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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194

What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Democrats Splinter as Shutdown Nears Record

November 4, 2025 · 7:17 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Democrats are showing unmistakable signs of splintering as the government shutdown reaches the cusp of setting an all-time record,” Politico reports.

“While many are still demanding their colleagues dig in and fight, a critical mass of Democratic senators appear to be engaged in serious talks about bringing an end to the five-week stalemate. The shutdown is set to overtake the 35-day record Tuesday night.”

Budget & Taxes

A Potential Deal to Reopen the Government?

November 4, 2025 · 6:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “The outlines of a potential deal to end the shutdown are starting to take shape, although the talks are very fragile at this point and there’s still a long way to go.”

“Senators and aides involved in negotiations tell us some Senate Democrats are warming to Thune’s offer to open the government and then hold a vote by a date-certain on renewing the extending the expiring Obamacare subsidies.”

“The shutdown has become too painful, many of these Democrats believe, and Republicans clearly aren’t going to cave by negotiating an Obamacare deal before the stalemate ends. A date-certain vote on Obamacare subsidies creates another new deadline and allows time to craft a bill that could win enough GOP support.”

Politico reports “a critical mass of Democratic senators appear to be engaged in serious talks about bringing an end to the five-week stalemate.”

Budget & Taxes

Trump Agrees to Fund Some Food Assistance

November 3, 2025 · 12:49 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Trump administration told a federal judge that it would tap billions of dollars in contingency funds to pay at least some SNAP benefits during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, CNBC reports.

Budget & Taxes

Quote of the Day

November 3, 2025 · 11:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

“They have gone out into the hall to the nearest camera they can find and looked into the lens and said Republicans are shutting down the government. It makes no sense. It is the most extreme example of gas lighting in the history of American politics. And many in the media have allowed them to get away with that. It is shameful.”

— Speaker Mike Johnson, talking to reporters about House Democrats.

Budget & Taxes

Mike Johnson Says New Funding Bill Likely

November 3, 2025 · 11:35 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday that GOP leaders are discussing ways to deal with the rapidly approaching Nov. 21 expiration date of the continuing resolution that passed the House last month and is now stalled in in the Senate,” Politico reports.

“Republican leaders are privately eyeing another stopgap into early 2026 which would be part of any deal to reopen the government.”

Budget & Taxes

Eight Senate Democrats Meet to Reopen the Government

November 3, 2025 · 10:11 am ET · Leave a Comment

“At least eight moderate Senate Democrats are meeting in hopes of finding a deal to end the monthlong government shutdown, but sources familiar with the closely held conversations say they will need strong assurances from the GOP before voting to reopen the government,” The Hill reports.

Budget & Taxes

GOP Leaders Not Budging on Obamacare Subsidies

November 3, 2025 · 7:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “Even as party leaders and Trump refuse to meet with each other on ending the standoff, rank-and-file senators on both sides are talking, focusing on finding some agreement on FY2026 spending bills. The hope is that an agreement on spending can help unlock the shutdown.”

“Those bipartisan talks continued over the weekend, and there’s some optimism about getting to a resolution.”

“However, Trump and the GOP leaders are showing no signs of caving on extending the expiring Obamacare premium subsidies. Schumer and Jeffries continue to demand an extension as part of any deal to reopen the government. So the standoff grinds on. Open enrollment began on Saturday.”

Budget & Taxes, Health Care

Congress to Crush U.S. Record This Week for Shutdown

November 3, 2025 · 6:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Congress is on track this week to break an unflattering record: presiding over the longest government shutdown in U.S. history,” Politico reports.

“The ongoing funding lapse will hit the 35-day mark Tuesday night, eclipsing the partial shutdown that ended in early 2019 and also occurred under President Donald Trump.”

Playbook: ”White House officials had been running an informal pool at the start of the shutdown over how long the whole thing would last. The longest anyone predicted was 10 days.”

Budget & Taxes

Republicans Shoulder More Blame for Shutdown

November 2, 2025 · 10:53 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Voters say President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are more to blame for the ongoing government shutdown,” according to a new NBC News poll.

“But their verdict on the spending stalemate includes more blame for Democrats than some past shutdowns, part of a growing collection of data outlining negative views of both parties.”

