“You name the country. Where are we in better shape now than we were when he came to office? Nowhere.”
— Sen. Mitch McConnell, quoted by The Hill, on President Obama’s “mind-boggling” foreign policy.
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Obama Says Trump Won’t Be President
President Obama said Donald Trump was “the classic reality TV character” who had tapped into something real in the Republican Party but was unlikely to end up as president, Reuters reports.
Said Obama: “He is a great publicity-seeker – and at a time when the Republican Party hasn’t really figured out what it’s for as opposed to what it’s against.”
He added: “I don’t think he’ll end up being president of the United States.”
Trump Still Leads GOP Presidential Race
A new CBS/New York Times poll finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race nationally with 27%, followed by Ben Carson at 21%, Ted Cruz at 9%, Marco Rubio at 8%, Jeb Bush at 6%, Carly Fiorina at 6%, Rand Paul at 4%, Chris Christie at 3%, Mike Huckabee at 2% and John Kasich at 2%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 46%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 27% and Joe Biden at 16%.
House Conservatives Not Yet Sold on Paul Ryan
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), the founder of the House Freedom Caucus, says his group is not sold on Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) for Speaker, The Hill reports.
Said Jornda: “Well, look, Paul Ryan is a friend, I meet with him every single week, we talk about policy, I think he’s be a great messenger. He’ll come in front of our group and talk to us, I think our group would be favorable towards him, but we’re not there yet.”
He added that his 40-to-50-member group would be willing to support Ryan if he committed to decentralizing power in the House.
McConnell Sees Ryan as Only Option for House Speaker
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has told Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) “that he sees no other alternative for the speaker job, and has painted a somewhat apocalyptic short-term future if Ryan won’t accede,” Bloomberg reports.
“A failure to efficiently deal with the debt ceiling in November, or pass a resolution to fund the government in December could have serious repercussions for the party, McConnell argues, that could imperil the GOP’s hold on the Senate. It could also have an adverse impact on the party’s chances to win the White House, according to McConnell and other leading Republicans, who have talked to Ryan.”
What Ted Cruz Is Counting On
George Will: “Cruz’s audacious ‘base plus’ strategy … aims to leaven the electorate with people who, disappointed by economic stagnation and discouraging cultural trends for which Republican nominees seemed to have no answers, have been dormant during recent cycles. … Whites without college experience include disproportionate numbers of nonvoters whose abstention in 2012 … produced Obama’s Electoral College victory.”
“The Cruz campaign’s substantial investment in data scientists serves what [Cruz chief strategist Jason] Johnson calls ‘behavioral micro-targeting,’ changing behavior as well as gathering opinions. If a person drives a Ford F-150 and subscribes to Guns & Ammo, he probably is conservative. The challenge is to make him a voter by directing to him a package of three- or four-issue appeals tailored to him.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“There’s almost no measure by which we’re not better off than when I took office and when we started this process for change. But it does kind of make you wonder. Why are so many Republican politicians so down on America? Why are they so grumpy?”
— President Obama, quoted by Yahoo News.
Romney’s Path to Nomination Eludes Bush
“On paper, Jeb Bush’s 2016 campaign mirrors Mitt Romney’s 2012 efforts, but Bush faces a far steeper climb to the nomination,” The Hill reports.
“With three popular outsider candidates leading the race, rising establishment contenders and the failure to lock down any of the early-voting states so far, Bush is beset by burdens that never weighed on Romney.”
The Twilight of the Republican Elite?
Frank Bruni: “Donald Trump’s stamina and the ascendance of Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina suggest as much. The three of them, who have led national polls since mid-September, aren’t just political outsiders, which is the label hung on them most frequently. For Republicans (and perhaps for Democrats, too) this is a season of rebellion, as the chaos in the House of Representatives vividly illustrates. A consequential share of the Republican majority there have made it clear that they will not bow to precedent, not follow any conventional script, not have anyone foisted on them.”
“Those bomb throwers are mirrors of the voters who are saying no to Jeb Bush, no to Chris Christie, no to John Kasich, no to anyone who was once or could soon be the darling of the northeastern Acela corridor. And they’re pointing the Republican primary in a genuinely unpredictable direction.”
