“Given the month she just had, I doubt whether or not she will run for president in 2016.”
— RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, quoted by Newsmax, on the possibility Hillary Clinton will make another White House run.
Very Tight in Kentucky
A new Survey USA poll in Kentucky finds Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) barely edging Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) in their U.S. Senate race, 43% to 42%.
In the GOP primary, McConnell holds a commanding lead over Matt Bevin (R), 55% to 35%.
Republicans Press on Clinton’s Health
Hillary Clinton’s health and age are “fair game” for political debate if she decides to run for president, Republicans argued Sunday, even as Democrats called it “pathetic” for Karl Rove to suggest recently that she suffered from some kind of “brain injury” two years ago, the Los Angeles Times reports.
Said RNC Chairman Reice Priebus: “I’m not a doctor. What I do know is that the issue is going to come up as it does for any person running for president.”
Perdue Maintains Primary Lead in Georgia
A new Insider Advantage poll in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) leading the GOP Senate pack with 27%, followed by Jack Kingston (R) at 19%, Karen Handel (R) at 17%, Phil Gingrey (R) at 10% and Paul Broun (R) at 9%.
However, a poll done for GA Pundit finds a three-way tie between Perdue, Kingston and Handel.
Sasse Way Ahead in Nebraska
A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Nebraska finds Ben Sasse (R) way ahead of David Domina (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 34%.
Wehby Leads Primary in Oregon
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll in Oregon shows Monica Wehby (R) way ahead of Jason Conger in the GOP Senate primary, 41% to 24%.
Castro Said to be Cabinet Pick
President Obama “is preparing to nominate Mayor Julián Castro of San Antonio as his new secretary of housing and urban development, elevating one of his party’s Hispanic rising stars as part of a cabinet shuffle that has possible implications for the 2016 presidential race,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Castro, who has often been mentioned as a potential vice-presidential candidate for the Democrats, would take the place of Shaun Donovan, who is to become director of the Office of Management and Budget. That job is being vacated by Sylvia Mathews Burwell, whom Mr. Obama tapped to be secretary of health and human services and who seems headed to Senate confirmation.”
Conversation with Susan Demas
Susan Demas, publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, joins us to discuss a very tight U.S. Senate race, a compelling governor’s race and an unbelievable recent blunder by a 25-term U.S. Congressman.
Listen here:
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Special thanks to the Cook Political Report for sponsoring this episode. If your business is politics, you need to subscribe. Highly recommended.
Lessons from Idaho
Huffington Post: 10 lessons we learned from Idaho’s incredibly dysfunctional GOP candidates
9/11 Ceremony Scraps Song for Christie
“A last-minute change avoided what could have been an uncomfortable moment in the Sept. 11 museum dedication ceremony Thursday: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie followed by Bridge Over Troubled Water,” the AP reports.
“The original program for the ceremony had Christie’s remarks followed by Idina Menzel’s performance of the song. That sent social media aflutter with speculation that the scheduling was a jab at the Republican governor, whose staff was accused of intentionally clogging traffic near a bridge that connects New York City and New Jersey to punish a political adversary.”
Huffington Post: 10 songs that can no longer be played at Christie events
On Wonk Wire
Advantage on Issues Won’t Save Democrats
Brendan Nyhan: “Democrats know they face a difficult midterm campaign landscape, but they can cling to one seeming reason for hope: The public agrees with them more than with Republicans on the issues.”
“This apparent political advantage is less important than it might seem, however. For instance, Democrats had greater advantages on several major issues at comparable points in the 1994 and 2010 electoral cycles, which both resulted in Republican landslides.”
Is Shinseki the New Sebelius?
Washington Examiner: “The secretary of Veterans Affairs has almost overnight replaced Sebelius as the new fall guy for Obama, in this case over mismanagement of veterans’ health care. But, for various reasons, Shinseki is faring a little better. Unlike Sebelius, most elected lawmakers have resisted calling for his resignation for now. Republicans seem to prefer pinning the problem on Obama, not Shinseki.”
Big Donors Aren’t Getting What They’re Paying For
Seth Masket: “But a few points stand out. First, small donors appear to be more polarized than the CEOs and the top .01 percent. All those donors are relatively polarized, with donors clustered around the party medians, but the wealthier folks are somewhat less so. Second, the 30 wealthiest donors in the country are actually pretty moderate, at least judging from this measure. Apart from some extremists like George Soros and the Koch brothers, most exist between the party medians.”
“This presents an interesting conundrum. We know Congress has grown more polarized over the past three decades. And we know that the very wealthy are donating more and more each year. But the very wealthy aren’t necessarily that polarized. If they were buying the government they wanted, they’d be getting a more moderate one than we currently have.”
The Tea Party Fizzles
First Read: “The outlook for the Tea Party in the next four weeks looks bleak. Things can always change, of course, but the GOP establishment finds itself in a stronger position right now than anyone would have thought six months ago. So how have they done it? Perhaps two reasons. One, establishment Republicans took their challengers more seriously and did oppo on them as if they were Democratic opponents. Two, the issue that animated the Tea Party base more than any other — the debt (remember, that was Santelli’s rant; not health care) — just doesn’t seem like a crisis anymore. The deficit controls that have been put into place over the last two years seem to have satisfied a significant chunk of the GOP base.”
Clinton Poll Numbers Remain Very High
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that Hillary Clinton has a 57% positive favorability rating with 43% have a negative view.
Also interesting: Nearly one-quarter of Republicans said they had a favorable view of Clinton.
New Race Ratings
The Cook Political Report updated its ratings for a slew of Senate, House and Governor’s races.
If you don’t subscribe yet, you really should.
Senate Hopeful Accused of Stalking Boyfriend
Oregon U.S. Senate candidate Monica Wehby (R) was accused by her ex-boyfriend last year of “stalking” him, entering his home without his permission and “harassing” his employees, according to a Portland, Oregon police report, according to Politico.
The Week: Wehby is having a bizarre month.
