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Harris Got a Very Small Debate Bounce

September 23, 2024 at 7:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “It’s been nearly two weeks since the first presidential debate, and the polls have reached their verdict on the fallout: The race remains very close.”

“On average, Kamala Harris is faring about one point better across 34 polls that measured the race before and after the debate. It leaves the contest deadlocked, with neither candidate enjoying a meaningful advantage in the key states.”

“By the usual measures, this is a small post-debate bounce. In fact, it is the smallest bounce for the perceived consensus winner of the first presidential debate so far this century.”

Democrats Are Outspending Republicans Nationwide

September 23, 2024 at 7:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democrats are outspending Republicans on political ads by about a half-billion dollars since Aug. 1,” Axios reports.

Bloomberg: “An influx of Wall Street and Silicon Valley donor support for Kamala Harris is translating into a distinct campaign advantage to the tune of nearly $5 million a day, allowing her to go on offense against Republican Donald Trump.”

Trump Shows Signs of Strength in the Sun Belt

September 23, 2024 at 6:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new series of New York Times/Siena polls of likely voters:

  • Arizona: Trump 50%, Harris 45%
  • Georgia: Trump 49%, Harris 45%
  • North Carolina: Trump 49%, Harris 47%

“But in one sign of how these contests remain up for grabs, about 15 percent of the electorate in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina described themselves as undecided or not definitely decided, leaving open the possibility that they could still change their minds.”

Nate Cohn: “In one sense, the finding is very clear: It’s a good set of numbers for Mr. Trump. It’s not necessarily an exceptional one, as Ms. Harris’s easiest path to victory lies in the Northern battlegrounds. But Mr. Trump’s path to victory begins in the Sun Belt; if he wins these three states, he wouldn’t need many more.”


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Zelensky Hits the U.S. Campaign Trail

September 23, 2024 at 6:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It’s a telling sign of the state of global affairs that Volodymyr Zelensky’s first stop on his US visit was in the swingiest of swing states in the presidential election: Pennsylvania,” Bloomberg reports.

“The visit was to an ammunition factory, one of the few in the country making the kind of artillery shells that Ukraine is running low on in its fight against Russia. What’s more it’s in Scranton, President Joe Biden’s home town and a symbol for the disaffected voter in the Rust Belt that will decide who wins.”

“Pennsylvania also happens to be home to one of the largest Ukrainian American populations in the US.”

Axios: Zelensky arrives in U.S. ahead of presenting Biden with “victory plan.”

Harris Raises $27 Million at New York City Fundraiser

September 22, 2024 at 11:06 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Vice President Kamala Harris raised $27 million at a packed New York City fundraiser on Sunday, her largest fundraising haul since she took over at the top of the ticket from President Joe Biden,” the AP reports.

Harris said she would deliver a speech Wednesday outlining her economic vision, saying there is “more we can do to invest in the aspirations and ambitions of the American people while addressing the challenges they face.”

Mark Robinson Staffers Resign en Masse

September 22, 2024 at 8:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Several top staffers and fundraisers for Mark Robinson’s gubernatorial campaign have quit,“ WRAL reports.

“The North Carolina Republican Party nominee for governor is facing increased pressure and skepticism from members of his party after a recent report by CNN alleging that he made lewd, racist and pro-Hitler comments on a pornographic website’s messaging board.”

Raleigh News and Observer: Mark Robinson’s top campaign staff in NC governor’s race resign in wake of scandal.

Mike Johnson Rolls Out Plan B to Avert Shutdown

September 22, 2024 at 5:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“House GOP leaders on Sunday unveiled a plan to keep the government funded for three months after Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) opening gambit to avoid a shutdown failed due to opposition from Republicans,” The Hill reports.

“The continuing resolution (CR), which was the result of bipartisan negotiations in the House and Senate, would keep the government funded at current levels through Dec. 20 — setting up a holiday funding fight.”

Harris Again Urges Trump to Debate

September 22, 2024 at 5:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kamala Harris repeated her call for Donald Trump to accept an invitation from CNN for a second debate, the New York Times reports.

Said Harris: “He should accept. I feel very strongly that we owe it to the American people and to the voters to meet once more before Election Day and continue the conversation.”

Some Palm Beach Ballots Misspelled Tim Walz’s Name

September 22, 2024 at 5:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“When elections officials in Palm Beach County, Fla., emailed ballots last week to military and overseas voters, they failed to notice a typographical error: The name of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, the Democratic nominee for vice president, was misspelled as ‘Tom Walz,’” the New York Times reports.

J.D. Vance Embraces Conspiracy Theories

September 22, 2024 at 4:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“J.D. Vance not long ago described conspiracy theories as the feverish imaginings produced by ‘fringe lunatics writing about all manner of idiocy,’” the AP reports.

