Nate Cohn: “Obama’s road to victory in Ohio starts with a strong showing among the African American voters that provided Bush with reelection eight years ago. It’s often overlooked just how much Obama gains over Kerry’s performance just by winning an outsized share of African Americans. According to the 2004 exit polls, Bush’s concerted efforts to appeal to African American voters–mainly on cultural issues–held Kerry to just 84 percent of the black vote. African American voters predictably swung decisively toward Obama, offering him 97 percent of the vote on Election Day with an additional point of black turnout.”

“In 2004, Bush won Ohio by 118,000 votes, but Obama’s gains among African American voters are sufficient to erase Kerry’s deficit without any changes in the composition of the electorate.”

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) proposed a Constitutional amendment that would give the winner of the popular vote in the presidential race an additional 29 electoral votes, The Hill reports.

“Swing states would still retain their importance in the Electoral College, but the additional 29 delegates awarded to the popular vote winner would fundamentally alter the focus of the campaigns. Candidates would have to target voters in states they have no chance of winning, as well as in states they have no chance of losing.”

First Read: “After weather disrupted both the GOP and Democratic conventions over the summer, Mother Nature appears to have one more surprise in store for the two campaigns: Hurricane Sandy. With that storm approaching the East Coast, it raises a host of questions. What happens to Obama’s events with Bill Clinton on Monday in Florida and Virginia? Does it snow in the Midwest, where both Obama and Romney are set to campaign later next week? Does the hurricane even hit Romney’s campaign headquarters in Boston? These are a lot of questions, but we don’t have any answers. This puts a MAJOR wrench into the final week of travel plans for both campaigns; And of course, how the government responds will get extra scrutiny and, well, ya never know. Now we have our October surprise.”

Mitt Romney is placing television ads in Minnesota, “a move that pushes his presidential campaign into a state Democrats have held for more than three decades,” the AP reports.

First Read: “So what’s going on in Minnesota? Is the Romney campaign buying TV ad time there to create a narrative that the map is expanding? Do they really think they have a chance in Minnesota, or do they just have money to burn? If they were serious about expanding the map, wouldn’t they be putting this money in Pennsylvania? Just a few questions worth asking and thinking about.”

Nate Cohn: “It’s probably all about Wisconsin with a side benefit of momentum.”

Charlie Cook: “A strong performance in that first debate would have probably closed
the sale for Obama. Instead, his lackluster showing shifted a bunch of
voters who had seemed to be drifting gradually in his direction back
into neutral, with some reversing course and moving into Romney’s
column.”

“This race is still a challenge for Romney.
Although tied nationally in this new NBC/WSJ and most other polling, he
still carries a great deal of scar tissue in some of the swing
states–most notably, Ohio and Wisconsin, but also Colorado and Iowa.
Romney is clearly better situated to win the popular vote than the
electoral vote; Obama is much closer than Romney to the magic 270 number
in the Electoral College. But this is a horse race, a very close one
that can still go either way, and that was not the case before the first
debate. The debates–and I would say all three of them–hit a reset
button for Romney and put him back into this contest.”

“Well, I think when you have somebody of your own race that you’re proud
of being president of the United States, I applaud Colin for standing
with him.”

— John Sununu, in an interview with Piers Morgan, on Colin Powell’s endorsement of President Obama.

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Washington Post: “An explosive story about the massive wealth accumulated by the family of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao caused the Chinese government to block the Web site of the New York Times early Friday morning, just days before a sensitive once-in-a-decade transition of power from Wen and others to a new generation of leaders.”

“The article documents assets controlled by Wen’s family worth at least $2.7 billion, a shocking figure even in a country where government corruption is rampant and popular resentment against the elite has increased in recent years. The scandal also complicates the apparent intention of Chinese leaders to tackle corruption as a main issue at the Nov. 8 party congress, a move they have been signaling in the wake of other scandals that had dramatically shaken the party’s core leadership.”

Bloomberg: “It would take about 80 days of nonstop viewing to see all 58,235 of the typically 30-second Ohio presidential advertisements that have aired in the last month.”

“Facing a massive early voting deficit less than two weeks out from election day, the Romney campaign is projecting a mixed message as the candidate works to keep alive his claim to momentum,” McKay Coppins reports.

“In memos and press gaggles, Republicans insist they’re so far behind by strategic choice — focusing their efforts on helping unlikely voters get to the polls now, and leaving their enthusiastic base to fend for themselves on November 6.”

“But as Mitt Romney and Senator Rob Portman zig-zagged across Ohio Thursday, they repeatedly made a point of pleading for early votes from the cheering partisans who gathered at their rallies — the very group the campaign says they’re not trying to get to the polls.”

President Obama voted today — becoming the first president to vote before Election Day — “in his hometown of Chicago, punching his choices into a touch-screen machine after signing forms and showing his driver’s license,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Obama: “Now ignore the fact that there’s no gray hair on that picture. I’m just glad I renewed my driver’s license.”

“I thought what he said was kinda crazy. But having said that, this election for president is not about that.”

— Former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), quoted by Politico, on Indiana U.S. Senate candidate Richard Mourdock’s comments on rape and abortion.

Mark Halperin: “The Romney high command did a Thursday afternoon conference call with some of their biggest donors and bundlers from around the country, urging them to push hard for the next week to bring in more dough.”

“According to a source familiar with the call, Romney national finance chair Spencer Zwick and pollster Neil Newhouse gave the group a briefing on the state of the race and pressed them to raise more more more in the next week. Newhouse told the group that the battleground states are within 2-3
points in their data and they need more money for additional last-minute
television ads, direct mail, and other forms of voter contact.”

Here are the latest polls from the battleground:

Colorado: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 43% (Project New America)

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (Gravis)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Project New America)

Iowa:: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Michigan: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Foster McCollum)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist)

North Carolina: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Rasmussen)

Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Virginia: Romney 47%, Obama 45% (Fox News)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is ready to test his political strength in Nevada, the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Reid has spent the last 10 years building a political machine that helped Mr. Obama win Nevada in 2008 and carried Mr. Reid to a re-election victory two years ago that stunned many pollsters. It is widely praised — even by Republicans — as one of the most effective voter-organizing and money-raising political organizations…”

“Mr. Reid’s organization is a large reason that Mr. Obama is favored by many analysts to win narrowly in Nevada, despite what may be the worst economic climate in the nation and a sizable population of voters who, like Mitt Romney, are Mormons. Mr. Reid, who has long been strongly supportive of Mr. Obama in Washington… has made it clear that he views a victory for Mr. Obama in his state as a personal mission. This reflects not only his admiration for the president but also his visceral dislike for Mr. Romney, expressed in constant needling and attacks for almost six months.”

A state district judge temporarily ordered Montana gubernatorial candidate Rick Hill (R) to stop spending a disputed $500,000 donation and cancel all pending ads bought with this money, the Montana Standard reports.

Steve Bullock (D) says the $500,000 donation received by Hill’s campaign illegally exceeds the $22,600 maximum aggregate limit that a political party can give to a candidate for governor. But Hill says he legally received the donation during a six-day window when state contribution limits were struck down by a federal judge and before they were reinstated by an appeals court.

As you might expect, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert had a few things to say about Donald Trump’s “very big” announcement yesterday.

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