Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “For the time being, we’re sticking with our current Electoral College ratings, which show Clinton with 347 electoral votes safe, likely, and leaning to her, with 191 safe/likely/leaning Trump. We agree that if the election were held today, it would almost certainly be closer than that — and that Trump could very well win. But the election isn’t being held today — it’s actually still about 100 days away. Our ratings are a forecast for November, not a reflection of the day-to-day state of play, and we still see Clinton with an edge.”

“If the dust settles from the conventions the next few weeks and the numbers are still what they are today, then we very well may have to reassess.”

The Upshot: Why our model still has Clinton ahead

President Obama was interviewed by the Today Show:

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE: Yes or no, is it possible that Donald Trump wins the presidency?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Anything is possible. It is– the– the nature of democracy that until those votes are cast and the American people– you know, have their say– we don’t know.

SAVANNAH GUTHRIE: Are you worried?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know, as somebody who has now been in elected office– at various levels– for about 20 years– I’ve seen all kinds of crazy stuff happen. And– I think anybody who– goes into campaigns not running scared can end up losing.

The roll call vote is expected to begin at 6 pm ET and will result in the first woman being officially nominated for president of a major political party.

The main speaker is Bill Clinton, who will give his 10th speech at a Democratic convention tonight.

Add your own observations in the comments.

The preliminary broadcast ratings for night one of the Democratic National Convention are a little higher than those of the Republican National Convention: The DNC clocked in with 10.54 million total viewers as compared to the RNC at 10.1 million viewers, Variety reports.

Politico: “Over the years, much has been made of the first lady’s animosity toward both Clintons (mostly fiction, with a soupçon of fact), a vestige of the bitter 2008 campaign. But on Monday night Michelle Obama delivered a more passionate and concise case for Clinton than the candidate has ever made for herself — and perhaps the single most effective political address delivered in 2016.”

New York Times: “In her speech, Mrs. Obama roused the convention hall into a frenzy by denouncing Donald J. Trump without ever using his name. She mocked his frequent use of Twitter, called him thin-skinned and questioned whether he has any real knowledge of policy. And she forcefully urged the audience and the television viewers to reject Mr. Trump’s campaign motto, casting it as a cynical description of a country in crisis that she does not recognize.”

The Fix: “An absolute home run. Period. It will be difficult for anyone in the next three days to deliver a better speech than the first lady did on Monday night.”