Budget & Taxes

Shutdown Pain Spreads at One Month

November 1, 2025 · 3:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The US government shutdown becomes painfully real for tens of millions Americans this weekend as it hit the one-month mark with food aid disrupted, cuts to child care kicking in, and health insurance premiums spiking,” Bloomberg reports.

“The shutdown is expected to break the 35-day record set in President Donald Trump’s first term next week, after the Senate left town Thursday for a long weekend. The House hasn’t been in session since Sept. 19.”

Budget & Taxes

The Shutdown’s Tone Shifts a Bit

November 1, 2025 · 10:13 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “It was subtle, and it’s not clear that anyone is any closer to getting to a resolution, but after weeks of groundhog days, we’ll take any signs of movement we can get.”

“So, what changed? We saw some bipartisan conversations over appropriations spark to life. Senators suddenly seemed more optimistic that they could find an off-ramp to this shutdown. Democrats ran a hotline on several appropriations bills, which was the first movement we saw on funding bills in a long time.”

“Still, none of that means we’re getting out of this shutdown soon. Lawmakers are on track to set the infamous record of the longest shutdown ever. Republicans and Democrats aren’t closer to a deal on the expiring Obamacare subsidies, which have been at the crux of the shutdown fight.”

Wall Street Journal: Trump’s demands throw wrench into delicate shutdown talks.

Budget & Taxes

Trump Has Other Things to Do

November 1, 2025 · 7:29 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “The pain of the government shutdown is growing more acute as it grinds toward the five-week mark, with Congress showing little movement toward a resolution. But President Trump has been attending to other matters.”

Budget & Taxes

The Origins of the Government Shutdown

October 31, 2025 · 3:09 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Russell Berman: “Government shutdowns are a relatively modern phenomenon. For most of America’s nearly 250-year history, a lapse in congressional appropriations forced federal agencies to limit their spending, but not to close entirely. That changed only under Carter. In 1980, his attorney general, Benjamin Civiletti, wrote a memo in which he argued that according to federal law, the government could not operate once funding bills expired.”

“The era of shutdowns had begun, and from that point on, legislative impasses over spending have put hundreds of thousands of federal employees out of work and reduced government services for millions more.”

Budget & Taxes

Trump Ordered to Pay Food Stamp Benefits

October 31, 2025 · 2:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Two federal judges ruled nearly simultaneously on Friday that President Donald Trump’s administration must continue to fund SNAP, the nation’s biggest food aid program, using contingency funds during the government shutdown,” the AP reports.

“The rulings came a day before the U.S. Department of Agriculture planned to freeze payments to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program because it said it could no longer keep funding it due to the shutdown.”

“The program serves about 1 in 8 Americans and is a major piece of the nation’s social safety net.”

Budget & Taxes

Moment of Truth for SNAP

October 31, 2025 · 2:04 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The moment of truth for SNAP is drawing near, as federal rulings could come at any moment on whether the Agriculture Department legally has to tap emergency money to fund the program ahead of tomorrow’s shutdown-induced cliff,” Politico reports.

“Food aid for tens of millions of low-income Americans hangs in the balance, though many states have plans to step in with funding temporarily.”

Budget & Taxes

Military Will Be Paid Today

October 31, 2025 · 10:58 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Members of the military will be paid on Oct. 31 despite a lapse in funding during the ongoing government shutdown,” USA Today reports.

“To cover $5.3 billion in military pay, OMB said officials have pulled monies from three different financial accounts, including $2.5 billion from a military spending account allocated as part of the Big Beautiful Bill.”

Budget & Taxes

Five Unions Break with Democrats on Shutdown

October 30, 2025 · 10:42 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Democrats’ already fraying alliance with organized labor is coming under new strain as a growing list of union leaders calls on the party to accept a Republican bill that would reopen the government,” Axios reports.

“Once it would have been virtually unthinkable for so many unions to break so decisively with their long-time Democratic compatriots in such a highly charged national fight. Not anymore.”

“Now five unions have called on Senate Democrats to change their position and vote to reopen the government.”

Budget & Taxes

The Politics of the Shutdown

October 30, 2025 · 6:25 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Jessica Yellin and I discussed what’s behind the likely longest government shutdown in U.S. history. And we talked about how it might end.

Jessica’s newsletter, News Not Noise, is a must read.

Budget & Taxes

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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