GOP Staffer Fired from Benghazi Committee
“A Republican staffer from the House Select Committee on Benghazi has been fired after he says he developed concerns about the politicized nature of the panel’s investigation,” the Washington Post reports.
“The criticism from an experienced Republican intelligence investigator comes amid growing Democratic Party complaints that the special committee was on a mission to undermine former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton and her bid for the presidency.”
Quote of the Day
“When one of your Republican colleagues gets on the show, do you say, ‘Are you a capitalist?’ Have you ever referred to them as capitalists?”
— Sen. Bernie Sanders, on Meet the Press, when asked if he was a socialist.
First Debate Is Big Test for Clinton
Hillary Clinton “faces a complex task when she takes the stage Tuesday in Las Vegas for the first Democratic presidential debate: sell her vision for the nation while directly challenging a surging Bernie Sanders for the first time,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Since midsummer, Mrs. Clinton has been laying out policy proposals—on energy, health care, gun control, Wall Street regulation and more—but they have been overshadowed by stories about her private email arrangement as secretary of state and the rise of Sen. Sanders, who is drawing crowds with an unapologetic call for a political revolution that will take down the ‘billionaire class.’Now, Mrs. Clinton needs to help Democrats get comfortable with her again as their standard-bearer and begin her appeal to independent voters who tune in to the nationally televised forum.”
Politico: How could Hillary lose?
Trump Quote of the Day
“I love this. I love the people. I love the country. We’re never, ever getting out of this deal — never ever… We’ll take it to Cleveland where they have the convention.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
Democrats Spend on Ground Game
Patrick Ruffini: “Clinton has a staff of at least 90 in Iowa, with an additional 100 unpaid organizing fellows, and at least 17 field offices. Bernie Sanders’ Iowa staff has grown to more than 50, with 14 offices. In Democratic circles, an operation of that size is not considered a luxury available only to front-runners like Clinton, but a prerequisite for being taken seriously. Though gaps in reporting are likely, Democracy in Action reports that no Republican candidate has more than 10 full-time staff in any early voting state (not counting consultants and volunteer leaders).”
Democrats Would Need a Meltdown to Take House
Kyle Kondik: “Democrats do have a list of about 15-20 credible targets, while Republicans have a shorter list of plausible pickups… If Democrats hold the latter and win the lion’s share of the former, they could be about halfway to netting the 30 seats they need to win the House. But then the list of true targets dries up. In order for the Democrats to really threaten the Republican majority, they are going to need a major GOP meltdown.”
This is the Republican doomsday scenario:
“The new speaker… does an even poorer job… and a December shutdown is just a precursor to a year of widely-covered chaos in the House leading into next November…. Many swing-seat Republicans… recoil at the bleak post-Boehner landscape and decide against running for another term… The party’s presidential nominee, who may have spent late 2015 and the first half of 2016 cheering the efforts of shutdown-hungry elements of the Republican caucus, ends up being a colossal general election dud.”
Paul Ryan Mulls It Over
Washington Post: “The concerns driving Ryan are both personal and political. His man-in-a-hurry nature, evident since he first won a House seat in 1998, has never been about climbing the leadership ladder in Congress. Whenever there has been an opening, he has passed, encouraging allies to jump in and focusing instead on drawing up tax and spending legislation in the committee rooms.”
“That career arc — a busy, committee-driven existence in the House after a stint on a presidential ticket — has allowed him to keep a relatively ordinary family life. Those close to Ryan suggest that he is reluctant to give that up for a position, however prominent, that for the past 25 years has been a grind that usually ends in a whimper for its holders, either political embarrassment or personal scandal.”
Quote of the Day
“If he thinks that’s successful foreign policy then maybe he should do all of us a favor and start building his library now and leave office early.”
— Gov. Chris Christie (R), in an interview on Fox News Radio, suggesting President Obama leave office.
Is Donald Trump Laying Groundwork for Exit?
“In unmistakable ways over the last two weeks, whether he has intended to or not, Donald J. Trump has started to articulate a way out of the presidential race: a verbal parachute that makes clear he has contemplated the factors that would cause him to end his bid,” the New York Times reports.
“In three television interviews, Mr. Trump, who has made his standing in the polls a central facet of his campaign message, spoke about what would prompt him to quit a race in which he is currently leading in the polls.”
