“After Senate Democrats blocked a bill to regulate cryptocurrency on the Senate floor last week, the industry’s major Super PAC network announced the first installment in what is expected to be a heavy wave of spending before the midterm elections,” the Washington Sun reports.
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194
What Just Happened?
Timothy Mellon Pulls Back From Senate Republicans
“One of the Republican Party’s biggest donors has sharply reduced his giving ahead of the midterm elections, especially to Senate Republicans, a decision driven largely by the party’s failure to pass a far-reaching bill of voting restrictions,” the New York Times reports.
“The donor, Timothy Mellon, a reclusive Wyoming billionaire who is a grandson of the Gilded Age industrialist Andrew Mellon, gave nearly $200 million to support President Trump and other Republicans in the 2024 election. Only Elon Musk donated more.”
“Two years later, Mr. Mellon has given just $3 million or so in publicly disclosed donations to Republican candidates or groups.”
Democrats Lead in Polls, Republicans Lead in Cash
“Republicans are entering the final sprint to the 2026 midterm election trailing Democrats in national and battleground polls and defending much of the most competitive terrain in Congress. But on one critical measure, they hold a clear advantage: cash,” CNBC reports.
“The GOP’s three national committees entered September with roughly $233.4 million in cash on hand, nearly double the $130.4 million held by their Democratic counterparts.”
“And that does not include the biggest Republican-aligned war chest: President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, which entered September with nearly $416 million in the bank.”
GOP Group Outspent Democrats Nearly 46-to-1
“The National Republican Senatorial Committee outspent its Democratic counterpart on advertising by nearly 46-to-1 in August, Federal Election Commission records show, a blitz that reflects the financial advantage the GOP holds in this year’s midterm contests,” Bloomberg reports.
“In what’s projected to be the most expensive U.S. election ever, the NRSC unloaded $45.9 million in coordination with its candidates in nine races last month. That spending took advantage of a Supreme Court ruling from June that eliminated limits on how much parties could jointly spend on their behalf.”
Trump-Linked Groups Plan Ad Blitz to Boost Republicans
“Republicans have felt uneasy for months that President Donald Trump would keep the party’s single largest war chest closed during the midterms and cost them control of Congress. Now that money is flowing,” the Washington Post reports.
“Since the beginning of this month, MAGA Inc. and other super PACs linked to the president have invested more than $130 million into races across the country, according to records of reserved advertising. That rush has eased conservative anxiety in tight races and put on full display what many view as one of their biggest strengths heading into November: cash.”
Democrats Scramble for More Cash Ahead of the Midterms
“Top Democrats across the country are privately warning that they do not have enough cash in the November midterms to capitalize on what could be their party’s best political environment in over a decade and are at serious risk of leaving winnable seats on the table,” CNN reports.
“These conversations, described by two dozen Democratic sources, have become increasingly fraught in recent weeks as President Donald Trump’s political operation and other GOP super PACs have unleashed a tidal wave of spending into House and Senate battlegrounds that Democrats have been unable to match.”
Republicans Are Unleashing Their Fundraising Advantage
“Republicans are pumping money into a series of Senate and House battleground states, unleashing one of their biggest advantages over Democrats as they seek to overcome electoral headwinds in the final weeks before midterm elections,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Democratic candidates have mostly outpaced their Republican opponents in fundraising, but the GOP has maintained a significant lead among their network of super PACs and party committees—and are beginning to open the spending spigot in significant ways.”
“Advertisers supporting Republicans across 10 key Senate races have spent more than $204 million in the first 18 days of September, according to AdImpact—$83 million more than those helping Democrats. It is a sharp turn upward from all of August, when the Republican spending advantage was about $9 million.”
Washington Sun: The NRSC’s spending surges for key midterm races.
Newsom Signs Influencer Disclosure Law
“Gov. Gavin Newsom of California signed legislation on Saturday that will penalize social media influencers who do not properly disclose paid political content posted on the internet,” the New York Times reports.
“The state has required the disclosures for paid posts about state- and local-level campaigns since 2023, but until now, content creators couldn’t be fined or prosecuted if they failed to comply. Now, California campaign finance regulators are empowered to impose fines on influencers of up to $5,000 for each violation or to refer those violations to law enforcement as potential misdemeanors.”
Trump Faces Complaint Over Super PAC Control
“President Trump has called the $400 million super PAC run by his political advisers ‘my money that I control.’ A campaign watchdog group this week filed a formal complaint with the Federal Election Commission claiming that such an arrangement is illegal,” the New York Times reports.
