Wisconsin Voters Find They Were Removed from Rolls

“Dozens of active Green Bay area voters went to cast their ballot in Tuesday’s primary election only to find they had been removed from voter rolls,” the Green Bay Press Gazette reports.

“Wisconsin Elections Commission spokesman Reid Magney attributed many problems voters experienced on Tuesday to a multistate electronic tracking system the state started using in 2016 to update its statewide voter rolls.  He said the system sent postcards in November to close to 400,000 voters the Electronic Registration Information Center, or ERIC, identified as people who moved and would need to either confirm their details or register with updated information.”

Russian Facebook Ads Targeted Michigan and Wisconsin

“A number of Russian-linked Facebook ads specifically targeted Michigan and Wisconsin, two states crucial to Donald Trump’s victory last November,” CNN reports.

“Some of the Russian ads appeared highly sophisticated in their targeting of key demographic groups in areas of the states that turned out to be pivotal… The ads employed a series of divisive messages aimed at breaking through the clutter of campaign ads online, including promoting anti-Muslim messages.”

“As part of their investigations, both special counsel Robert Mueller and congressional committees are seeking to determine whether the Russians received any help from Trump associates in where to target the ads.”

Wisconsin Recount Will Need to Move Quickly

“Wisconsin will hold its first-ever presidential recount in the coming weeks and the state could risk losing its ability to have its 10 electoral votes counted if it doesn’t meet key deadlines next month,” the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports.

“Hitting a Dec. 13 deadline could be particularly tricky if Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein is able to force the recount to be conducted by hand… A federal ‘safe harbor’ law requires states to complete presidential recounts within 35 days of the election to ensure their electoral votes are counted. This year, that’s Dec. 13.”

Wisconsin Redistricting Unfairly Favored GOP

“A panel of three federal judges said on Monday that the Wisconsin Legislature’s 2011 redrawing of State Assembly districts to favor Republicans was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander, the first such ruling in three decades of pitched legal battles over the issue,” the New York Times reports.

“Federal courts have struck down gerrymanders on racial grounds, but not on grounds that they unfairly give advantage to a political party — the more common form of gerrymandering. The case could now go directly to the Supreme Court, where its fate may rest with a single justice, Anthony M. Kennedy, who has expressed a willingness to strike down partisan gerrymanders but has yet to accept a rationale for it.”

Voter ID Law Hurt Turnout In Wisconsin

“Wisconsin’s voter ID law caused problems at the polls in the city and likely contributed to lower voter turnout, Milwaukee’s elections chief said Thursday,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

“The city saw a decline of some 41,000 voters in Tuesday’s election compared with 2012, when President Barack Obama won broad support in Milwaukee and coasted to re-election.”

Clinton Leads In Wisconsin

A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump among registered voters, 42% to 35%.

But among likely voters her lead grew to 46% to 37%, as just 78% of Republicans said they were absolutely certain they would vote in November, down from 87% in March and 90% in June 2012.

Said pollster Charles Franklin: “That is a substantial fall-off. What we’ve seen over these last two months is a pretty sharp drop-off in Republican likelihood of turning out.”

Wisconsin Hurts Trump In Delegate Race

Nate Silver: “Clearly tonight’s results were problematic for Trump in terms of his delegate math. A few weeks ago, we’d projected Trump to win 25 delegates in Wisconsin. It looks like he’ll only get 3 to 6 instead. After also accounting for Trump’s failure to get any delegates in Utah last month, our estimate would now project him to get 1,179 to 1,182 delegates total, or somewhere between 55 and 58 short of the 1,237 he’d need to clinch the nomination. Trump could potentially make up the difference by persuading uncommitted delegates to vote for him, although given how poorly Trump’s doing in the delegate-wrangling business, that might not be easy.”

“But the more immediate question — the one I’m not quite ready to answer — is what tonight tells us about how Trump might perform in subsequent states.”

Wall Street Journal: Who’s winning the delegate race?

Why Wisconsin Is So Important for Republicans

First Read: “Now if Cruz wins all of the state’s 42 delegates, which is possible if he runs the table, the percentage of remaining delegates that Trump will need to win to hit the magic number will increase to about 59%. If Cruz triumphs in Wisconsin, but Trump wins a handful of congressional districts, Trump’s percentage will be 57%. And if Trump somehow wins all of the state’s delegates, it will go down to 54%. So in a race where EVERY delegate matters, tonight’s margin — and the corresponding delegate haul — is what’s important.”

For members: The Math Is Now Against Trump

Putting a Trump Loss In Wisconsin In Perspective

New York Times: “Donald Trump has had a rough couple of weeks. He said he supported punishing women for abortion and then walked it back; his campaign manager was arrested on a charge of battery; he retweeted an unflattering picture of his main opponent’s wife, Heidi Cruz. And the polls show him trailing by a wide margin in Wisconsin, which holds its primary on Tuesday. For some people, it’s a sign that Mr. Trump is finally losing ground.”

“But his problem in Wisconsin is mainly about the state’s demographics, not self-inflicted wounds. Even a 10-percentage-point loss there wouldn’t necessarily indicate any shift against him. The state has always looked as if it would be one of Mr. Trump’s worst. This was true even before the primaries began.”

Cruz and Trump Face Off In Wisconsin

“Since his loss in Iowa, Mr. Trump has wanted a rematch with Mr. Cruz. In Wisconsin — another state stocked with conservative activists desperate to stop Mr. Trump — he is getting something like it. And it is not going so well,” the New York Times reports.

“As the state prepares to vote on Tuesday, the candidates are at it again, circling and prodding each other in a final sprint before the high-profile contest, which could have outsize ramifications for the Republican nominating contest as Mr. Trump struggles to avoid a contested convention.”

Washington Post: “A defeat for Donald Trump on Tuesday would be an embarrassing setback for the front-runner because it would demonstrate weakness in a place where he should be strong.”