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Primary Polls Still Aren’t Very Predictive

January 3, 2016 at 1:15 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

Nate Cohn: “You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true.”

“This phase of the race — the final stretch before Iowa and New Hampshire — can be the most volatile of the entire campaign, as early-state voters make up their minds, politicians and newspapers make endorsements, and candidates make strategic decisions to invest time and money in particular states.”

“In recent primary campaigns, going back to the 2004 Democratic primary, those candidates who have led in Iowa or New Hampshire polls with just one month to go have lost as often as they have won. On average, candidates’ share of the vote at this stage differed from their final share of the vote by around seven percentage points. With many candidates running, it was not at all uncommon for a candidate to move by more.”

Why the Early States Matter

January 3, 2016 at 1:13 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

Huffington Post: “Early primaries matter because they establish campaign momentum. The media speaks of Iowa and New Hampshire in hushed tones, and the voters themselves take their first in the nation status most seriously. But, as any South Carolinian will tell you, they are the most consistent bellwether of the Reagan Era. Of the last six open GOP nominations, Iowa correctly picked three winners, New Hampshire four and South Carolina five. The one time all three early states agreed on a nominee was 1980, with Ronald Reagan.”

Pollsters Say Their Reputations Have Suffered

January 3, 2016 at 12:34 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

Carl Bialik: “No votes have been cast yet in the 2016 election, but there may already be one set of losers in the campaign: pollsters’ reputations. And that’s according to the pollsters themselves.”

“We asked people working at some of the nation’s most prominent polling outfits whether pollsters’ public image has improved or declined since the 2012 election. Of the 21 who answered, none said their public image had improved, and two-thirds said it had declined.”

Unknown number calling? It’s not random

The BBC caught scam call center workers on hidden cameras as they laughed at the people they were tricking.

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Once your data is out there, it’s not just calls. It’s phishing, impersonation, and identity theft. That’s why I recommend Incogni: They delete your info from the web, monitor and follow up automatically, and continue to erase data as new risks appear. Try Incogni here and get 55% off your subscription with code POLITICALWIRE.

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Christie’s Path to Victory

January 3, 2016 at 11:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard 27 Comments

National Journal: “The case for Christie relies on him being the feisty underdog, surpassing expectations at every turn. To little fanfare, he’s campaigning this week in Iowa even as he’s bet his campaign’s future on doing well in New Hampshire. Christie knows that a surprisingly good finish in Iowa could bring him momentum going into New Hampshire, and he has little to lose even if he struggles in the caucuses. Rubio, by contrast, has spent more time in Iowa and a disappointing showing could stunt his candidacy. Meanwhile, the emerging Rubio-Jeb tit-for-tat in Iowa is a welcome development for Christie.”

“Christie would still need to do well in his must-win state of New Hampshire, where polls show him in a crowded pileup for second place behind Donald Trump. Christie would then focus on performing respectably in South Carolina, and more importantly, on making a major play for two Super Tuesday states that aren’t getting much attention now but would be an essential part of the Christie map: Virginia and Massachusetts.”

Palin Hints at Possible Senate Bid

January 3, 2016 at 10:47 am EST By Taegan Goddard 87 Comments

Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) “keeps raising questions about whether she plans on running against Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK),” according to the Midnight Sun.

“First she said it was a possibility in a radio interview, then she put her Arizona home on the market, now we’re hearing murmurs from Washington D.C. that she is seriously considering the possibility.”

Bonus Trump Quote of the Day

January 3, 2016 at 10:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

“To the best of my knowledge, not too many evangelicals come out of Cuba, okay?”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the New York Times, taking a swipe at Sen. Ted Cruz.

Christie Says Obama Wants to be a Dictator

January 3, 2016 at 10:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard 52 Comments

Gov. Chris Christie laced into President Obama’s plan to issue executive actions on gun control, calling him a “petulant child” who wants to act like “a king” or “as if he is a dictator,” Politico reports.

Said Christie: “This is going to be another illegal executive action, which I’m sure will be rejected by the courts and when I become president will be stricken from executive action by executive action I’ll take.”

Trump Says Clinton Ruined the World

January 3, 2016 at 10:01 am EST By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

Donald Trump said that Hillary Clinton is the cause of “so many” of the world’s current problems, Politico reports.

Said Trump: “As secretary of state. I mean, the entire world has been upset. The entire world, it’s a different place. During Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton’s term, she’s done a horrible job.”

He added: “She has caused death. She has caused tremendous death with incompetent decisions. I was against the war in Iraq. I wasn’t a politician, but I was against the war in Iraq. She voted for the war in Iraq.”

Trump Quote of the Day

January 3, 2016 at 9:08 am EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

“I think I’m probably wasting the money. But I’m $35 million under budget. Look, I was going to have 35 or 40 million spent by now. I haven’t spent anything. I almost feel guilty… I’m leading by, as you all say, a lot. You can take the CBS poll. You can take any poll and I’m winning by a lot. I don’t think I need the ads. But I’m doing them. I almost feel guilty.”

— Donald Trump, in an interview with CBS News, on running his first television ads.

