Political Wire

What Could Happen if Democrats Win in November

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Wall Street Journal: “Investigations (congressional ones) will happen on a scale that Washington hasn’t seen in a long time. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said that there would be an immediate focus on ‘corruption.’ Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT) could chair the intelligence committee and has said that he might look into ‘nakedly corrupt dealings’ between the Trump administration and companies.”

“This could all be a double-edged sword for Democrats, though. Will voters want them to spend the run-up to the 2028 presidential election going after President Trump, or coming up with a plan for the future?”

Democratic Whip Plans Cross-Country Midterm Sprint

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Semafor: “Next month, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark is planning a whirlwind tour of districts in California, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Florida, Massachusetts, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania, according to a spokesperson, a sprint that will bring her stops to 24 congressional districts since August and 48 events.”

“Her travel plans — which at points include multiple districts in a single day — will incorporate all of the female frontline Democratic lawmakers and ‘red to blue’ candidates looking to flip seats.”

Inside Thune and Barrasso’s Midterm Campaigning Plans

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“Senate Majority Leader John Thune and GOP Whip John Barrasso are preparing to hit the campaign trail in October,” Politico reports.

“Thune is planning to swing through a number of states starting with North Carolina this week…He said he’ll also go to South Carolina, Florida, twice to Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota and Michigan, among others, as Republicans fight to keep control of the Senate in an increasingly difficult political environment for their party.”

“Barrasso, meanwhile, will travel to Ohio, Montana, Kansas and Kentucky next month… Barrasso has already been on the campaign trail in Iowa, Texas and South Carolina.”

Are the Polls Too Good to Be True?

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Dan Pfeiffer: “Midterm polls have tended to be more accurate than polls in presidential years. The polls were historically accurate in 2018 and 2022. I know everyone thinks the polls were wrong in 2022 because the Red Wave never materialized, but the polls were right. The final generic ballot average was Republican +2.5, and the result was Republican +2.7.”

“Midterm polls are more accurate because the electorate includes fewer of the less politically engaged voters who tend not to answer polls. In recent years, those voters have leaned heavily toward Trump. They were undersampled in 2016 and 2020, but because they turn out at lower rates in midterms, the polls tend to be more accurate.”

Jack Smith Will Appear Before Congress

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“Jack Smith, who as special counsel twice charged Donald J. Trump after his first term, is set to testify to Congress on Tuesday as Republicans vow to scrutinize his every word for possible prosecution,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Smith’s third appearance before lawmakers, this time in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is likely to be contentious.”

Trump Municipal Bond Portfolio Valued at Up to $1 Billion

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“President Trump’s municipal bond portfolio has grown to more than roughly 1,000 positions worth between $300 million and $1 billion,” CNBC reports.

“Some bonds are tied to cities, hospitals, schools, utilities and facilities affected by Trump administration policies, including coal plants granted pollution-rule exemptions, hospitals exposed to Medicaid changes and governments facing federal funding restrictions.”

News Organizations Seek Longer Ban Protection

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“Three news organizations that President Trump abruptly banished from White House grounds this month asked a federal court to block the ban until the case against it is resolved, saying the administration has ‘persisted in unpredictably and inconsistently implementing its ban’ despite a judge’s restraining order – including selectively barring CNN from White House pool duties,” CBS News reports.

Top Democrats Start to Fund James Talarico in Texas

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“Top national Democrats are preparing to make an initial investment in the Texas Senate race, a strategic shift that speaks to the party’s growing confidence in a state that has dashed its hopes for decades,” the New York Times reports.

“The main super PAC for Senate Democrats, Senate Majority PAC, said on Tuesday that it would begin an advertising effort meant to help James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, by targeting his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton.”

“The super PAC, which is aligned with Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader, had so far resisted spending money in Texas, viewing the party’s path to a majority as running through smaller states where advertising is cheaper.”

Midterm Pocketbook Pain Bites Trump

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“Five weeks before the midterms, Americans’ pocketbook pain is getting worse: paychecks haven’t kept up with inflation for the better part of this year, and borrowing costs have surged,” Axios reports.

“President Trump’s record is effectively on the ballot, and economic sentiment remains deeply depressed, including among Republican voters.”

Farm Crisis Fears Grip GOP in Iowa

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“Iowa is on the verge of a farm crisis that threatens to wreck the agricultural heart of the state and hurt the fortunes of Republicans at the top of the midterm ticket, GOP strategists acknowledge,” Axios reports.

“Democrats could win in several once-reliably Republican states in November, but President Trump’s policies have caused such severe financial problems for farmers — especially those who grow corn — that Iowa appears particularly vulnerable.”

How Trump’s Sweeping Changes Are Remaking Washington

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“President Donald Trump has focused on remaking Washington in his second term, from blades of grass on the White House lawn to new monuments around the city,” the Washington Post reports.

”He regularly directs the presidential helicopter to fly over his projects, surveying his changes from above.”

”No modern president has done more to personally reshape the nation’s capital. It’s an effort that Trump’s deputies and allies credit as a major achievement. Many others just want him to stop.”

Democratic Turnout Surged in the Primaries

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“From the first primaries in March through the final ones in September, Democrats’ turnout outpaced Republican voters in many key states that will decide congressional majorities next year,” the New York Times reports.

“In red states like Texas, battlegrounds like Georgia and bluer ones like New Hampshire, Democrats have raced to the polls to choose their nominees, while Republicans have not kept up.”

Republicans Scheme to Defy Trump On Spending

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“Lawmakers are fuming over President Donald Trump’s latest challenge to Congress’ funding power and already plotting to stop him in the future — a move that would require Republicans to buck their own party’s standard-bearer,” Politico reports.

CBS News: Trump cancels nearly $1 billion in spending, a move some lawmakers called illegal.

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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