“Donald Trump returned to the key battleground state of North Carolina for a rally Saturday, but declined to mention Mark Robinson — his party’s nominee for governor in the state,” ABC News reports.
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Kamala Harris to Skip Al Smith Dinner
“Vice President Kamala Harris will not attend next month’s Al Smith charity dinner in New York City, her campaign has told organizers, opting instead to stump in a battleground state on October 17, less than three weeks before the election,” CNN reports.
“The historic Catholic fundraiser traditionally features light roasts by the two major-party nominees – aimed at one another and others – in presidential election years…”
“Donald Trump stunned attendees in 2016 when he abandoned the collegial banter and launched a series of personal attacks on Hillary Clinton, who in her own remarks had offered the expected round of self-deprecating humor.”
Senate Control Hinges on the ‘Last Democrat’
Wall Street Journal: “Tester, known for his signature flat-top haircut and three missing fingers—he lost them in a meat grinder when he was 9 years old—is the most vulnerable senator up for re-election. If he goes down in this red-leaning state, so does the Democrats’ Senate majority. They currently have a 51-49 margin but are sure to lose a seat in deeper-red West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring.”
“A loss by Tester would give Republicans a stronger hand in rewriting the tax code for millions of American households and businesses in 2025. The party that controls the Senate confirms Supreme Court appointments and can approve—or block—cabinet picks.”
“That is why this race is attracting tens of millions of dollars in outside spending and campaign ads. But for voters here, there is something more personal gnawing at them. The country is changing. Montana is changing. Has Tester changed too?”
Liz Cheney Suggests New Political Party May Be Needed
Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) suggested that a new political party might need to be created to replace the Republican Party if he is defeated, the New York Times reports.
Said Cheney: “Whether it’s organizing a new party — look, it’s hard for me to see how the Republican Party, given what it has done, can make the argument convincingly or credibly that people ought to vote for Republican candidates until it really recognizes what it’s done.”
She added: “There is certainly going to be a big shift, I think, in how our politics work. I don’t know exactly what that will look like. I don’t think it will just simply be, well, the Republican Party is going to put up a new slate of candidates and off to the races. I think far too much has happened that’s too damaging.”
Everything Points to a Very Close Election
Nate Silver: “In 16 years of running election forecasts, I’ve never seen such a close election.”
“Our polling averages in seven swing states — in alphabetical order: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are within 2 percentage points. A systematic polling error, or a shift in the race in the final six weeks of the campaign, could result in one candidate sweeping all of these states. In our simulations this morning, Kamala Harris swept all seven of these battlegrounds 20 percent of the time, and Donald Trump did in 23 percent of the simulations.”
“But that leaves a majority of cases where the election will probably be close, and it’s worth sorting through the electoral math in case it is.”
Harris Campaign Lays Out Its Mark Robinson Strategy
“Kamala Harris’ campaign advisers say the ongoing Mark Robinson scandal in North Carolina has given them a fresh opening with the state’s Black and suburban voters, as they continue to try to tie Donald Trump to the embattled candidate for governor,” Politico reports.
“The plan, Harris advisers outlined in a memo… involves seizing on the current barrage of negative attention on Robinson and putting resources behind targeting suburban voters in the Charlotte and Raleigh areas, moderate Republicans and Black voters in the critical battleground state.”
“Their messaging will focus not on a CNN report about comments Robinson made on a pornographic website — including that he enjoys ‘watching tranny on girl porn,’ and instead will emphasize the controversial candidate’s ties to Trump and his ‘extreme’ policy positions.”
Harris Challenges Trump to Another Debate
“Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday accepted an invitation from CNN to debate former President Donald Trump on October 23, challenging her rival to another engagement on a public stage in the final weeks of the campaign,” CNN reports.
Said Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon: “Trump should have no problem agreeing to this debate. It is the same format and setup as the CNN debate he attended and said he won in June.”
Trump’s Self-Restraint Disappears
“Donald Trump’s top advisers have insisted for months that his 2024 bid for the presidency is the most disciplined campaign he has ever run. They pointed to fewer leaks, less infighting and a more deliberate strategy honed by seasoned professionals and driven by data,” the Washington Post reports.
“But with just 45 days left until the election, the past three weeks reveal whatever control and self-restraint helped launch Trump’s third presidential campaign has largely disappeared in the crucial final stretch.”
Senate Democrats Push Leaders to Expand Map
“Tired of playing only defense, a small but vocal number of Senate Democrats are pushing party leaders and political operatives to pour money into trying to knock off GOP incumbents in races most view as long shots for Democrats,” the Washington Post reports.
