Ezra Klein is our guest on the latest Political Wire podcast, discussing the policy and political ramifications of the disastrous roll out of the Obamacare digital infrastructure.
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Eleanor Clift: “If it takes an imagined presidential run to generate interest in her signature issue of banking reform, freshman Senator Elizabeth Warren won’t be issuing any Shermanesque statements.”
“Thinking of her as a possible presidential contender boosts media coverage and helps her cause, and so she will smile and play along if it can advance what she cares about, which is holding accountable the banks that are even bigger today than they were when the crisis hit in 2008.”
The Hawaii state Senate “overwhelmingly approved a marriage
equity bill today, sending the measure to Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) who has
vowed to sign it and make Hawaii the 15th state to legalize same-sex
marriage,” the Honolulu Star Advertiser reports.
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“I think the president was grossly misleading to the American public.”
— Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR), quoted by the Weekly Standard, on President Obama’s repeated statements that Americans would be able to keep their existing health care insurance under Obamacare.
Rep. Phill Gingrey (R-GA) released a new ad saying he would repeal Obamacare in his first term as a U.S. Senator or not run again.
Said Gingrey: “I’ll help repeal Obamacare in my first term or go home because you deserve a senator who gets the job done or gets out of the way. Repeal or go home, that’s my pledge to you.”
A new Quinnipiac poll finds American voters disapprove of the job President Obama is doing by 54% to 39%, his lowest approval rating since he became president.
Also notable is that even women disapprove of the president by 51% to 40%.
Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Like all new presidents, President Obama had a honeymoon with American voters, with approval ratings in the high 50s. As the marriage wore on, he kept his job approval scores in the respectable, though not overwhelming, 40s. Today, for the first time it appears that 40 percent floor is cracking.”
“That’s because it’s been extreme. So it’s hard for some people not to comment on it.”
— Sarah Palin, in an interview on CNN, on New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) appearance.
Politico:
“A year after the 2012 election in which the Obama campaign dominated
on data and Republicans wondered how they could catch up, both parties
saw 2013 as not only a testing ground for new digital strategies but
also a test of how much ground the GOP has made up. Democratic
Gov.-elect Terry McAuliffe’s campaign, building on the foundations of
Obama’s 2012 data operation, was able to adapt many of Obama’s data
strategies to a state-level race.”
Domenico Montanaro responds to Stu Rothenberg’s analysis of why Ken Cuccinelli (R) lost the Virginia governor’s race last week.
“Could Cuccinelli conceivably have won by winning every white guy and his wife? Sure. And could it mean that Republicans can do well in the midterms by winning just ‘white guys and their wives’ since minorities and young voters traditionally turn out at lower rates in those elections? Maybe. But, as Virginia’s and the nation’s demography continue to change, is that really a winning national strategy for Republicans? It wasn’t for Romney. The fact that black voters showed up the way they did was an important factor in McAuliffe’s win that shouldn’t be dismissed.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds the U.S. Senate race “has tightened up quite a bit in the last couple months, with early attacks ads on Kay Hagan and the unpopular rollout of Obamacare taking a toll on her poll numbers.”
Hagan is now basically tied with her Republican challengers, leading Heather Grant (R) 43% to 40%, Thom Tillis (R) 44% to 42%, and Mark Harris (R) 43% to 41% while trailing Greg Brannon 44% to 43%.
National Journal:
“Colorado is back as a national bellwether. Earlier this year, a
Democratic-led push to enact stricter gun-control measures cost two
state senators their jobs and tarnished once-popular Gov. John
Hickenlooper’s bipartisan sheen. Last week, voters overwhelmingly
rejected a sweeping measure to raise the state’s income tax. And now,
Hickenlooper is in a fight with some of his core supporters over a ban
on a process of natural-gas drilling known as ‘fracking.’ … Taken
together, the moves are a course correction for a state that seemed to
be drifting inexorably to the left. And they’ve caught the attention of
the Democrats up for reelection in 2014, Hickenlooper and Sen. Mark
Udall, both of whom have begun plotting their own paths back toward the
political center.”
Bill Clinton told OZY that President Obama should change the law so that people can keep their existing health insurance plans.
Said Clinton: “I personally believe, even if it takes a change in the law, that the president should honor the commitment the federal government made to those people and let them keep what they’ve got.”
First Read looks at the latest NBC News poll and finds Hillary Clinton has huge advantages over any Democrat willing to challenge her for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.
“She gets 70% among females, 70% among whites, 71%
among seniors, 72% among the lowest-income Democrats, and 73% in the
Northeast and 70% in the Midwest. Where she underperforms is among men
(62%), college grads (62%), and 60% among upper-income Democrats – these
are the remnants of Obama’s white coalition in the ’08 Democratic race.
But a reality check here: She’s still getting SIXTY PERCENT among these
folks, which suggests there isn’t really a substantial opening for
another Democratic candidate (whether it’s Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren,
or anyone else). Remember, in 2005, there was some real Clinton fatigue
among Democrats that provided the opening for Obama. That’s not the
evidence right now.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times reports “a dozen or so
other political operatives and 170 donors will gather in New York to
plot how to help Mrs. Clinton win in 2016. The meeting is the first
national finance council strategy meeting of Ready for Hillary, a ‘super
PAC’ devoted to building a network to support Mrs. Clinton’s potential
presidential ambitions.”
National Journal:
“History says President Obama’s sagging approval ratings — which this
month have neared the lows of his entire presidency — aren’t going to
improve before he leaves the White House in 2017. And that’s a troubling
trajectory for Democrats feeling the pressure of reelection next year.”
Charlie Cook says that “all the speculation about “will Hillary run” among
Democrats and the rise on the Republican side of Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Rand Paul (R-KY), Marco Rubio (R-FL) along with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) “is rather extraordinary a year
before even the midterm elections.”
Politico:
“It’s just mid-November, but it’s quickly becoming a reality:
Washington could be mostly done making laws for the year. If it isn’t
evident by looking at the thin congressional calendar, top sources in
both chambers are downright grim that the final eight weeks in 2013 will
produce any legislative breakthroughs, like a broad budget agreement or
an immigration deal.”
The Hill takes a good look at how immigration reform died a quiet death in the House of Representatives.
Stuart Rothenberg: “Though you hear a lot about the changing face of the electorate, both nationally and in Virginia, that’s not why Cuccinelli lost last week.”
“The Virginia election in 2013 was one where the Republican nominee would have won merely by attracting the votes of the same people who voted for Mitt Romney. The party’s candidate for governor did not need to improve his showing among young voters, African-Americans, Hispanics or unmarried women. He just needed to get white guys and their wives.”
“That conclusion, which is based on an evaluation of all of the data, not on merely cherry-picking one or two variables, ought to be little comfort for Democratic strategists worrying about the makeup of the midterm electorate.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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