“I want to be very clear that my campaign played absolutely no role in creating this story alleging Congressman Boustany’s sexual relationships with prostitutes that were later murdered, his staff’s alleged involvement in running the bar and hotel where this illicit behavior took place, or publishing the book.”
— Louisiana U.S. Senate candidate John Kennedy (R), quoted by the Washington Post, about one of his rivals.
Ed Kilgore: “So whom should the discerning political junkie trust? That’s hard to say. It’s tempting to rely on the betting markets since presumably the gamblers have predigested all the other data. For the truly cautious, there is even a forecasting average, called PollyVote, that lumps together all kinds of forecasts. All these estimates (other than the more unchanging of the ‘fundamentals’ models) may well begin to converge as we get closer to Election Day. All the models that rely on polling averages should settle down as the data massively accumulates in late October. But if the race is very close, we could see split predictions at the last minute, and then it could be a matter of the tiniest thumb on the scales making a crucial difference.”
For members: Why I Pay Less Attention to Nate Silver This Year
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) “unveiled legislation to prevent a government shutdown next weekend and provide more than $1 billion to battle the Zika virus. It also would provide $500 million to help Louisiana rebuild from last month’s devastating floods,” the AP reports.
“But Democrats immediately blasted the proposal for failing to fund one of their top priorities: money to help Flint, Michigan, repair its lead-tainted water system.”
“McConnell’s move could set up a showdown vote next week. Democrats said they would likely filibuster the measure since it omits a bipartisan plan to provide $220 million to help Flint and other cities with lead emergencies replace pipes and take other steps to clean their water.”
Playbook: “It’s not really in anyone’s interest to shut down the government less than two months before Election Day. Nobody is predicting that this is going to lead to a shutdown. They have a week — the government doesn’t shut down until next Friday — and Congress rarely does anything until it absolutely has to.”
“Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are preparing for their highly anticipated Monday night debate showdown in ways that appear to be as different as their candidacies. One looks to be hunkering down with homework, research and rehearsals, while the other seems to be taking an on-the-fly casual approach to what could be the most important 90 minutes of the presidential election,” NBC News reports.
“The first presidential debate could easily become one of the most watched events ever, and it will be nearly impossible to avoid seeing at least some parts of it on a television screen, cell phone, tablet or laptop or social media.”
New York Times: “The candidates are taking vastly different approaches to the first presidential debate, revealing what they see as their strengths and weaknesses.”
Mark Cuban, who has savaged Donald Trump by suggesting the GOP nominee is not really a billionaire, was given a front row seat in next week’s first presidential debate by Hillary Clinton’s campaign, CNN reports.
“Cuban has tried to publicly shame Trump throughout the 2016 campaign, regularly slamming the Republican nominee for not releasing his taxes. The attacks have been particularly effective, given Cuban’s status as a fellow billionaire and his public persona as a similarly brash businessman.”
“They hate white people, because white people are successful and they’re not.”
— Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-NC), in an interview with BBC News, commenting on the protests in North Carolina after police killed a black man.
A new McClatchy-Marist poll shows Hillary Clinton heads into the first presidential debate with a seven point lead over Donald Trump, 48% to 41%.
However, the poll also shows doubts among voters about about her trustworthiness and stamina are keeping Trump in the race.
Said pollster Lee Miringoff: “You wouldn’t bet for Clinton. But you certainly wouldn’t bet against her at this time.”
A new AP-GfK poll shows Clinton leading by six points, 45% to 39%.
Hillary Clinton’s latest ad shows girls of varying ages looking at their reflections as they hear Donald Trump make comments degrading women.
Amy Walter: “This, of course, is the billion-dollar question. And, it is one that pollsters and campaigns spend all their time and energy trying to get right. We are seeing an unprecedented level of transparency this year by pollsters and other media outlets about how they arrived at their results. Survey Monkey’sMark Blumenthal explained how they arrived at their ‘likely voter’ model. The New York Time’s Upshot farmed their raw polling data from a Florida poll to four different pollsters to show how each of them came up with a different margin for Clinton/Trump.”
“Perhaps the best new tool on the market was designed by friend of the Cook Political Report and political scientist Ken Goldstein which goes beyond just “averaging” the various polls to looking at the assumptions the pollsters made to get to the final result.”
“At the end of the day, no one knows exactly what turn-out will be until people actually turn-out. However, we know a couple things: first, only one campaign has a data-driven turn-out program (Clinton) to help identify and get their voters to the polls; and second, Democrats have a demographic advantage, but only if those voters – namely non-white and younger, turn out. The Obama coalition has helped to elect only one Democrat – Barack Obama. In the other two mid-term elections they have stayed home. Trump, meanwhile, needs to hit an unprecedented level of support from white voters and/or hope for a lower turnout among nonwhites.”
Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:
North Carolina: Clinton 41%, Trump 41% (NYT/Siena College)
Virginia: Clinton 51%, Trump 40% (Roanoke)
Colorado: Clinton 44%, Trump 35% (Colorado Mesa)
Wisconsin: Clinton 45%, Trump 38% (Emerson)
Florida: Trump 45%, Clinton 44% (Suffolk)
Colorado: Clinton 44%, Trump 42% (Quinnipiac)
Virginia: Clinton 45%, Trump 39% (Quinnipiac)
Iowa: Trump 44%, Clinton 37% (Quinnipiac)
Georgia: Trump 47%, Clinton 40% (Quinnipiac)
Jimmy Kimmel told random people that “Donald Trump released his taxes today” and then asked them specific questions about his fake tax returns.
Rick Klein: “Bringing home the Obama coalition would be easier for Hillary Clinton if they didn’t have other places to stay. Clinton’s weaknesses with critical demographics are well-documented, with complicated explanations. But they are being accentuated and exacerbated by the fact that Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are available as choices in the vast majority of states. The new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll finds Clinton leading among black voters over Donald Trump 76-5. That’s a blowout, but President Obama garnered numbers well into the 90s; Clinton isn’t coming close to that, primarily because Johnson and Stein are options. And younger voters of all races are thinking third party: Among those under 35, Johnson stands at 17 percent and Stein at 5 – nearly twice the shares of their overall support.”
For members: The Obama Coalition Isn’t Coming Together — Yet
Stuart Rothenberg: “Democratic strategists say they are ‘watching’ 50 or 60 races around the country, and they argue, quite reasonably, that Trump’s over-sized role in the election has improved their prospects in a handful of suburban districts that otherwise would not be competitive.”
“But Trump is not at this point the down-ballot disaster that some speculated he would be. National polls show him running only a few points behind Hillary Clinton, though he is doing worse in some states and with college-educated whites. Still, he isn’t Barry Goldwater or George McGovern – at least not now. Voters appear to be making a distinction between Trump and GOP down-ballot nominees.”
Donald Trump was asked by WTTE why he suddenly changed his views on whether President Obama was born in the United States.
Said Trump: “Well, I just wanted to get on with, I wanted to get on with the campaign.”
“Why aren’t I 50 points ahead?”
— Hillary Clinton, quoted by the Washington Post.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.