Michael Crowley: “To the extent Newt threatens the Establishment, it’s because of his electability-or lack thereof. The GOP’s mandarins see Gingrich’s nomination as a sure way to blow their chance of deposing Barack Obama. They see Gingrich as the political equivalent of a Fukushima nuclear plant worker, with polls showing him to be lethally irradiated by his negative approval ratings. Whereas Mitt Romney is running about even with Barack Obama in head-to-head polling, Newt loses by double-digit margins. Sure, those numbers could change if Gingrich beats Romney and wins the nomination, with all the accolades it entails. On the other hand, his grandiosity syndrome may kick in, as it has before, and render him a laughing stock. Hence the many Establishment Republicans now saying things like, ‘Newt means losing 45 states.'”
High Stakes Debate Tonight
First Read: “When the remaining four presidential candidates gather for the 18th debate of the cycle tonight in Tampa, FL, the stakes couldn’t be any higher, especially for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. For Romney — fresh off his double-digit defeat in South Carolina and after uneven performances in his last two debates — tonight’s debate is a crucial moment for his campaign. Either he rises to the occasion (by providing sharper answers, by disqualifying Gingrich, and by proving to GOP voters the confidence he can be their guy in November), or he struggles again, giving Gingrich a path to overtake him in Florida. For Gingrich, tonight’s debate will prove if he can withstand the attacks (because they’re coming), and if he can pull off another strong performance.”
“And don’t lose sight of Rick Santorum (who has leveled pointed criticism
at both Romney and Gingrich in past debates) or Ron Paul (who has
sometimes has served as Romney’s wingman). If we learned anything from
South Carolina, it’s that the debates have mattered, and tonight’s
debate likely won’t be any different.”
The debate starts at 9 p.m. ET on NBC.
Kirk Suffers a Stroke
Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) was hospitalized with a stroke over the weekend and underwent surgery today in Illinois, the Chicago Tribune reports.
National Journal reports Kirk “likely faces permanent physical damage and a long-term cognitive recovery after successful surgery.”
Gingrich Jumps Into Lead in Florida
A new Rasmussen survey in Florida shows Newt Gingrich jumping into the lead in the GOP presidential race with 41%, followed by Mitt Romney at 32%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 8%.
Two earlier polls also showed Gingrich surging into the lead in Florida.
Walker Claims Both Balanced Budget and Deficit
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) administration “has touted for months its efforts to balance the state budget, but now it also has acknowledged a significant way in which the budget isn’t balanced,” the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports.
“To keep the possibility alive of making further cuts to state health programs, the Walker administration quietly certified to the federal government on Dec. 29 that the state had a deficit. Federal law allows the state to drop tens of thousands of adults to save money on health care costs if the state can show it has a deficit. Walker has said he wants to cut health care spending in other ways, but
hasn’t ruled out dropping those 53,000 adults if the other methods
aren’t approved by the federal government.”
State of the Campaign Address?
As President Obama prepares to give his State of the Union Address on Tuesday night, The Hill looks at the efforts to balance the policy and politics of an election year address.
“The White House has said in no uncertain terms that Obama’s path to
another term will be cleared by open conflict with a
Republican-controlled House that is deeply unpopular with voters, so
observers expect a pugnacious Obama to take the lectern… While there
might be some finger-wagging, don’t expect a trash-talking president.
After all, you can’t exactly walk into someone else’s house, sit on the
living room couch and drop some insults… At the same time, the White
House has pushed back at suggestions the State of the Union will be
Obama’s first major stump speech of his reelection bid, insisting Obama
will focus on policy in the address.”
When Perry Comes Home
As Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) wraps up his failed presidential bid and heads home to continue governing his state, Time
reports that he “returns bruised and diminished, taking his place among
a gallery of strong talkin’, wide-steppin’ Texas politicos who have
ventured across the Red River only to return with their tails between
their legs.”
“Many Texans must feel that the governor is returning as
damaged goods with lots of self-inflicted political wounds which he
will have to heal fast to be able to be effective at governing the
state… Texas has no term limits and Perry spokesman Ray Sullivan said
following the drop out announcement that the governor would not rule out
another term… But there are other strong Republicans standing in the
queue for the top job in Texas, including Attorney General Greg Abbott.
Meanwhile, a few Republicans are beginning to question Perry’s policies
and approach, some even agreeing to go on the record.”
Facilitator of Change
Ryan Lizza notes that although many hoped Barack Obama would be someone “who reshapes public opinion and the political landscape with his charisma and his powers of persuasion.”
“Instead, Obama has turned out to be… ‘a facilitator of change.’ The facilitator is acutely aware of the constraints of public opinion and Congress. He is not foolish enough to believe that one man, even one invested with the powers of the Presidency, can alter the fundamentals of politics… Directors are more like revolutionaries. Facilitators are more like tacticians. Directors change the system. Facilitators work the system. Obama’s first three years as President are the story of his realization of the limits of his office, his frustration with those constraints, and, ultimately, his education in how to successfully operate within them. A close look at the choices Obama made on domestic policy, based on a review of hundreds of pages of internal White House documents, reveals someone who is canny and tough–but who is not the President his most idealistic supporters thought they had elected.”
Romney’s Bain Problem
“The verdict is in: Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital problem is real,” Politico reports.
