A new CNN/ORC International poll in Louisiana finds Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) with a small lead over Bill Cassidy (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 40%.
“But this is Louisiana, and the election system can be complicated. There are nine candidates — Republicans, Democrats, and a Libertarian — on the ballot this November, and if no candidate crosses the 50% threshold, the race moves into a December runoff between the top two contenders.”
A new CNN/ORC International survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) just ahead of challenger Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 43%, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 7%.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Annenberg poll finds that 72% of Americans say the United States will end up using its own combat troops against ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria, despite President Obama’s assertion that U.S. combat troops won’t be on the ground there.
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A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) leads Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race by six points, 44% to 38%.
“Just seven months ago, political analysts considered Braley almost a shoo-in for a seat held for 30 years by liberal Democrat Tom Harkin. Still, the 6-point deficit isn’t insurmountable with 37 days left until the Nov. 4 election, political analysts say. Twelve percent of likely voters remain undecided.”
Former Rep. James Traficant Jr. (D-OH), “whose career as a colorfully combative congressional gadfly ended in 2002 when he became the fifth House member ever expelled, died Saturday at a hospital in his native Youngstown,” Roll Call reports.
The Vindicator first reported the news just days after Traficant was critically injured when the tractor he was driving at his family farm flipped over.
“If the polls of early September were a reminder that the Democratic path to 50 seats remains open, then the last two weeks were a reminder of how quickly that path could close,” the New York Times reports.
“Recent polls in Iowa, Colorado and Alaska have offered better news for Republicans. As a result, the Republicans are again slight favorites to retake the Senate, according to Leo, The Upshot’s Senate model. They have a 61 percent chance of retaking the chamber, up from 50 percent in the middle of last week.”
Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 60% chance and Sam Wang gives Republicans a 61% chance.
“In an election year shaped by voter anger toward the political establishment, the outcome of an unusually large number of close Senate and governor’s races could be determined by the outsize role of third-party candidates,” the New York Times reports.
“The potential spoilers include a quixotic former three-term senator, a pizza delivery man and an Alaskan whose name, Fish, summons a favored native food. They represent independents, Libertarians and other parties that have suddenly become relevant — and could affect the balance of power in Congress and decide who runs the governor’s offices in several states.”
Amy Walter: “There’s a reason why the people who run campaigns are rarely the people responsible for implementing policy. The job of a campaign operative is to work in absolutes – you win or you lose, there’s no gray area. The job of a policy operative, of course, is to look for the gray, to look for solutions within the increasingly narrowing options of our polarized political system.”
“However, the way one wins a campaign ultimately determines how an incumbent and his/her party can (or cannot) legislate. And, the way that both sides have boxed themselves in on tough issues like immigration, entitlements, and climate change on the campaign trail ultimately leaves little room for any meaningful compromise in a 2015 Congress.”
Wall Street Journal: “The craft of opposition research–finding information that might put an opponent in a negative light–has long been a staple of political campaigns. This year, independent groups are taking a leading role, adding to the research done by candidates and party committees.”
“Like other parts of electioneering, such as buying TV airtime and soliciting donations by phone, opposition research is becoming a specialty of third-party groups. Two of the most prominent are America Rising, a 67-employee group that takes aim at Democrats, and American Bridge, whose 80-plus-staff targets Republicans. Both are backed by prominent donors–investor and money-manager George Soros, for example, has backed Democratic-aligned American Bridge, while hedge-fund founder Ken Griffin has given to America Rising.”
“I think it is a compliment but I also think Republicans need to realize that if we’re going to win national elections again the same old same old that has been losing will not win again.”
— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), in an interview with David Brody, on the White House saying he was the most interesting Republican.
“Defense attorneys for a Chicago businessman accused of illegal lobbying want to bring out at his trial next week allegations that then-Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) offered to try to get U.S. military contracts for a business in return for a job as a $250,000-a-year financial consultant after he left office,” the Chicago Sun Times reports.
Sam Wang notes that “in any given year, approximately 10% of Alaska’s population has just arrived or is about to move away.”
“This is reminiscent of Nevada, which has very similar statistics. Nevada is also the site of a spectacularly wrong polling error. In fall of 2010, surveys unanimously showed Republican Sharron Angle favored to unseat Democratic Senator (and Majority Leader) Harry Reid, by a median of four percentage points. Every data-based prognosticator, including me, expected Angle to win. Yet Reid won the election by 5 points, outperforming polls by 9 points. I regard this as the worst miss of Senate polling in the last three election cycles.”
“Based on the extreme mobility of Alaska residents, I suggest a problem of potentially far larger impact. Like Nevada, telephone-based surveys in both states simply fail to capture a sample that is fully representative of voters. In other words, I suggest that ideologically diverse states with lots of recent arrivals are subject to inaccuracy.”
“Kansas state government is on the verge of a financial windfall with the auctioning of thousands of sex toys seized by the revenue department for nonpayment of income, withholding and sales taxes,” the Topeka Capital Journal reports.
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett (R) “said today that he has asked state Attorney General Kathleen Kane for more information regarding old email accounts of top current and former Pennsylvania officials, including members of his own administration, that contained sexual images and videos,” the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Said Corbett: “I need the facts. I just can’t have the opinion of one person as to whether an email was ever read or deleted. I don’t know that to be the case.”
A new Rasmussen survey in Arkansas finds Tom Cotton (R) with a solid lead over Sen. Mark Pryor (D) in the state’s closely-watched U.S. Senate race, 47% to 40%.
“We should insist that ABC, NBC, CBS, they refer to the visitor according to the term that is politically correct: an undocumented White House visitor.”
— Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), quoted by TPM, on the man who jumped the fence at the White House.
A new Boston Globe poll in Massachusetts finds Charlie Baker (R) leading Martha Coakley (D) in the race for governors, 40% to 38%.
“Coakley may be suffering from the souring national mood toward her party’s leader, President Obama. Even in predominantly Democratic Massachusetts, more voters, 48 percent, disapprove of the president’s job performance, than approve, 46 percent.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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