Ron Brownstein: “If Democrats lose their majority this year, it will extend a striking pattern: Since 1980, neither party has controlled the Senate for more than eight consecutive years. That persistent volatility marks a distinct change from most of the 20th century. Given the underlying trends in voting behavior, it’s likely the Senate will continue to experience fragile and fleeting majorities. And that points toward both more partisan conflict and mounting pressure to rewrite Senate rules–like the filibuster–in ways that strengthen the majority.”
Predict the Senate
Democratic polling firm Hickman Analystics has a useful Senate prediction tool to test your assumptions about some of the closer races.
Rand Paul Opens Political Office in California
“Signaling that he may be edging closer to a 2016 White House run, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said Saturday he plans to open an office in the San Francisco Bay Area, one of the nation’s strongest Democratic bastions – and a convenient link to Silicon Valley,” the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Trippi Says It Would Be a ‘Miracle’ if Democrats Hold Senate
Democratic strategist Joe Trippi told Fox News that it would be a “miracle” in the current political environment for Democrats to hold on to the Senate.
Said Trippi: “I would gauge that Republicans are likely to pick up between five and eight seats.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Don’t lose too much weight now. I like my girls chubby!”
— Former Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI), quoted by the New York Times, to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).
The Best TV Shows for Political Ads
“Six weeks before Election Day, campaigns are deciding where and when they want to air their political ads all over the country. But not all shows and networks are equal in the eyes of media buyers. They have more choices than ever, and they approach these decisions with deliberation and armed with ratings data,” Roll Call reports.
“In interviews, operatives repeatedly said they look for three kinds of programs for political ads: Live events, and shows that attract women and seniors. Both parties fight fiercely for the female demographic, and seniors serve as one of the most reliable voting blocs in a midterm.”
Quote of the Day
“I’m staying out of that race. I think folks know that I love him.”
— George P. Bush, quoted by the Texas Tribune, when asked if he would endorse his father in the 2016 Republican presidential race.
Kansas Candidate Admits Strip Club Incident
“In the late 1990s the Democratic candidate for governor of Kansas was getting a lap dance at a strip club when cops raided it in search of drugs, a situation Paul Davis (D) on Saturday described as being ‘in the wrong place at the wrong time,'” Politico reports.
“Davis was not charged with any crime, but a police chief involved in the raid wrote afterward that he had been drinking and was found ‘in a somewhat compromising position … in a back room of the club.'”
GOP Holds Intensity Edge
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Annenberg poll shows that 54% of Republicans say they’re highly interested in the upcoming elections, compared to 44% of Democrats who say the same.
Another way to look at the GOP intensity advantage: Democrats hold a four-point lead on the generic ballot, 46% to 42%. But among high-interest voters, Republicans have the edge, 51% to 43%.
Giffords Unleashes Attacks on GOP Candidates
Former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ), “whose recovery from a gunshot wound to the head captivated the country, has unleashed some of the nastiest ads of the campaign season, going after GOP candidates in Arizona and New Hampshire with attacks even some left-leaning commentators say go too far,” Politico reports.
“And Republicans on the receiving end are largely helpless to hit back, knowing a fight with the much-admired survivor is not one they’re likely to win.”
Rove Says Democrats Have Money Edge
Karl Rove points to Democrats’ cash edge “as the main advantage the party has in keeping the GOP from taking control of the Senate,” Politico reports.
Said Rove: “The dynamics are good for Republicans — enthusiasm is high, Obama is low. The one advantage Democrats have had is a big cash advantage. They’ve already booked between Labor Day and election day $107 million in television advertising. The Republicans — $25 million less.”
Wolf Still Way Ahead in Pennsylvania
A new Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll in Pennsylvania finds Tom Wolf (D) continuing to crush Gov. Tom Corbett (R) in the race for governor, 54% to 33%.
Coakley Holds Slim Lead in Massachusetts
A new Boston Globe poll in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) barely leads Charlie Baker in the race for governor, 39% to 36% with 19% of likely voters undecided.
Orman’s Link to Jailed Investor Questioned
U.S. Senate front-runner Greg Orman (I) “plans to make public Monday a financial disclosure report required of U.S. Senate candidates outlining the footprint of his vast financial empire amid escalating interest in the independent’s bid for office,” the Topeka Capital Journal reports.
“The federal disclosure report could fill voids left by Orman’s remarks during a Topeka campaign stop indicating he had threadbare financial connections to former Wall Street mogul Rajat Gupta, a one-time Goldman Sachs board member sent to prison this year for securities fraud. Gupta’s criminal and civil fines exceeded $18 million.”
Dead Heat in Michigan
A new We Ask America poll in Michigan finds a dead heat in the race for governor with Gov. Rick Snyder (R) tied with challenger Mark Schauer (D), 43% to 43%.
In the U.S. Senate race, Gary Peters (D) leads Terri Lynn Land (R), 42% to 39%.
Rauner Slightly Ahead in Illinois
A new We Ask America poll in Illinois finds Bruce Rauner (R) just ahead of Gov. Pat Quinn (D) in the governor’s race, 44% to 41%.
Afghan Candidate Will Concede Only if Vote Total is Kept Secret
Abdullah Abdullah will concede defeat in Afghanistan’s elections and “agree on the formation of a national unity government only if election authorities do not publicly disclose their now-completed final tally,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Abdullah contends that the recent audit of the fraud-ridden election could not possibly detect all the fake ballots, so the final result should not be announced despite the legal requirement to do so.”
Intruder Gets Inside White House
“A man climbed over the White House fence and raced across the lawn and through the north portico doors Friday night, apparently only minutes after President Obama went out the south entrance on his way to Camp David… The man, who was not armed, was arrested just inside the doors,” the Washington Post reports.