Trump Nomination Hinges on the South

January 3, 2016 at 9:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

“If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination for president, he will likely have to do it by storming across the South,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“The brash billionaire’s support has softened in Iowa, and a skirmish in New Hampshire with an influential conservative newspaper could scramble the race. But in South Carolina, Trump remains rock solid — signaling a strength that would serve him well when voters in Southern states begin to vote in less than two months.”

“He’s championing a strategy that melds a blend of economic populism with blunt rhetoric that resonates with voters across the region. Polls show him maintaining commanding leads in South Carolina, where Republicans will cast ballots on Feb. 20, as well as Georgia and other states that vote in the so-called ‘SEC primary’ on March 1.”

What Will the Caucus Avoiders Do?

January 3, 2016 at 8:51 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

“After spending months cultivating party activists, presidential campaigns in Iowa are going all-out in the final four weeks to woo an additional target: caucus avoiders,” the Des Moines Register reports.

“Registered Republicans and Democrats who don’t caucus are a massive group. Persuading a small fraction to turn out rather than stay home could rip the presidential race out of the current front-runners’ hands and put someone else on the path to the White House.”

“If they were to create a wave on Feb. 1, political strategists say, it would most likely crest for the ultra-liberal Bernie Sanders or the mad-dog conservative Donald Trump, the two breakout phenomena of the 2016 race and vessels for anger about a political and economic system they rail against as broken.”

Obama Says He’s ‘Fired Up’ for Final Year

January 3, 2016 at 8:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

President Obama is returning to the rancor of the nation’s capital after two weeks of vacation in his native Hawaii, saying he’s “fired up” for his final year in office and ready to tackle unfinished business, the AP reports.

Obama gives his final State of the Union address on January 12.

Whites and Republicans are the Angriest

January 3, 2016 at 8:18 am EST By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

A new NBC News/Survey Monkey/Esquire online poll finds that 49% of Americans said they find themselves feeling angrier now about current events than they were one year ago. Whites are the angriest, with 54% saying they have grown more outraged over the past year.

The poll also found Republicans are angrier than Democrats. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say current events irk them more today than a year ago, compared to 42% of Democrats.

Making Sense of Donald Trump

January 2, 2016 at 11:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Boston Globe: “Conversations with a range of scholars, and some rummaging through historical sources, suggest that the most riveting figure in American politics today can perhaps be parsed as one part populist (recalling … William Jennings Bryan, three-time presidential candidate and secretary of state); one part brilliant exploiter of public fears (Joseph McCarthy, senator and red-baiter); one part mesmerizing but inflammatory preacher (Father Charles Coughlin, supporter of Franklin Roosevelt and then bitter opponent of the New Deal), one part showboat (Jesse Ventura, gaudy professional wrestler, and governor of Minnesota), and one part crusading antielitist (Huey Long, governor of Louisiana, senator, and possible presidential candidate).”

New Hampshire Will Be an Epic Race

January 2, 2016 at 5:12 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 2 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

The New Hampshire primary on February 9 is shaping up to be an epic battle for the Republican Party.

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Will the GOP Break Apart in 2016?

January 2, 2016 at 4:38 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 108 Comments

Peggy Noonan: “I have not seen a political cycle so confounding in my lifetime, and it could continue into a year of the most historic kind. If you love politics—the excitement, the unknowability, the to-and-fro—this is the year for you. If you take unhappy U.S. political trends seriously—the shallowness, the restiveness, the division of our polity—you will feel legitimate concern.”

“We could see a great party split in two. That, I think, is what I’m seeing among the Republicans, a slow-motion break. The question is whether it will play out over the next few cycles or turn abrupt and fiery in this one. Some in Washington speak giddily of the prospect, wondering aloud if the new party’s logo should be a lion or a gazelle. But America’s two-party system has reigned almost since its beginning, and it has kept us from much woe. It has provided stability, reliability and, yes, progress. The breaking or splintering of one of those parties would be an epochal event.”

“If the GOP breaks it will be bitter. The establishment thinks they are saving the party from the vandals—from Trumpian know-nothingism. But Republicans on the ground think those in the establishment were the vandals, with their open borders, donor-class interests and social liberalism.”

Only Older People Really Watch Cable News

January 2, 2016 at 4:31 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 33 Comments

The New York Times notes the “median age for CNN viewers this year was 61, while it was 63 for MSNBC and 67 for Fox News.”

Trump Helped Cut Brother’s Children from Will

January 2, 2016 at 4:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 53 Comments

The New York Times has a fascinating profile of Donald Trump’s older brother, Freddy, who died from alcoholism at an early age.

An interesting tidbit: “Then came the unveiling of Fred Sr.’s will, which Donald had helped draft. It divided the bulk of the inheritance, at least $20 million, among his children and their descendants, ‘other than my son Fred C. Trump Jr.'”

“Freddy’s children sued, claiming that an earlier version of the will had entitled them to their father’s share of the estate, but that Donald and his siblings had used ‘undue influence’ over their grandfather, who had dementia, to cut them out. A week later, Mr. Trump retaliated by withdrawing the medical benefits critical to his nephew’s infant child.”