“Something might be happening in Iowa,” Philip Elliot writes.

“Despite its reputation as a solidly Republican state, Iowa is increasingly coming up in conversations of Senate races to watch this year. And that glimmer of optimism is playing out in the fight for the Democratic nomination, which saw a significant shift Monday evening, with one of three contenders announcing he was stepping aside and endorsing state Rep. Josh Turek, a paralympian gold medalist and state lawmaker.”

Said Turek: “We’re seeing the field consolidate around the most electable candidate because I fundamentally believe that Iowa is in play far more than what people on the coast realize. I think we are going to be the center of the political universe here in 2026. There’s no other state where you’re looking at being able to flip three of the four congressional seats, flip the Senate seat, and flip this Governor’s race.”

President Trump endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-IA) seat, The Hill reports.

“The Senate Republican campaign arm sent a memo to donors touting Rep. Ashley Hinson’s potential strength in the Iowa Senate race, while stopping short of fully endorsing her to replace outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst,” NOTUS reports.

“Senate Democrats have been looking for ways to expand their difficult 2026 map to take back the majority, eyeing red states like Iowa and Alaska as potential places to do so.”

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) announced she will run for the U.S. Senate in 2026, becoming the first Iowa Republican to jump into the race after incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announced she would not seek reelection, the Des Moines Register reports.

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) is expected to announce next week that she will not seek reelection in 2026, CBS News reports.

NOTUS: “Had she run, she likely would have faced attacks from Democrats over her support for the Republican spending bill. In May, she delivered Democrats a potent talking point when she told voters, ‘We are all going to die,’ in response to a constituent’s question about people dying due to Medicaid cuts in the bill.”

A new poll by Public Policy Polling survey finds Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) struggling against the four Democrats running for Senate in head-to-head match ups.

Ernst leads Zach Wahls (D) by just one percentage point, 43% to 42%, tops Nathan Sage (D), 45% to 41%, beats Jackie Norris (D), 45% to 42%, and leads Josh Turek (D), 45% to 41%.

“A one-sentence gaffe from Iowa’s junior senator has become a line of attack against Republicans nationally, with Democratic fundraising solicitations, political ads, social media and T-shirts now highlighting her words heading into the midterm elections,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Sen. Joni Ernst’s response of ‘we all are going to die’ to a constituent who was complaining about proposed Medicaid cuts in President Trump’s ‘one big, beautiful bill’ has also helped produce a 2026 GOP primary challenger for her and prompted several Iowa Democrats to announce bids for her seat.”

“The incident has shone a fresh spotlight on the Republican Party’s political vulnerabilities as well as Ernst’s uncertain political future, with some Iowa watchers wondering whether she will stand for re-election. She angered Trump’s MAGA allies last year, delayed her trademark summer motorcycle ride until the fall, and now has become the face of what Democrats paint as Republican cruelty toward poor people.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The Iowa Senate race moves onto the periphery of the competitive board this week.”

“Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) was in the news recently for comments on health care, although the bigger reason for the switch is that she drew a potentially credible Democratic challenger.”

“After Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) told a town hall audience, ‘We’re all going to die,’ when responding to constituents’ concerns about Medicaid cuts, Democratic state Rep. J.D. Scholten — who has been publicly flirting with a run against the GOP incumbent — decided to launch his campaign,” Politico reports.

Said Scholten: “I just felt, you know, I have to do this. Now’s the time, and rather than being perfect with everything, I just feel like you got to do it.”

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has gained a double-digit lead over Mike Franken (D) in the closing days of Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, 53% to 41%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Said pollster Ann Selzer: “It’s a seemingly insurmountable lead, though anything can happen. This is a very good poll for Chuck Grassley. He gets not only the overall lead but the strong support of the people who are the core of his base. And Franken, by comparison, it’s more lukewarm among his base.”

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has an 8-point lead on his Democratic opponent, retired Navy Adm. Michael Franken, 47% to 39%, in the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

The last time Grassley, 88, won an election by just 8% was his first election to the U.S. Senate in 1980.

U.S. Senate candidate Abby Finkenauer (D) will appear on the June Democratic primary ballot, the Iowa Supreme Court ruled Friday, reversing a district court decision that found Finkenauer failed to qualify, the Des Moines Register reports.

A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa finds 88-year old Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) leading former Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) in the U.S. Senate race by 18 points in a hypothetical matchup, 55% to 37%.

“Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is under increasing pressure to run for reelection as Democrats look to turn around their recent struggles in Iowa next year,” The Hill reports.

“Republicans have publicly and privately encouraged the 87-year-old Grassley to mount one more campaign, seeing his candidacy as a sure-fire way to lock down the Iowa Senate seat. The party is also eager to avoid another retirement after five of its incumbent senators announced that they will not run for reelection in 2022.”

Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-IA) became the first major Democrat to announce a 2022 run for the U.S. Senate seat long held by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), the Des Moines Register reports.

Said Finkenauer: “On 1/6 the world changed, and so did I. I remember sitting on my couch in Cedar Rapids with my husband as we were watching my former colleagues and my friends get attacked in the United States Capitol… That violent mob, that insurrection, was happening because our country and people were fed misinformation and lies about our elections and democracy, and our senators didn’t push back.”

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) says he will make his decision on whether or not he’s running for reelection between Labor Day and November 1, KYOU reports.

As Iowa Democrats’ top choice for the top of the ticket in 2022, Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) is eyeing a run for the U.S. Senate or Iowa Governor and her Congressional seat — in that order, the Storm Lake Times reports.

However, a staffer later said Axne never indicated a preference, only that “all three options were on the table.”