“Federal law bars those holding federal office from directing spending decisions for a political organization with no contribution limits.”
“Yet Mr. Trump has made clear repeatedly that he maintains ‘control’ over MAGA Inc. a $400 million super PAC for which he has been raising money since he won re-election in 2024.”
DNC Gets Fundraising Boost After Months of Struggle
“The Democratic National Committee racked up two of its biggest grassroots fundraising months in a midterm cycle this summer, bringing in more than $14 million combined in July and August,” the Washington Sun reports.
“The grassroots totals surpassed what the DNC hit in those two months in 2018, the midterm cycle during President Donald Trump’s first term, according to data the committee shared first with The Washington Sun. The committee also hit 1 million unique individual donors for the cycle this summer, a traditionally sleepy time for fundraising.”
GOP Outspends Democrats in Competitive Races
NPR: “When it comes to ad spending, Republicans now have a significant advantage heading into the closing weeks of the 2026 midterms.”
“According to an NPR analysis of AdImpact data, Republican candidates and groups have pledged to spend more than $557 million to Democrats’ $343 million in the nine most competitive Senate races this fall. Republican reservations outpace Democrats in all but one of those contests (Georgia). That advantage stretches further once House elections are factored in.”
Montana Ballot Measure Would Strike at ‘Dark Money’
“Voter disgust over an avalanche of political spending by corporations, labor unions and other special-interest groups is driving support for a possible ban on ‘dark money’ in Montana, which could test a landmark Supreme Court decision,” the New York Times reports.
“The ballot measure has strong backers from across the political spectrum, including a well-known former Republican governor and Democratic senator who have campaigned for it together.”
“The main challenge: Threading the needle of Citizens United, the 2010 Supreme Court decision in which a 5-4 majority ruled that independent political spending by corporations and labor unions was a protected form of free speech.”
Democratic Fundraising Machine Is Fighting Back
“ActBlue, the top Democratic fundraising platform that has been embroiled in years of GOP investigations over whether it improperly vetted foreign donations, is escalating efforts to clear its name,” the Washington Post reports.
“A law firm representing the group to review its donation history met congressional investigators Friday to present its evidence that ActBlue properly verified the source of contributions and did not mislead lawmakers about that process. But the new report is unlikely to end the problems for the group that Democrats have relied upon to process billions of dollars in campaign donations.”
A Revolt Against Corporate Money in Trump Country
“More than 15 years after the U.S. Supreme Court reshaped American politics with its Citizens United campaign finance ruling, Montana voters will decide this November whether to make their state the first in the nation to bar corporations from spending money on elections through a ballot initiative,” Reuters reports.
“It’s a test case for a novel legal strategy that sidesteps the 2010 ruling rather than challenging it head-on — and taps into growing, bipartisan anger over the pervasiveness of so-called dark money in elections.”
Party Leaders Tell Members to Pay Up
“House Republican and Democratic leaders both exhorted their rank-and-file lawmakers to open their wallets this morning for endangered colleagues in the run-up to the midterm elections, which are now just 49 days away,” Punchbowl News reports.
Democratic Donors Bypass the Party
“Democratic donors who were once turned off by the state of their party are beginning to write checks again, spurred by the prospect of Republican losses in November’s midterm elections,” NewsNation reports.
“But their return comes with a big caveat: Many are bypassing the party and homing in on individual candidates and races where they say they can help Democrats gain control of both chambers of Congress.”
Trump Midterm Convention Becomes Unusual Fundraiser
“President Trump’s unusual midterm convention is also an unusual fund-raising opportunity for the Republican Party,” the New York Times reports.
“To begin with, the two-day extravaganza in Dallas is more like a cash-for-seat reception than it is a traditional experience for delegates who carry out party business at a normal presidential-year convention.”
“Mr. Trump’s convention will still have unofficial delegates, even if they have no formal business to conduct — and some state parties are charging them for the right to attend, much as fund-raising events charge those who want to attend a VIP reception.”
Trump’s Super PAC Is Tied to Mystery Group
“President Trump’s political operation is behind a mysterious new super PAC that on Tuesday placed a $25 million reservation for advertisements to help Republicans in half a dozen key midterm races,” the New York Times reports.
“The new group, No Going Back PAC Inc. is linked to MAGA Inc. Mr. Trump’s powerful main super PAC… The reservations target six Senate races and one House battleground, with most of the money going to the Senate contests in New Hampshire and Alaska.”
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