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A new Gallup report details the reasons why the polling firm believes that its polls failed to predict President Obama’s victory in the November election, National Journal reports.
The Hill: “Gallup has partnered with the University of Michigan for a top-to-bottom review of its operations. In a written post-mortem, the pollster said it’s not averse to making “major revisions or even a replacement model” if needed to produce more accurate data.”
Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) toast at former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s 90th birthday party “had the room buzzing,” the Daily Beast reports.
“McCain, shot down as a bomber pilot over North Vietnam on October 26, 1967, was brutally treated by his captors. He was tortured, beaten incessantly, his arms rebroken in the notorious Hanoi Hilton. Part of the McCain legend has always been how he declined an offer of early release rather than jump ahead of his fellow prisoners on account of his father’s impending promotion to admiral in charge of the U.S. Pacific fleet. On Monday night, for the first time, he told of a role played by Henry Kissinger.”
Bloomberg points out that in a few state legislators, “those that are deeply Republican-red or Democratic-blue, the partisan hue is so one-sided that it’s creating super-minorities in some Senate chambers.”
“Members of these tiny caucuses say they still can influence debate, are included in bipartisan legislative deliberations and can attract attention while being outnumbered. The upshot: state legislatures often aren’t the partisan combat zone that Congress has become, and their lawmakers find ways to work cooperatively on issues, an environment presidents can only envy.”
Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant (R) said that America’s educational troubles began when women began working outside the home in large numbers, the Washington Post reports.
In response to a question about how America became “so mediocre” in regard to educational outcomes, he said: “I think both parents started working. The mom got in the work place.”
President Obama on will nominate a slate of judges today to the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, “an aggressive move that is likely to spark swift resistance from Senate Republicans who say the court is underworked and does not need additional judges,” Roll Call reports.
The move “sends a strong message that he intends to push for the nominees in a way that he has not lobbied for his other lower-court choices. Obama has never appeared alongside a judicial nominee other than for the Supreme Court, according to advocates.”
First Read: “What’s interesting about the likely quick special election is that it doesn’t preclude the 2014 race — that is, you’ll have a special Senate election this year and then another race for the seat in 2014. But this also means that Newark Mayor Cory Booker, who’s widely assumed to jump into this special election, would probably face a primary fight now from Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ).Why? Well, Pallone can run for the Senate seat in 2013 without risking his House seat. So it’s a free shot for the Democratic congressman.”
“Of course, the state party could decide against holding a party primary and choose the nominee at a convention of sorts. There will be national pressure on New Jersey Democrats to rally around Booker, whether Pallone likes that or not.”
Some of President Obama’s political appointees “are using secret government email accounts they say are necessary to prevent their inboxes from being overwhelmed with unwanted messages,” the AP reports.
“The scope of using the secret accounts across government remains a mystery: Most U.S. agencies have failed to turn over lists of political appointees’ email addresses, which the AP sought under the Freedom of Information Act more than three months ago. The Labor Department initially asked the AP to pay more than $1 million for its email addresses.”
Ron Fournier: “In a reminder of how the GOP overreached during the Clinton-era sex scandal, Issa doesn’t seem capable of letting damning facts speak for themselves. … Note what Issa is doing. He does it all the time–start an unsubstantiated allegation with an absolute declaration (‘when in fact’) and follow it with weasel words (‘the indication is’). This smear-and-caveat technique allows him to ruin reputations without being called a liar. Issa is a demagogue with plausible deniability.”
“Do you hear history’s echo? Sen. Joe McCarthy paved his way to infamy with 205 names… He might also want to realize that the president is swamped in self-inflicted controversies that raise questions of West
Wing competence, if not corruption. We will soon know whether the IRS’s targeting involved officials at the White House or President Obama’s reelection campaign. The flames don’t need Issa’s toxic fuel.”
Politico: “Scarred by years of Republican attacks over Obamacare, with more in store next year, Democrats have settled on an unlikely strategy for the 2014 midterms: Bring it on.”
“Party strategists believe that embracing the polarizing law — especially its more popular elements — is smarter politics than fleeing from it in the House elections. The new tack is a marked shift from 2010, when Republicans pointed to Obamacare as Exhibit A of Big Government run amok on their way to seizing the House from Democrats.”
The Washington Post has a fascinating piece on the House GOP breaking into factions after the fiscal cliff vote and how Speaker John Boehner ultimately held onto his job.
