnell: “It’s pretty high on our agenda as you know. I would be shocked if we didn’t move forward and keep our commitment to the American people.”

GOP Lawmaker Says Trump Won’t Investigate Clinton

November 9, 2016 at 4:18 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Sean Duffy (R-WI) said that Donald Trump will focus on cutting government regulation, other issues important to voters, not investigating Hillary Clinton, Bloomberg reports.

Said Duffy: “I think the sentence and the conviction came last night in the vote.”

Trump Won Because of Facebook

November 9, 2016 at 3:58 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Max Read: “Trump, like Obama before him, was able to connect with voters outside the more stifling confines of political-party organizing. Trump, a longtime Democrat with liberal social positions, rose to the nomination because he could express a political position — essentially, white welfare-state ethno-nationalism — that the party would once have choked off for threatening its delicate coalition of business interests and white workers.”

“Facebook connected those supporters to each other and to the candidate, gave them platforms far beyond what even the largest Establishment media organizations might have imagined, and allowed them to effectively self-organize outside the party structure. Who needs a GOTV database when you have millions of voters worked into a frenzy by nine months of sharing impassioned lies on Facebook, encouraging each other to participate?”

“Even better, Facebook allowed Trump to directly combat the hugely negative media coverage directed at him, simply by giving his campaign and its supporters another host of channels to distribute counterprogramming. This, precisely, is why more good journalism would have been unlikely to change anyone’s mind: The Post and the Times no longer have a monopoly on information about a candidate.”

Nieman Lab: “Our democracy has a lot of problems, but there are few things that could impact it for the better more than Facebook starting to care — really care — about the truthfulness of the news that its users share and take in.”

Trump Spent Most Time on Concession Speech

November 9, 2016 at 3:34 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump’s campaign prepared two speeches for Election Night on Tuesday — but more time was spent crafting a draft to concede rather than claim victory,” sources told NBC News.

“While the campaign had expressed confidence in public, their own data showed only a narrow path to the 270 electorates needed to win the White House. The senior team felt pressure to live up to the moment and acknowledge the outcome of a potential defeat by Hillary Clinton after the GOP nominee’s comments about a ‘rigged’ system and whether he would accept the results was widely derided by Democrats and members of his own party.”

“The first draft of a victory speech was no longer just a placeholder but needed revisions to reflect the scope of the night, sources said. That draft was revised in real-time when a victory was within sight.”

Why Trump Won

November 9, 2016 at 2:34 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece would normally only be available to Political Wire members but it’s available to everyone today.

Donald Trump’s election has created shock waves that will make the 2016 presidential campaign look mild in comparison.

Join now to continue reading.

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Did Trump Win a Mandate?

November 9, 2016 at 1:34 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “Last night, Paul Ryan, jubilant with the prospect that his long dream of dismantling the state may be finally at hand, called the election ‘a repudiation of the status quo of failed liberal progressive policies.’ This morning, going further, he insisted Trump ‘just earned a mandate.’ The rule of law entitles Ryan and his party to exercise the power they have won. But Ryan is seeking something more — the deference of a party that is seen as embodying the will of the people. He is not entitled to that.”

Trump’s election cannot be called a decision by the voters to repudiate the liberal status quo because, for one thing, it was not a decision by the voters at all. The voters supported Clinton over Trump. The decision was made by the Electoral College, which as a matter of opinion can be called archaic, and as a matter of objective fact can be called anti-democratic. Again, the rules are the rules. But it remains the case that Ryan and his party have power not because of the will of the voters but despite it.”

A Party Without a Leader

November 9, 2016 at 1:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Hillary Clinton’s stunning loss in the presidential race Tuesday night doesn’t just leave Democrats without a president in January; it leaves them without an obvious party leader or path forward as a party,” the Washington Post reports.

“Now the party begins the difficult task of trying to pick up the pieces and figure out exactly who it is and what it wants to be over the next two or four years.”

Enthusiasm Is More Important Than Analytics

November 9, 2016 at 1:03 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Amy Walter: “Clinton had a sophisticated analytics shop. Yet, as I watched this election unfold I was reminded of a statement by GOP pollster Glen Bolger in 2014, he said you can’t win on turnout if you are losing on message. Exit polls showed that the number one candidate quality that mattered most to voters was ‘Can bring change’ at 39 percent. Trump won those voters with 83 percent. Enthusiasm beats analytics every time.”

There Were Plenty of Signs

November 9, 2016 at 8:35 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

I’ve moved a piece I wrote for members last March outside the paywall: How Donald Trump Broke Political Science.