“Of all the forces that converged to doom Romney in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, none may be as disconcerting for Republicans as the attacks on Romney’s private equity work — an offensive that caught Romney off-guard and triggered a damaging conversation about his vast personal wealth.”
Gingrich Surges in Florida
Coming off his big win in South Carolina, a new InsiderAdvantage poll in Florida shows Newt Gingrich surging into the lead of the GOP presidential race with 34%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26%, Ron Paul at 13% and Rick Santorum at 11%.
Meanwhile, in the first night of polling Florida, Public Policy Polling finds Gingrich and Romney “neck and neck.”
Quote of the Day
“We’re not choosing a talk show host. We’re choosing the person who should be leader of the free world.”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by the Los Angeles Times, alluding to his Newt Gingrich’s strong debate performances that helped shift momentum in the GOP presidential race.
Romney on the Attack
Speaking in Florida, Mitt Romney “deviated from his standard remarks early, looking to define the candidate who mauled him in South Carolina in a different light by bringing up the tumultuous end of Gingrich’s tenure as speaker of the House of Representatives,” NBC News reports.
Said Romney: “So I’ve had the experience of leadership. Now Speaker Gingrich has also been a leader. He was a leader for four years as speaker of the House. And at the end of four years it was proven he was a failed leader. And he had to resign in disgrace. I don’t know if you knew that. He actually resigned after four years in disgrace. He was investigated under an ethics panel and had to make a payment associated with that and then his fellow Republicans, 88 percent of Republicans, voted to reprimand Speaker Gingrich. He has not had a record of successful leadership.”
“Direct assaults like this from Romney on the stump are rare enough to be startling to those who hear him speak daily, but Romney didn’t stop there, also tying Gingrich to the housing crisis in a state where the collapse in home values has been acutely felt.”
Here Come the Super Super PACs
Politico: “Here’s how it works: under new federal rules, a traditional PAC and super PAC may operate under one roof. These hybrid operations can raise and spend unlimited amounts of cash to promote or oppose candidates, as any super PAC can, while simultaneously giving limited amounts of money directly to campaigns and committees, like a traditional political action committee. Already, 11 of these hybrids have emerged, representing a range of political ideologies and purposes.”
Giffords Will Step Down from Congress
Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), who was shot in the head during a 2011 assassination attempt, announced that she will resign from Congress this week in order to focus on her continuing recovery, the Arizona Republic reports.
“Giffords, whose ability to speak was damaged by the gunman’s attack, made the announcement herself in a YouTube video posted to her account. She plans to attend President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address on Tuesday and will resign sometime after that.”
Washington Post: “According to state law, Gov. Jan Brewer must set a date for a special election primary 80 to 90 days after Giffords formally steps down, and a general election will be set for 50 to 60 days after the primary. So the primary election for Giffords seat will likely be held in late April with the general election in June.”
What if Gingrich Wins Florida?
John Heilemann: “If Gingrich wins Florida, the Republican Establishment is going to have a meltdown that makes Three Mile Island look like a marshmallow roast.”
“Why? Because the Establishment will be staring down the barrel of two utterly unpalatable choices. On the one hand, Gingrich’s national favorable-unfavorable ratings of 26.5 and 58.6 percent, respectively make him not just unelectable against Obama but also mean that he would likely be a ten-ton millstone around the necks of down-ballot Republican candidates across the country. And on the other, Romney has shown in two successive contests — one in a bellwether Republican state, the other in a key swing state — an inability to beat his deeply unpopular rival. If this scenario unfolds, the sound of GOP grandees whispering calls for a white knight… will be deafening.”
Why Florida Could Be Tough for Romney
Mitt Romney has two advantages as the Florida primary approaches on January 31: money and early voting. Romney and an aligned Super PAC
have spent more than $7 million of airtime already in the state and nearly 200,000 Republicans have already cast their votes.
But Politico notes Newt Gingrich heads into Florida “emboldened by two assets that will test Romney’s organization and money there: the momentum from a double-digit victory and a conservative base that appears to be coalescing. But the results here revealed Romney’s weakness as much as they hinted at Gingrich’s potential. The establishment favorite didn’t just lose South Carolina – he got thrashed,”
First Read adds that the GOP electorate in Florida “has the potential to be unkind to Romney. Think South Carolina but with Cuban Americans in Miami thrown into the mix. According to the 2008 exit polls, 61% of Florida Republican primary voters considered themselves conservative (68% said they were conservative in South Carolina last night). And remember: Florida’s primary is closed, meaning that independents don’t get to vote. After all, it’s the same electorate that picked Rick Scott in 2010 over establishment favorite Bill McCollum.”
Adam Smith: “As important as money, television advertising and organization are here,
momentum tends to trump everything else in widely watched presidential
campaigns. Romney easily outspent and out-organized John McCain in
Florida in 2008 and still lost.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“One or two more defeats and who knows what he’s going to say….I think he’s been dancing on eggs trying to find a version of Romney that will work.”
— Newt Gingrich, in an interview on Face the Nation, about GOP presidential rival Mitt Romney.
Romney Will Release Tax Returns This Week
Mitt Romney told Fox News that he will release his tax returns for 2010 on Tuesday, with an estimate of his 2011 returns.
Said Romney: “We made a mistake holding off as long as we did.”
