The Upshot: “Every day, our computer churns through the latest polls and reams of historical data to calculate both parties’ chances of winning control of the Senate. Although the Democrats currently have a 51% chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.”

“The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54%. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.”

The model behind these projections is called LEO.

Lynn Vavreck: “If you want to understand the 2014 midterm elections, remember this simple fact about American politics: There just aren’t that many swing voters.”

“Many people change their minds over the course of a campaign about whether to vote and even which candidate they’re leaning toward. Ultimately, though, voters tend to come home to their favored party. There are relatively few voters who cross back and forth between the parties during a campaign or even between elections.”

Nate Cohn: “Democrats’ hopes of keeping their Senate majority this November may well hinge on the ability of three of their incumbents to hold onto their seats deep in enemy territory: the South. To take the Senate and consolidate their control of Congress, Republicans need only extend their stranglehold on Dixie to Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, all of which voted for Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election.”

“Yet the hopes of these three states’ incumbent Democratic senators — Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan — are still alive. That may be surprising in light of the region’s lurch to the right, but it shouldn’t be: Incumbency is powerful. In the South, Democratic incumbents have won 85 percent of the time since 1990, and 77 percent since 2000.”

A new St. Marys College poll in Maryland finds Anthony Brown (D) leading the Democratic race for governor with 27%, followed by Doug Gansler (D) at 11% and Heather Mizuer (D) at 8%.

On the Republican side, Larry Hogan (R) leads with 16%, followed by David Craig (R) at 8%, Ron George (R) at 4% and Charles Lollar (R) at 4%.

Former Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS) doesn’t think “first-termers” like Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Rand Paul (R-KY) or Ted Cruz (R-TX) are ready to be president, the Huffington Post reports.

Said Dole: “A number of the younger members, first-termers like Rand Paul, Rubio and that extreme-right-wing guy — Ted Cruz? All running for president now. I don’t think they’ve got enough experience yet.”

“Republicans have spent millions ahead of Tuesday’s special primary to replace former Rep. Trey Radel (R-FL) — and the 19th District television airwaves show it,” Roll Call reports.

“Three of Radel’s potential successors boast at least $1 million in airtime behind each of their efforts — both from their own campaigns and outside groups boosting them. It’s a staggering number for an otherwise under-the-radar primary in a special election.”

“Just weeks after a key Supreme Court ruling on political fundraising, the cash marathon has begun to the Bay Area — with a crowd of Democratic Senators hitting Silicon Valley to pick up campaign checks,” the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

John Sides updates his House midterm election forecast and finds “the prognosis for Democrats isn’t any better: the median estimate is a small seat loss (to 196 seats). The chance of their regaining the House is still very low — about 1%.”

Meanwhile, the estimates for Republicans “are centered around a median of 239, which would represent a gain of 5 seats relative to the 234-seat Republican majority after the 2012 election.”

This new spot against Vincent Shaheen (D) in South Carolina’s gubernatorial race sets a new standard for nasty.

[Read more…]

Harry Enten: “Indeed, knowing how many electoral votes leaned more toward one party than the nation in one election tells us very little about how many will lean toward that party in the next election. An Electoral College advantage is often taken as a sign of a structural advantage, but for the most part, it’s been cyclical. The Democratic edge in 2008 and 2012 may be more due to randomness than demographics.”