Mark Blumenthal: “The overall standings produced by the aggregation of all of the public polls in the battleground states have been essentially unchanged for nearly three weeks. Although the margins have closed since the first debate and remain very close, Obama holds advantages of 2 percentage points or better in four states — Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin — that would combine with those favoring him by larger margins to give him 277 electoral votes, 7 more than needed for victory.”
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Republicans Still Favored to Keep House
Washington Post: “President Obama remains at least an even bet to win reelection. Democrats are favored to hold on to the Senate — an outcome few prognosticators envisioned at the beginning of the year. And yet, with a little more than a week to go, the party holds almost no chance of winning back the House.”
“Analysts cite several factors why the Democrats haven’t been able to
take advantage. First was a redistricting process that made some
Republicans virtually impervious to a challenge and re-election more
difficult for about 10 Democrats. A few Democratic incumbents have
stumbled in their first competitive races in years. And Republicans have
leveraged their majority into a fund-raising operation that has
out-muscled the Democrats.”
Kerrey Within Striking Distance in Nebraska
A new Omaha World Herald poll in Nebraska finds Deb Fischer (R) with a three-point lead over former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 45%.
The findings confirm a recent Pharos Research Group survey that showed Fischer ahead by about 2.5 points.
Iowa’s Largest Newspaper Backs Romney
The Des Moines Register endorsed Mitt Romney for president.
“Voters should give Mitt Romney a chance to correct the nation’s fiscal course and to implode the partisan gridlock that has shackled Washington and the rest of America — with the understanding that he would face the same assessment in four years if he does not succeed.”
The newspaper reported earlier this week President Obama wouldn’t speak to editors on-the-record, a position later reversed by the White House.
Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
North Carolina: Romney 52%, Obama 46% (Rasmussen)
Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, Romney 43% (Philadelphia Inquirer)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Gravis)
Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Washington Post)
Meanwhile, Minnesota is not generally seen as a swing state but Mitt Romney is currently running ads in the state.
Minnesota: Obama 53%, Romney 45% (St. Cloud University)
Ohio Is Not a Toss Up
Nate Silver looks at the polling average in Ohio — made up of roughly a dozen polling firms who have surveyed the state over the past 10 days — and notes it shows President Obama with a 2.4 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.
“There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich… It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“This isn’t the politically correct thing to say, but when we drove the mother out of the home into the workplace and replaced her with the television set, that was not a good thing.”
— Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD), quoted by the Washington Post.
Can the Stock Market Predict the Election?
The New York Times ranks the 28 presidential terms since 1900 on the performance of the Dow Jones industrial average — the only major stock index with a history that long — during each presidential term, and on what happened in the election that followed it.
“When the Dow has risen more than 5 percent a year, the incumbent party has retained the White House in 11 elections and lost it in only three elections. When the market fell, or rose at a rate slower than 5 percent, the incumbent party has lost the White House in eight of 13 elections.”
Adelson Has Donated $54 Million This Election Cycle
Sheldon Adelson, “among those whose contributions are disclosed, is far and away the largest donor to independent political efforts in both the 2012 election and in any single election in modern history,” the Huffington Post reports.
“The casino billionaire, along with members of his family, has given $54.44 million to super PACs to help elect a variety of Republican candidates, from Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney on down to a House of Representatives race in New Jersey.”
Poll Finds Americans Slightly More Racist
A new AP Poll finds racial attitudes have not improved in the four years since President Obama’s election “as a slight majority of Americans now express prejudice toward blacks whether they recognize those feelings or not.”
“In all, 51 percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56 percent, up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.”
Andrew Sullivan: “Close to 80 percent of Republican voters expressed ‘explicit racism.’ Maybe that’s why they are comfortable with a candidate from a church whose theology remains based on white supremacy and that barred African-Americans from full membership as recently as 1978.”
Quote of the Day
“They’re the ideas of countries people come here to get away from.”
— Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), characterizing President Obama’s plans for a second term at a rally introducing Mitt Romney.
Three Ways the Election Might Not End
David Frum looks at the possibility of recounts, provisional ballots, and a potential electoral college tie: “Please, God, no.”
Polling Averages Show Obama Near Victory
Greg Sargent runs through the latest polling averages and finds President Obama leading in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa while Mitt Romney leads in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. The race is essentially tied in Colorado and New Hampshire.
“For the sake of argument, let’s give the tied states to Romney. Here’s the basic state of things: If you give Romney all the states where he is leading or tied in the averages — Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire — he is still short of 270. Meanwhile, if you give Obama just the states where he leads in the averages, he wins reelection.”
The Week looks at whether Romney’s “momentum” is actually an illusion conjured by his campaign.
The Obama Haters Book Club
John Avlon compiles a list of 89 anti-Obama books that make outrageous and false claims about the president.
“We will look back on birtherism and some of the other strange conspiracy theories that have clustered around him as, at the very least, vestigial remnants of racism. The sheer tonnage of hate and lies directed his way in the White House is stunning and it will seem somewhere between stupid, silly, and sad in the future.”
Akin Unveils New Attack Ad
With a new poll showing him just two points behind in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race, Rep. Todd Akin (R) released a blistering new ad accusing Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) of corruption.
Swing State Math Still Tough for Romney
While President Obama’s average lead in Ohio is just 2.3 points, Mitt Romney doesn’t lead in a single poll. In Nevada, Obama’s edge is 2.5 points and Romney has led in just one poll this entire year. In Wisconsin, Romney trails by just 2.3 points but hasn’t led in a single poll since August.
Harry Enten notes that “in only one in 150 of the state contests in the last three presidential elections was there an instance of a candidate winning a state where he didn’t hold the edge in at least a single poll in the closing weeks of the campaign.”
Obama Ad Compares Voting to Sex
Super PAC Stops Support of Walsh
The conservative Super PAC that had already plowed $2 million into Rep. Joe Walsh’s (R-IL) re-election race and had threatened to put in an additional $2.5 million to “bury” Tammy Duckworth (D), is now putting its money elsewhere, the Chicago Sun Times reports.
“The decision comes a week after Walsh, already a flame thrower, made national headlines by declaring that abortion was never necessary to save the life of a mother. In an atypical move, he held a news conference the next day to clarify his remarks.”
A new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll finds Duckworth leading by 10 points, 50% to 40%.