“Barely 36 hours after the caustic New Year’s Day vote, Boehner faced a coup attempt from a clutch of renegade conservatives. The cabal quickly fell apart when several Republicans, after a night of prayer, said God told them to spare the speaker. Still, Boehner came within a few votes of failing to secure his speakership on the initial vote, an outcome that would have forced a second ballot for the first time in nearly a century.”
Retired Navy SEAL Kristin Beck has written a memoir called Warrior Princess describing her 20-year military career and and her experience coming out as transgender. Beck previously went by the name Chris but underwent hormonal therapy after leaving the military.
Terry McAuliffe (D) has a nearly 2-to-1 edge in campaign cash on hand at the end of May over rival Ken Cuccinelli (R) in their head-to-head sprint to November’s bellwether gubernatorial election in swing state Virginia, the AP reports.
New Jersey State Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D) said the special election to fill Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s (D-NJ) seat should be held in November, at the same time voters cast ballots for governor, the Newark Star Ledger reports.
He “acknowledged there is some conflict between state laws governing how senate seats are filled before a term expires, but the governor must defer to giving voters the option at the earliest moment.”
Said Sweeney: “It needs to be happen in November. I know there is some conflicting information, but you cannot disenfranchise voters for 17 or 18 months.”
If Christie ignores his advice, Sweeney said, “We’ll take it to court.”
The Week: Christie faces a huge decision.
“Of course, the enemies list out of the White House that IRS was engaged in shutting down or trying to shut down the conservative political viewpoint across the country — an enemies list that rivals that of another president some time ago.”
— Rep. Hal Rodgers (R-KY), quoted by the Washington Post.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is so eager to avoid appearing on the same ballot as Cory Booker (D) that he is considering two alternatives to a November election for Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s (D-NJ) successor, the New York Times reports.
“The option that is being pushed by many in Mr. Christie’s own party would be to name a Republican to hold the seat and then delay an election on a replacement until 2014. This would give his national party an unexpected gift: a reliable vote in the Senate — for a year and a half, at least — from a state that has not elected a Republican to the upper house in 41 years. But it would also open Mr. Christie up to allegations of sidestepping the electoral process.”
“The alternative, lawyers in both parties said, would be for Mr. Christie to set a primary election as early as August, which would mean a special election in October. This would leave Democrats in a stronger position to win the seat. Mr. Booker, in particular, benefits from a high national profile and strong fund-raising, though he would be quite likely to face a primary challenge. But it would also open Mr. Christie to accusations that he was wasting some $24 million in taxpayer money by holding those two extra elections ahead of the regular November balloting for self-interested political reasons.”
Nate Silver: “If Mr. Christie wants to maximize the G.O.P.’s chances of holding on to the seat, the path is fairly straightforward. He would want to appoint a moderate Republican who had held a prominent elected office before, who could raise money quickly and who could scale up to the effort that a statewide campaign would require.”
“Mr. Christie might have decent choices from New Jersey’s list of current United States representatives. Six of the state’s 12 representatives are Republicans, and most of those Republicans are quite moderate… In particular, Mr. Christie could appoint one of the two Republican representatives — Frank LoBiondo of the Second Congressional District and Jon Runyan of the Third — who won re-election last year in districts carried by President Obama.”
John Avlon looks at five possible Christie picks.
Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) announced that she will undergo treatment for lung cancer, Newsday reports.
The Washington Post reports that the vote to avert the fiscal cliff on New Years Day “marked a breaking point for House Republicans, who had disintegrated into squabbling factions, no longer able to agree on — much less execute — some of the most basic government functions.”
“Ever since, Boehner has cautiously tried to steer his party away from that bitter moment, with varying success. A short-term strategy, which conservatives called ‘the Williamsburg Accord,’ emerged from a bruising mid-January retreat. It restored enough unity to permit the House to dodge a government shutdown, badger the Senate into passing its first budget in four years and open investigations of the Obama White House.”
“But beyond those limited efforts, the House has not approved ambitious
legislation this year. Lawmakers have instead focused on trying to
re-brand the party around kitchen-table issues — although even some of
those bills have run into trouble. And the most momentous policy
decisions, including an immigration overhaul and a fresh deadline for
raising the federal debt limit, have no coherent strategy to consolidate
Republicans, much less take on the Democrats.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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