“They fear Democrats are leaving potential pickups on the table, particularly in Florida and Texas, where unpopular incumbents, Sens. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, have not seen anything resembling the financial onslaught faced by GOP candidates in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Arizona.”
Trump Is Now Hawking Silver Coins
With just 45 days until the election, Donald Trump is selling $100 “Official Trump Coins” to his fans in a new video.
Nearly 100,000 to Get Full Ballot Access in Arizona
“The Arizona Supreme Court ruled Friday that roughly 98,000 Arizonans whose voter registration status was in limbo will be able to participate in the full ballot in November,” NBC News reports.
“The uncertainty regarding the voters’ fate came after the Maricopa County Recorder’s office discovered a clerical error from 2004 that granted the nearly 100,000 Arizonans voting registration status despite not providing documented proof of citizenship.”
Hopes Sputter as Pager Attacks Bring Mideast to Brink
“Secretary of State Antony Blinken flew to the Middle East this week with little illusion that his 10th trip to the region since last Oct. 7 would lead to a breakthrough in the Gaza war,” Bloomberg reports.
“And that was before thousands of near-simultaneous explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to members of the Hezbollah militia spread havoc in Lebanon. On Friday, Israel said it had killed another of the Iran-backed organization’s leaders in a strike that left a dozen people dead, leaving little hope for a cease-fire in Gaza.”
“For months, Blinken has embodied the Biden administration’s struggle to end the conflict that erupted after Hamas’s assault on Israel last fall: shuttling to the region, pressing both sides and assuring the world a deal is just within reach.”
Trump’s Nemesis Returns to Protect the Vote in Georgia
“Brad Raffensperger is all too familiar with attempts to subvert U.S. democracy,” the Financial Times reports.
“The Secretary of State for Georgia was on the receiving end of the infamous Donald Trump phone call after the 2020 election, when the then-president urged his fellow Republican to ‘find’ the 11,780 votes he needed to win the state. Raffensperger refused and death threats ensued.”
“Almost four years on from the unrest that followed the last presidential election, Raffensperger is again in the crosshairs of the Trump faithful, as he battles a MAGA-friendly majority on the swing state’s election board who passed last-minute laws that critics claim will pave the way for post-election legal chaos, if not violent unrest.”
Said Raffensperger: “There are a lot of bad actors out there.”
Why Forecast Models Aren’t Any Better Than Polls
Natalie Jackson: “Forecasts based on polls and election ‘fundamentals,’ like what FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Nate Silver produce, are more intriguing from an empirical standpoint. The statistical machinations are genuinely challenging and interesting to work on: combining national and state-level polls, economic factors, incumbency factors, and vote history, and then spinning it all up into a state-by-state prediction that can be used to simulate presidential elections. We’re talking thousands and thousands of lines of code.”
“Sounds pretty empirical, right? It is, in the sense that you build a big model that takes in a ton of data and puts out a ton of data. But every decision about what goes into the model is subjective: The modeler decides what polls are used, whether they are adjusted for the quality or past accuracy of the pollster, how much any individual poll is able to move the trend, which economic indicators to use, which political factors are important, and how all those are coded in. Make a different decision at any step, and you change the model’s predictions…”
“We can calculate probabilities all day long, but we have no idea what their accuracy is. Polls have margins of error, plus additional error. Models have error of their own. Judgment calls made by those constructing the models have error. We don’t know how big all of that cumulative error is.”
How Trump Demanded Investigations of His Foes
New York Times: “A look back at the cases of 10 individuals brings a pattern into clearer focus: After Mr. Trump made repeated public or private demands for them to be targeted by the government, they faced federal pressure of one kind or another.”
“The broad outlines of those episodes have been previously reported. But a closer examination reveals the degree of concern and pushback against Mr. Trump’s demands inside the White House.”
“And it highlights how closely his expressed desires to go after people who had drawn his ire were sometimes followed by the Justice Department, F.B.I. or other agencies. Even without his direct order, his indirect influence could serve his ends and leave those in his sights facing expensive, time-consuming legal proceedings or other high-stress inquiries.”
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A Dramatic Rise in Pregnant Women Dying in Texas
“The number of women in Texas who died while pregnant, during labor or soon after childbirth skyrocketed following the state’s 2021 ban on abortion care — far outpacing a slower rise in maternal mortality across the nation,” NBC News reports.
“From 2019 to 2022, the rate of maternal mortality cases in Texas rose by 56%, compared with just 11% nationwide during the same time period.”
Why Trump’s Vow to Lower Grocery Costs Will Backfire
“Donald Trump’s vow to lower food prices clashes with his love of tariffs and desire to deport migrant workers with economists warning those steps would drive up consumer prices at a time inflation is finally cooling,” Axios reports.
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