Elect Project has a very useful early voting tracker.
Conservatives Secretly Plot to Oust Boehner
“For months, several clusters of conservative lawmakers have been secretly huddling inside and outside the Capitol, plotting to oust John Boehner from the Speaker’s office when House Republicans regroup after the November elections,” The Hill reports.
“The strategy — for now — seems disorganized and fluid: Find a way to push the Speaker’s race to a second ballot, create turmoil in the conference, portray Boehner as highly vulnerable and offer up an alternative.”
Scott Just Ahead in Florida
A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Gov. Rick Scott (R) edging challenger Charlie Crist (D) in the race for governor, 44% to 42%.
“Quinnipiac’s survey shows the relentlessly negative tone of the campaign is having an effect on the mood of voters as fewer than four out of 10 voters say Scott or Crist is honest and trustworthy. However, Scott outpaces Crist on leadership qualities by 58% to 46%, and Scott performs better among independent voters than Crist, 44% to 37%.”
A new SurveyUSA poll has Scott ahead 43% to 42%.
Cianci Leads in Race for Providence Mayor
A new WPRI 12/Providence Journal poll finds former Providence Mayor Vincent “Buddy” Cianci Jr. has a small lead over Jorge Elorza six weeks ahead of the election, 38% to 32%.
Cianci was mayor from 1974 to 1984 and again from 1990 to 2002, but was twice forced from office both times after felony convictions.
Cotton Still Leads in Arkansas
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arkansas finds Tom Cotton (R) leading Sen. Mark Pryor (D) by five points, 43% to 38%.
Key finding: “Cotton’s lead is up slightly from 41/39 on our previous poll. Voters aren’t in love with him- 40% see him favorably to 41% with an unfavorable opinion. But Pryor continues to have tough approval ratings, with 36% giving him good marks to 51% who disapprove.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“We have to change course because our country is heading for national socialism. That’s not right. It’s changing our culture. It’s changing what we’re all about.”
— Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS), quoted by TPM.
Webb Mulling White House Bid
Former Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) said he was seriously considering running for president on an anti-war platform, The Hill reports.
Said Webb: “I have strong reasons for being a Democrat. Basically if you want true fairness in society you want to give a voice in the corridors of power for the people who otherwise would not have it, I believe that will come from the Democratic Party and we’re taking a hard look, and we’ll get back to you in a few months.”
D’Souza Sentenced
Conservative writer/filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza was spared prison time when a federal judge sentenced him to five years probation for violating campaign finance laws, The Smoking Gun reports.
However, for the first eight months of his probation term, D’Souza will have to live in a “community confinement center” in San Diego. He will also have to pay a $30,000, undergo “therapeutic counseling” and perform one day per week of community service during his probation term.
Down to Four Races
Sam Wang says that “only four uncertain races remain: Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, and Arkansas. In each of these contests, the candidates are within two percentage points of one another. Power in the Senate will almost certainly depend on what happens in these states.”
Sullivan Grabs Lead in Alaska
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Alaska finds Dan Sullivan (R) just ahead of Sen. Mark Begich (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 41%.
Key finding: “Sullivan has gained 6 points since our last poll in early August, while Begich has dropped 2. Sullivan’s gain has come largely due to consolidating his support among Republican leaning voters since winning the primary last month. He now leads 75/9 among folks who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, compared to 70/11 on the last survey.”
On Wonk Wire
Some great clicks over at Wonk Wire:
Texas Man Traded Drugs for Votes
A man from Donna, Texas “will appear in federal court here next month on conspiracy and voter fraud charges for trading cocaine for votes in the 2012 school board elections,” the McAllen Monitor reports.
Quote of the Day
“I have no knowledge about whether she will or won’t, but my intuition tells me that she will. But that will probably not be known until, I would say, December.”
— Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), quoted by CNN, on whether Hillary Clinton will run for president.
Why Republicans Fight With Each Other
“In the five years since tea party came along, the Republican Party has spent a good amount of time fighting with itself. The Democratic Party, well … has not. As much as some would love to project the GOP’s infighting on to the Democratic presidential primary in 2016, it just isn’t happening right now,” the Washington Post notes.
“Want to know why that is? … On four issues — abortion, illegal immigration, government spending and gay marriage — there are more Republicans who say their party doesn’t do a good job than say it does…. On the flip side is the Democratic Party. On all four of the very same issues, more Democrats approve of their party than disapprove.”
“For the GOP, the good job/bad job split averages a negative 37.5-53.5. For Democrats, it’s basically the inverse, 55-36 positive.”
Democrats Seek to Drive Up Female Vote
Greg Sargent: “Here’s one way to understand the battle for the female vote. It’s often discussed in terms of the ‘gender gap,’ i.e., the margin any given Democratic candidate enjoys among women. That’s important, but Dems are also eying another key goal: How to drive up the share of the 2014 electorate that women represent.”
“Democratic strategists familiar with the hardest fought and probably most critical Senate races — in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and Arkansas — all tend to gravitate towards citing 53 percent as an important, if approximate, threshold. That is, they privately say that if the electorates in their states approach 53 percent women, and their candidates enjoy a reasonable advantage among them (as some polls suggest they do already), then their chances of winning improve.”
GOP Moves to Scorched Earth Campaign in Kansas
“Control of the Senate is potentially at stake in Kansas, and the GOP is beginning to double down,” The Hill reports.
“With a two-man race now looking all but certain, national Republicans are planning a scorched-earth offensive to frame Sen. Pat Roberts’s (R-Kan.) independent opponent, Greg Orman, as a shady businessman…. Kansas Republicans say to expect more information on his business dealings to come out in the coming weeks — likely as a systematic drip-drip of information, to keep the issue alive throughout the race.”
Family Funnels Donations Through Independent Group
“The family of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan has given another $300,000 to an independent group supporting Sullivan’s campaign, after donating more than $350,000 in advance of the Aug. 19 Republican Party primary,” the Alaska Dispatch News reports.
Jeb Bush Kicks Off Campaign Travel
Mike Allen: “As Jeb Bush plunges into a frenzy of fall travel for Senate candidates, his allies insist a presidential campaign is becoming more of a possibility than even they thought a few months ago. He’s doing a lot of under-the-radar prep, including foreign policy tutoring and meetings with tech gurus. And several of his friends think he is leaning more yes than no. The more opaque his plans, the greater the clamor – a ‘Greta Garbo strategy’ that has amped up demand for the former Florida governor.”
