Christie’s Path to Victory

National Journal: “The case for Christie re­lies on him be­ing the feisty un­der­dog, sur­pass­ing ex­pect­a­tions at every turn. To little fan­fare, he’s cam­paign­ing this week in Iowa even as he’s bet his cam­paign’s fu­ture on do­ing well in New Hamp­shire. Christie knows that a sur­pris­ingly good fin­ish in Iowa could bring him mo­mentum go­ing in­to New Hamp­shire, and he has little to lose even if he struggles in the caucuses.  Ru­bio, by con­trast, has spent more time in Iowa and a dis­ap­point­ing show­ing could stunt his can­did­acy. Mean­while, the emer­ging Ru­bio-Jeb tit-for-tat in Iowa is a wel­come de­vel­op­ment for Christie.”

“Christie would still need to do well in his must-win state of New Hamp­shire, where polls show him in a crowded pileup for second place be­hind Don­ald Trump. Christie would then fo­cus on per­form­ing re­spect­ably in South Car­o­lina, and more im­port­antly, on mak­ing a ma­jor play for two Su­per Tues­day states that aren’t get­ting much at­ten­tion now but would be an es­sen­tial part of the Christie map: Vir­gin­ia and Mas­sachu­setts.”