A new Marquette University Law School poll in Wisconsin shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by six points among likely voters, 43% to 37%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Russ Feingold (D) leads Sen. Ron Johnson (R), 48% to 41%.

A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump among registered voters, 42% to 35%.

But among likely voters her lead grew to 46% to 37%, as just 78% of Republicans said they were absolutely certain they would vote in November, down from 87% in March and 90% in June 2012.

Said pollster Charles Franklin: “That is a substantial fall-off. What we’ve seen over these last two months is a pretty sharp drop-off in Republican likelihood of turning out.”

“It may not happen because we have the machine against us.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, suggesting he may not win today’s Wisconsin primary.

New York Times: “Donald Trump has had a rough couple of weeks. He said he supported punishing women for abortion and then walked it back; his campaign manager was arrested on a charge of battery; he retweeted an unflattering picture of his main opponent’s wife, Heidi Cruz. And the polls show him trailing by a wide margin in Wisconsin, which holds its primary on Tuesday. For some people, it’s a sign that Mr. Trump is finally losing ground.”

“But his problem in Wisconsin is mainly about the state’s demographics, not self-inflicted wounds. Even a 10-percentage-point loss there wouldn’t necessarily indicate any shift against him. The state has always looked as if it would be one of Mr. Trump’s worst. This was true even before the primaries began.”

“Since his loss in Iowa, Mr. Trump has wanted a rematch with Mr. Cruz. In Wisconsin — another state stocked with conservative activists desperate to stop Mr. Trump — he is getting something like it. And it is not going so well,” the New York Times reports.

“As the state prepares to vote on Tuesday, the candidates are at it again, circling and prodding each other in a final sprint before the high-profile contest, which could have outsize ramifications for the Republican nominating contest as Mr. Trump struggles to avoid a contested convention.”

Washington Post: “A defeat for Donald Trump on Tuesday would be an embarrassing setback for the front-runner because it would demonstrate weakness in a place where he should be strong.”

A new Loras College poll in Wisconsin finds Ted Cruz leading the GOP presidential primary with 38%, followed by Donald Trump at 31% and John Kasich at 18%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 47% to 41%.

“Wisconsin election officials say problems with state servers are causing problems for local clerks across the state, as they work to print poll books and process in-person absentee ballots for next Tuesday’s election,” according to Wisconsin Radio Network.

A new Fox Business Poll in Wisconsin shows Ted Cruz leading the GOP presidential primary with 42%, followed by Donald Trump at 32% and John Kasich at 19%.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 48% to 43%.

Harry Enten: “Republicans in Wisconsin have a lot to be happy about, while Trump has drawn much of his support from voters disaffected with the GOP. Republicans run state government and have enacted conservative legislation (which led to the unsuccessful attempt to recall Gov. Scott Walker). Walker and U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan, who is from Wisconsin, both have favorable ratings above 75 percent among the state’s Republicans. Walker, whom Trump has gone after recently, has an 80 percent job approval rating among likely Republican primary voters.”

For members: Is Wisconsin Slipping Away from Trump?

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin shows Ted Cruz just edging Donald Trump in the GOP presidential primary, 38% to 37%, with John Kasich at 17%.

Caveat: “There are indications within the numbers that Cruz could win a wider victory though. In a head to head match up with Trump he leads 49/41. That’s because Kasich voters prefer him over Trump by a 51/19 spread. Only 63% of Kasich voters say they’re definitely going to vote for him (Cruz and Trump are both over 80% on that metric), so if his supporters end up moving to one of the top two it could mean a wider Cruz victory.”

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 43%.

A new Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin shows Ted Cruz leading the GOP presidential primary with 40%, followed by Donald Trump at 30% and John Kasich at 21%.

In the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 45%.

Donald Trump arrived in Wisconsin and made it abundantly clear that he’s running against Scott Walker in this state’s looming presidential primary, saying Wisconsin “is doing very poorly,” is “losing jobs all over the place” and is mired in “vitriol” over the governor, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

“Trump is trying to win the Wisconsin primary while repudiating his party’s most influential figures here. He bragged Tuesday about crushing Walker’s presidential bid. He accused him of sowing discord and starving the schools because he refused to raise taxes.”

Wall Street Journal: GOP establishment unites against Trump in Wisconsin

A new Basswood Research survey in Wisconsin shows Sen. Ted Cruz leading Donald Trump in the GOP primary race, 36% to 31%, followed by John Kasich at 21%.

Interesting: “Cruz’s lead expands dramatically in a head-to-head contest with Trump. If Kasich were to drop out before the primary, 48% percent of respondents say they would back Cruz, compared to just 36% for Trump.”

A new Emerson College survey shows Cruz leading with 36%, followed by Trump at 35% and Kasich at 19%.

Washington Post: “At a glance, Wisconsin looks like the first genuine three-way race of the long primary. It’s the first state where all voting — even early voting, which began Monday — will occur without the presence of Marco Rubio, who recently ended his campaign. It’s also a region that has basically split between Cruz, Donald Trump and Gov. John Kasich. Across Illinois, Michigan and Ohio, Cruz won an average 21.7 percent of the vote; in the biggest suburbs of each state, he frequently ran behind Kasich.”

“That offers Cruz the chance to surprise, and reset the campaign narrative, in what superficially looks like enemy terrain. Even a narrow win would given Cruz a shot at all 42 of the state’s delegates.”