“I’ve known Ed Gillespie for a long time. I’ve liked Ed Gillespie for a very long time… Smart guy, has always been an honorable guy. I’ll speak for myself, I’m embarrassed for him, and I’m ashamed for the Republican Party that he’s turned to Confederate monuments to try to win this thing in the end. I don’t know if it works for him or not.”
— Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe, about the Virginia governor’s race.
A new Monmouth poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) up a negligible two points against Ed Gillespie (R), 47% to 45%.
“The current results confirm a trend noted in last month’s poll: the race has become an appeal to each party’s base. The two candidates have solidified support in their regional strongholds leaving the Commonwealth’s central region as the kingmaker. At the same time, voters have soured on the tone the campaign has taken in the last six weeks.”
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Northam with a three-point lead.
NBC News: “Democrats have been here before. They’re ahead in the polls, the Republican Party is divided and President Donald Trump’s flaws have been dominating the political landscape. And we all saw how that turned out for the party in 2016.”
“So as Virginia voters choose their next governor on Tuesday — either Democrat Ralph Northam or Republican Ed Gillespie — the central question has become: Unlike in 2016, can Democrats finally win with those advantages? Or will Republicans once again pull off the upset?”
First Read: “Those are the stakes, especially a year away from the all-important midterm elections in 2018, when control of the U.S. House is up for grabs and when Trump’s presence is sure to play another outsize role.”
A new Wason Center poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) by six points, 51% to 45%.
Allocating the undecided voters according to their historical pattern in Wason Center surveys of Virginia statewide elections indicates a Northam victory on Election Day, 51.3% to 46.8%.
A new Fox News poll finds Northam leading Gillespie, 48% to 43%.
A new New York Times/Siena poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) edging out Ed Gillespie (R) in the race for governor, 43% to 40%.
Said pollster Don Levy: “This is a classic barnburner election that will have both candidates and campaigns working hard until the polls close Tuesday night. Northam and Gillespie are both strong with their bases: Gillespie has the support of 88% of Republicans while Northam is supported by 89% of Democrats.”
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Northam ahead by just 1.8%.
“Virginia gubernatorial hopeful Ralph Northam looked like the perfect candidate to help Democrats regain traction with rural voters after a disastrous 2016, with his Southern drawl, upbringing in the state’s rural Eastern Shore and military background,” Politico reports.
“But despite substantial efforts in the far reaches of the commonwealth increasingly ignored by Democrats, Northam appears to be coming up short of a big improvement, according to his own internal polling.”
“Critics point to Northam’s stances on sanctuary cities and natural gas pipelines as possible reasons for the struggles. But the predominant issue may be that no Democrat, no matter their rural credentials, appeals to rural voters who have been turning away from the party for years — a big warning sign for Democrats hoping to compete in dozens of rural-rooted Senate, House and gubernatorial elections around the country next year.”
A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) and Ed Gillespie (R) are tied in the race for governor, 47% to 47%.
Said pollster Harry Wilson: “As we noted in the last poll, Republicans closed well in the 2013 and 2014 elections. This one may be following the same script.”
Andrew Sullivan: “If Gillespie wins, or the result is close, it means the Trump-transformed GOP is electorally viable in every swing district in 2018. That it could win in the state where actual white supremacists marched this past summer and when the president is 20 points underwater is a sobering reminder of the actual state of play in our politics. I can only hope it’s a wake-up call to the Dems. In 2017, they are either useless or actively counterproductive in the struggle to resist right-authoritarianism.”
“They have learned nothing from 2016. Their intelligentsia seems determined to ensure that no midwestern whites ever vote for the party again. Their public faces are still Hillary Clinton, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi. They still believe that something other than electoral politics — the courts, the press, the special counsel — will propel them back to power. They can’t seem to grasp the nettle of left-populism. And they remain obsessed with a Russia scandal that most swing voters don’t give a damn about.”
A new Suffolk University poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) by just four points in the race for governor, 47% to 43%.
New York Times: “A Republican victory in Virginia would demonstrate that the president has not become a liability in off-year elections. In addition, given Gillespie’s post-primary strategic shift to Trumpian themes, a Republican win would serve to demonstrate that the issues of immigration, crime and race continue to win elections, even in a state where Democrats have been thought to have the upper hand.”
“If painting Northam as a friend to violent Salvadoran gangs and pedophiles seems like a stretch, that’s American politics in 2017. We used to think that however grotesque they were, there was still a difference between overt declarations and explicit racial politics on one hand and dog whistles and implicit racial politics on the other. That distinction seems to be fading, if it is not gone altogether. Whether the Gillespie-Trump brand of Republicanism sells to the Virginia electorate this year will tell us a lot about where American politics stand a year after the election of President Trump — and the outcome will also offer tantalizing hints about where we are headed in 2018 and 2020.”
A new Washington Post-Schar School poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) by just five points in the race for governor, 49% to 44%.
Northam was up by 13 points in a Post poll earlier this month
A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) holds a 17-pointlead over Ed Gillespie (R) in the race for governor, 53% to 36%.
A new Wason Center poll in Virginia shows Ralph Northam (D) leading Ed Gillespie (R) by seven points in the race for governor, 50% to 43%, with Libertarian Cliff Hyra at 3%.
“The Democratic National Committee gathered here over the past week with one worry on every activist’s mind: We’d better not lose the Virginia governor’s race,” the Washington Post reports.
“It’s a surprising case of the jitters over a place that hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office in eight years — and that voted resoundingly against Donald Trump last year. But nationally, Democrats haven’t won a marquee race since losing the presidency. They lag Republicans in fundraising. A loss for Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam against Republican Ed Gillespie on Nov. 7 could stir doubts about message and strategy just as the party is gearing up nationally for next year’s all-important midterm elections.”
FiveThirtyEight: “The October average of Virginia gubernatorial surveys has Northam leading Gillespie by 7 percentage points, 50% to 43%.”
“With an average Northam lead of about 7 points, sampling error alone1 suggests that some polls should find Gillespie up by a little and some polls should find Northam with double-digit advantages. That’s exactly what we’re getting.”
“The results we’re getting in Virginia are totally normal and fine, and people shouldn’t be demanding that every poll show the exact same thing.”
First Read lists five reasons why Democrats have a big edge in Virginia’s gubernatorial race:
But they note Gillespie does have one important advantage in this race: Democrats in Virginia don’t turn out as well in non-presidential years.
“The man who rallied Southwest Virginia to vote for Donald Trump last year quit Republican Ed Gillespie’s gubernatorial campaign this week, offended by a personal snub and exasperated by the campaign’s highly cautious stance toward the president,” the Washington Post reports.
“Jack Morgan’s departure follows a half-empty Gillespie rally headlined by Vice President Pence on Saturday in Southwest Virginia, a coal country region that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in November.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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