New York Times: “One question that grows with each dollar spent is whether voters are being swayed anymore, especially when many say the ads they see now are merely noise canceling out more noise.”

“Scholars who have looked at the impact of campaign ads have found that for races like those for House seats in which name recognition often makes all the difference, ads do matter. But for presidential candidates, the case is not as strong. And this record-breaking year, ironically enough, may provide the most convincing argument yet that all the advertising that money can buy ultimately has little impact.”

The U.S. Supreme Court is siding with Democrats in refusing to block early voting in the battleground state of Ohio, the AP reports.

SCOTUSblog: “The ruling was a significant victory for President Obama and for
Democrats, especially since they claimed that the shuttering of voting
offices on the Saturday, Sunday and Monday before election day would be
likely to affect low income and minority voters — many of whom may be
expected to vote Democratic.”

Rick Hasen: “This is quite a run in the courts for those fighting Republican legislative cutbacks on voting rights, at least in 2012.  And in that respect I have been surprised.”

“People say the reason Obama wouldn’t call Clinton is because he doesn’t like him. The truth is, Obama doesn’t call anyone, and he’s not close to almost anyone. It’s stunning that he’s in politics, because he really doesn’t like people.”

— Former Obama aide Neera Tanden, quoted by New York Magazine.

Michael Tomasky digs up a one-minute clip of FDR speaking in 1936.

Jonathan Chait: “President Obama’s first debate was disastrous in two distinct ways. He appeared listless and professorial, unable to boil down his beliefs into crisp statements, and generally looked far less like a president than did Romney — forceful, poised, firing off bullet points with measured assurance. On top of that, he allowed Romney to execute, in the course of 90 minutes, the sort of ideological repositioning he usually requires months or even years to pull off, defining himself to middle America as a health-care-loving, tax-cut-for-the-rich-abhorring, anti-Wall Street Massachusetts moderate.”

“Obama’s dilemma in his second debate is that he can fix the first problem a lot more easily than the second.”

Howard Kurtz: “Obama may improve and even beat the media’s expectations. But there’s no
way he can clobber Romney without committing more personal fouls than a
president is allowed in a general election.”

President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will both cast their ballots for the 2012 election early, ABC News reports.

The announcement means Obama will become the first presidential candidate to not vote in-person on election day.

Daily Beast: Early voting changes the presidential landscape.

Despite recent polls showing close races in Pennsylvania and Michigan, a top Romney adviser tells Politico he doesn’t expect the campaign to focus on them this late in the game.

Said the adviser: “I won’t blow smoke at you with Pennsylvania and Michigan, even though there are polls showing that they’re in sight. I absolutely believe they’re close. It’s just, to go in, to move three points in Pennsylvania is different than moving three points in New Hampshire.”

Mitt Romney’s joint fundraising committee that has raised the lion’s share of the cash credited to his campaign, revealed last night “that it had transferred $44 million to the GOP’s national congressional committees and the state parties in Idaho, Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Vermont,” Politico reports.

“The party committees – none of them in swing states – have wide latitude in how and where they choose to spend the Romney Victory cash. They are all controlled by Romney allies, and the funds will most likely be used for get-out-the-vote operations, but the recipient state party committees could technically spend it on TV ads or any other expense related to any federal election, and the congressional committees can’t directly coordinate their spending with Romney.”

The DNC launches RomneyTaxPlan.com.

First Read: “It was less than two weeks ago when, before the first presidential debate in Denver, we wrote that Mitt Romney was facing a crucial moment in his campaign. It was coming right after President Obama’s convention bounce, the scrutiny over the 47% comment, and all the handwringing over the state of the Romney campaign. How quickly the narrative can change. Now it’s Obama facing a crucial moment — to fully turn the page on that first debate performance. The president isn’t behind, and he still holds more paths to 270 electoral votes. But he needs to stop Romney’s momentum and get it back on his side. Our bottom line: Tonight is all about suburban women; it has been Obama’s demographic firewall. Romney has made progress with them on his fav rating and on handling the economy, but not on ballot test. Tonight will tell us whether he continues to make progress.”

Boston Globe:
“With Super Bowl-size audiences tuning into what has become
a weekly political miniseries, President Obama cannot afford another
performance like the one he had in Denver — where even supporters said
he was lackluster and timid.”

A new Daily Kos/SEIU/Public Policy Polling survey shows Mitt Romney jumping to a four point lead over President Obama nationally among likely voters, 50% to 46%.

Romney also leads in the swing states, 50% to 47%.

The Gallup tracking poll also shows Romney leading 50% to 46%.

Ross Perot endorses Mitt Romney in a Des Moines Register op-ed:

“These are leadership qualities that are sorely needed in Washington
today. President Obama promised a great deal. He has had his chance. The
results are visible for all to see. It is time for a new beginning. It
is time for Mitt Romney.”

First Read: “Yes, this is one rich man endorsing another rich man. And Perot’s
politics have always been Republican leaning. But the issue Perot is
best known for — the deficit — is something that potentially plays
well in Iowa, with older voters who remember who Perot is. And so the
endorsement carries symbolic importance.”

It’s worth noting that just two weeks ago Perot said he would not make an endorsement.

The Obama campaign turns to Bill Clinton once again with a new video explaining how Mitt Romney’s tax plan doesn’t add up.

[Read more…]

A Center for Rural Strategies poll in 9 swing states finds Mitt Romney crushing President Obama among rural voters, 59% to 37%, a plunge of 10 points from the actual rural vote in those states four years ago.

Last month, a similar rural survey in the same battleground states had a smaller 51% to 38% margin for Romney.

Mark Halperin: “Here’s why some Democrats are worried tonight. If Romney wins the three Southern battlegrounds (FL, NC, and VA) and OH, he is at 266 electoral votes. Leaving the other five battlegrounds unallocated, that means Obama would be at 237 and Romney would only need to win one of the remaining five states to get to 270+. See the map above.”

“One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).”

Meanwhile, Harry Enten explores Romney’s possible, but more complicated, routes to victory.

The New York Times Magazine has a must-read profile of Paul Ryan and his quick rise through Republicans ranks.

“Ryan is gifted at shrouding a cutthroat ambition in sheepish nonchalance. It is a key political still — trying constantly to impress without looking as if you’re trying — and one that has eluded many politicians past and present. He is also deft at conveying precision and specificity without being the least bit precise or specific. He has honed his image carefully and promotes it relentlessly on the stump.”