The Polls, Forecasts and Political Scientists Were All Wrong

November 9, 2016 at 8:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News: “The polls were wrong — all of them. So were the experts, the political consultants and the seasoned officials in both parties who predicted Donald Trump would lead his party to ruin. So were the markets, which had anticipated a Hillary Clinton victory and crashed overnight as her electoral firewall caught ablaze. So was every living president and past presidential nominee of both parties, save Bob Dole, all of whom opposed Trump. So was this reporter and so many like him — and Trump told me as much.”

“Even the GOP polling numbers and analytics we were privy to didn’t show Trump winning. The biggest mistake we made was viewing what seemed to be a very stable race in the polls (with Clinton holding a durable lead), but what ultimately turned into anything but.”

Jake Tapper, on CNN:  “It’s going to put the polling industry out of business. It’s going to put the voter projection industry out of business.”

Trump Broke Every Rule on the Way to Victory

November 9, 2016 at 8:13 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump ran against himself and won. The Manhattan billionaire who for decades boasted of his playboy lifestyle, stiffed contractors and vendors, hired illegal immigrants, eschewed churchgoing, embraced liberal causes, and counted Hillary and Bill Clinton as friends and allies pulled off one of the most brazen pivots in American history, selling himself to American voters as a populist hero who understood their frustrations and guaranteed a blizzard of wins,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump did it the way he’d said he would for more than 30 years: He ignored the rules of modern politics and spoke to Americans in plain, even coarse, everyday language, without massaging his words through the data-driven machinery of consultants, focus groups and TV commercials. He scoffed at ideologies, preaching a tough, blunt pragmatism fueled by unbridled, unashamed ego. He told people what they wanted to hear: that a rapidly changing and splintering society could be forced back to a nostalgia-drenched sense of community and purpose, that long-lost jobs could be retrieved, that a pre-globalized economy could be restored.”

Inside the Loss Clinton Saw Coming

November 9, 2016 at 8:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Democrats and many others are now in crisis, wrapping their minds around the reality of a President Donald Trump. But the crisis is sharpest in Clinton campaign headquarters: not only do they feel like everything is about to go deeply, collapse-of-America wrong, but it’s going to happen because she failed, and they failed her.”

“Clinton and her operatives went into the race predicting her biggest problems would be inevitability and her age, trying to succeed a two-term president of her own party. But the mood of the country surprised them. They recognized that Sanders and Trump had correctly defined the problem—addressing anger about a rigged economy and government—and that Clinton already never authentically could. Worse still, her continuing email saga and extended revelations about the Clinton Foundation connections made any anti-establishment strategy completely impossible.”

“So instead of answering the question of how Clinton represented change, they tried to change the question to temperament, what kind of change people wanted, what kind of America they wanted to live in. It wasn’t enough.”

The Future of Obamacare Looks Bleak

November 9, 2016 at 8:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans in Congress have been calling for the repeal of Obamacare since it passed in 2010. With control of both houses of Congress and the presidency, they may finally get their chance to undo huge, consequential parts of the health law next year,” the New York Times reports.

“If they succeed, about 22 million fewer Americans would have health insurance, according to an estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.”

“Without a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate, Republicans can’t repeal the entire Affordable Care Act. But they can eliminate several consequential provisions through a special budgetary process called reconciliation.”

Quote of the Day

November 9, 2016 at 7:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The forgotten man and woman will never be forgotten again. We will all come together as never before.”

— Donald Trump, in his first tweet as president-elect.

What Kind of President Will Trump Be?

November 9, 2016 at 6:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Dan Balz: “It’s impossible to overstate how uncertain the road ahead is at this point. But how will Trump govern, and how effective will he be? His core issues — trade, immigration, and law and order — offer clues but no clear road map for the future. Even in pursuit of the goals he outlined in those three areas, his proposals lack real specificity. But then, his campaign was not about policy white papers. It was instead a thumb in the eye of the establishment, an American version of the populist uprisings against open borders and globalization that have been seen in other Western societies.”

“Trump always said he smelled an American Brexit in the making — a reference to the unexpected victory in Britain in June by those who wanted to take the country out of the European Union. That vote caught the elites and the establishment totally by surprise. It was an uprising that went unseen until it struck. Trump’s victory was by far even more shocking. It was the kind of “can’t happen here” event that will go down as one of the great upsets in political history.”

“What happened Tuesday was a victory powered by an outpouring of voters, overwhelmingly white and many without college degrees, who felt left behind by the economic recovery, ignored by Washington and disdained by the political, cultural and economic elites. In the end, that was enough to topple Clinton and her dream of becoming the first female president in the nation’s history. The shock waves will be felt for months and maybe years.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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