Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194
What Just Happened?
“Adam Hamilton raised $10.6 million in the third quarter of 2026 across his Senate campaign and his joint fundraising committees, a significant haul for the Kansas Democrat,” Politico reports.
“The fundraising total illustrates Democrats’ newfound bullishness about flipping a Senate seat in the deep-red state for the first time since 1932.”
“Elon Musk has become the biggest political donor of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections cycle, funneling about $366m into political groups and campaigns as he backs conservative candidates and rightwing causes,” The Guardian reports.
“The world’s richest person has poured more than $276m into politics since July alone, some of the most rapid political spending in U.S. history.”
“The Senate Republicans’ allied super political action committee plans to spend an additional $8 million to aid embattled Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts who faces a strong challenge from independent Dan Osborn,” Bloomberg reports.
“Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) raked in $17 million over the last three months, a sizable haul for the Democratic challenger in one of the biggest Senate battlegrounds,” Politico reports.
Punchbowl News: “A lot of things are going well for Democrats in the fight for control of Congress. Their candidates are polling strongly. Republicans are being forced to shift money to red states. President Donald Trump continues to drag down his party’s chances of retaining the House and Senate.”
“But the Democratic Party’s top leaders are increasingly warning that a massive cash disadvantage could blunt their gains on what otherwise may be a blockbuster night.”
“The fear? Democrats could wake up on Nov. 4 knowing they left winnable races on the table for lack of cash.”
“Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a candidate for U.S. Senate, received campaign contributions from the staff or political arms of five organizations with interests in legal matters on which his office weighed in,” the Washington Post reports.
”The size of the contributions varied, with money from some firms or members of their staff totaling tens of thousands of dollars.”
“Ten megadonors accounted for more than half of the $300 million that President Trump raised for the new White House ballroom and legacy projects around Washington,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The identities of the donors, who contributed between $10 million and $25 million apiece, weren’t included in the public filing by the Trust for the National Mall, a long established nonprofit which the White House has also used to manage funds it raised for the triumphal arch and the Rose Garden.”
“The cryptocurrency industry’s leading super PAC is set to spend to boost GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts in his Nebraska reelection campaign,” Politico reports.
“It is unclear how much the PAC network, known as Fairshake, will spend in the contest.”
“Republicans are entering the final month of the midterm campaign increasingly anxious that the $1 billion at their disposal may not be enough to fend off sweeping losses as the party reckons with President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, persistent cost concerns and the fallout from the war in Iran,” the Chicago Tribube reports.
“The cash advantage, spread out across a half-dozen groups, is driven largely by the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. which had nearly $416 million in cash on hand at the end of August and began stepping up its spending on critical races in September.”
“But that money may have come too late, forcing the president’s group to pay much higher rates because of the shrinking availability of air time.”
“MAGA Inc. is planning to trim the map in a homestretch bid to cling to power in November,” Politico reports.
“The President Donald Trump-aligned super PAC, with several hundred million dollars still in the bank, is planning a series of major money moves coordinated with other leading GOP super PACs in the final three weeks before Election Day. The push includes cutting off spending to a group of less attainable House races, piling in money to shore up others and training its focus on key Senate seats to salvage Republicans’ Senate majority.”
“Ohio, Alaska and Iowa are the Senate races that Trump officials view as increasingly critical to keep their majority in the chamber.”
“Elon Musk has quietly funneled more than $276 million into Republican groups and his super PAC since the start of July, building a huge turnout operation to help the party battle headwinds in the midterm elections,” the New York Times reports.
“The staggering amount of money makes Mr. Musk, the richest person in the world, by far the largest known donor in the midterms.”
MS NOW: “According to Marshall’s most recent Federal Election Commission records filed in July, no one working for Marshall’s campaign had received a paycheck in the past five years — a situation that campaign finance experts said was potentially unprecedented in the modern era of politics.”
“But according to Marshall’s chief of staff, Brent Robertson, the campaign now does have some paid staff, though he declined to offer evidence or details, such as how many people were being paid or when their employment began.”
“Still, campaign experts say the situation raises questions about the line between Marshall’s campaign and his taxpayer-funded Senate office.”
“A midterm election exceeding the spending of a presidential election is a rare occurrence, but campaign spending is reaching astronomical levels ahead of the 2026 midterms,” NewsNation reports.
“According to AdImpact projections, about $11.6 billion is expected to be spent on the 2026 midterms, roughly $400 million more than the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 general election.”
“The biggest donors in the 2026 midterm election are breaking decisively toward Republican candidates and causes,” CNBC reports.
“Fourteen of the 20 largest donors and donor groups this election cycle have exclusively or nearly exclusively backed GOP candidates or aligned groups… Together, the 20 account for $1.2 billion, or about an eighth of the roughly $9.8 billion raised this election cycle.”
“House Speaker Mike Johnson raised $30 million in the third quarter, bringing his total haul this cycle to $156 million as Republicans fight to hold on to their increasingly endangered majority,” Axios reports.
“These midterm elections may be remembered as the year the wealthy dominated in political spending for congressional and state elections — to questionable results,” the Washington Post reports.
“The elections are on track to break spending records… And some of the richest Americans and corporations are dominating the spending.”
“But money doesn’t seem to be solving Republicans’ problems yet, and all the spending can even backfire amid voters’ discontent with the economy and their government.”
“President Trump is still using your money to pay for his propaganda hype video commercials ahead of the midterms,” the New Republic reports.
“On Wednesday morning, another ‘Final Battle’ commercial for the president aired on Fox & Friends, featuring a black and white clip of Trump walking while he references a ‘final battle.’ It’s the same one that aired on September 27.”
Wired: “To monitor America PAC’s spending in the midterms, Wired has created a live tracker that updates daily and highlights where America PAC is putting money into the midterms, from individual races to Musk’s overall influence on the election season. It draws on America PAC’s filings with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), which the agency processes daily and which lists all the payments America PAC has made for ads, mailers, and texts.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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