“That was before he became a rising star in Republican politics.”

“The Ohio senator and GOP’s vice presidential nominee has in recent years declared that the federal government deliberately allowed fentanyl into the United States to kill conservative and rural voters. He has praised Alex Jones, a well-known conspiracy theorist who claimed the deaths of 20 young children in the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting was a hoax.”

Controversies Erupt as Trump Makes Critical Push

September 22, 2024 at 2:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Even by the standards of a head-spinning presidential campaign, Donald Trump’s campaign over the past two weeks has been tumultuous,” the New York Times reports.

“A period that began when Mr. Trump pushed baseless claims from the debate stage that immigrants in Ohio were stealing and eating household pets ended with him facing attacks over his support of the Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina, who referred to himself as a ‘black Nazi’ on the message board of a pornographic website…”

“While Vice President Kamala Harris crisscrosses the battleground states pressing her message about Mr. Trump being a danger to abortion rights, democracy and the country’s future, Republicans have been re-immersed in the kind of drama that has defined the former president’s political brand for more than a decade.”

Republicans See Little Evidence of Trump’s Ground Game

September 22, 2024 at 2:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republican activists in swing states say they have seen little sign of the teams tasked with knocking on doors and turning out infrequent voters on behalf of Donald Trump, raising concerns about the party’s presidential nominee relying on outside groups for an important part of his campaign operations,” the AP reports.

“Trump and the Republican National Committee he controls opted to share get-out-the-vote duties in key parts of the most competitive states this year with groups such as America PAC, the organization supported by billionaire Elon Musk.”

“It is difficult to demonstrate that something is not happening. But with fewer than 50 days until the Nov. 5 election, dozens of Republican officials, activists and operatives in Michigan, North Carolina and other battleground states say they have rarely or never witnessed the group’s canvassers.”

Trump Supporters Shrug Off Mark Robinson Scandal

September 22, 2024 at 2:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The scandal engulfing Mark Robinson’s campaign for North Carolina governor seems career-ending to many in politics. At Donald Trump’s rally here this weekend, however, plenty of people weren’t bothered,” the Washington Post reports.

“So what if Robinson, the Republican nominee for governor, is linked to a porn site user who once argued for the reinstatement of slavery, detailed an affair with his wife’s sister, called himself a ‘black NAZI’ and praised Adolf Hitler’s book ‘Mein Kampf’ as ‘a good read’?”

Axios: Democrats see path to North Carolina victory following Robinson bombshell.

Trump Says He Won’t Run Again If He Loses

September 22, 2024 at 2:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump said in an interview aired Sunday that he doesn’t think he will run again in 2028 if he loses the presidency in November,” Axios reports.

Said Trump: “No, I don’t. I think… that will be it. I don’t see that at all.”

Republicans Boost Jill Stein as Potential Harris Spoiler

September 22, 2024 at 12:40 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Some Republicans are supporting Green Party candidate Jill Stein’s long-shot bid for the presidency, attempting to bolster a campaign that could siphon liberal voters from Vice President Kamala Harris,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The support, including from allies of former President Donald Trump, has Democrats worried Stein will be a spoiler for Harris in places such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Stein is very unlikely to win any of them or reach the White House, but the Democrat’s path to victory is greatly diminished if Harris loses any of the three, where she is locked in a tight race with Trump.”

Trump Acts as if He Has Time to Waste

September 22, 2024 at 11:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Karl Rove: “Every presidential campaign wrestles with how to use its three biggest resources—money, issues and time. The last is the most precious. Campaigns can always raise more money or generate more issues. But they can never create more time.”

“This is why Kamala Harris’s campaign wisely isn’t responding to many of Donald Trump’s attacks. The Republican, unfortunately, has been wasting precious time going after her on inconsequential matters. The Biden-Harris record on inflation, the border and world events remains relatively unmentioned. He’s letting her skate.”

Congress Prepares Short Term Funding Bill

September 22, 2024 at 10:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The short-term government funding bill that Congress will attempt to pass this week will keep federal agencies open until Dec. 20, Punchbowl News reports.

House and Senate leadership expect to release the bill text at some point this afternoon.

The Dec. 20 expiration date could set Congress up for a high-stakes lame-duck session of governing.

Harris and Trump in Talks with ‘60 Minutes’

September 22, 2024 at 9:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are both considering “60 Minutes” interviews that would air back-to-back on Oct. 7 as a campaign grand finale, Axios reports.

“With Trump ruling out a second debate with Harris, the CBS News juggernaut — which remains the nation’s top-rated news show, drawing 11 million viewers last week for its 57th-season premiere — would give the campaigns one last mass audience, 29 days before Election Day.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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