Oregon officials will make nearly $600,000 in federal funding available to local strippers and sex workers who have lost income because of the pandemic, the Washington Post reports.
The Economic Divide Grows Wider
Brookings: “The stark economic rift that Brookings Metro documented after Donald Trump’s shocking 2016 victory has grown even wider. In 2016, we wrote that the 2,584 counties that Trump won generated just 36% of the country’s economic output, whereas the 472 counties Hillary Clinton carried equated to almost two-thirds of the nation’s aggregate economy.”
“A similar analysis for last week’s election shows these trends continuing, albeit with a different political outcome. This time, Biden’s winning base in 477 counties encompasses fully 70% of America’s economic activity, while Trump’s losing base of 2,497 counties represents just 29% of the economy. (Votes are still outstanding in 110 mostly low-output counties, and this piece will be updated as new data is reported.)”
Biden’s Pick for Treasury Will Be Telling
Washington Post: “A leading candidate for the post is Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard, who served as a senior Treasury Department official in the Obama administration. Brainard has broad policymaking experience, particularly during economic crises, as well as wide respect among international foreign ministries and central banks from her time as the department’s top diplomat.”
“At the same time, Biden could face pressure from the Democratic Party’s left wing to pick a more liberal figure, someone who could push for aggressive financial overhauls and prove more adversarial to supporters of free trade. Such a nominee, however, could face difficulty winning Senate confirmation if Republicans retain control.”
European Union to Impose Tariffs on U.S.
Deutsche Welle: “European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said on Monday that the EU will push ahead with plans to impose tariffs and other penalties worth up to $4 billion on an array of U.S. imports.”
“The tariffs come in retaliation to the U.S. awarding illegal subsidies to the airplane manufacturer Boeing.”
McConnell Calls for New Relief Package
“Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday that Congress should approve a coronavirus relief package before the end of the year, a shift from his recent suggestion that a measure was more likely early next year,” Politico reports.
Said McConnell: “We need another rescue package. Hopefully the partisan passions that prevented us from doing another rescue package will subside with the election and I think we need to do it and I think we need to do it before the end of the year.”
McConnell Won’t Take Up Relief Package In Lame Duck
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) says he expects Congress to move another coronavirus relief package “right at the beginning” of 2021, breaking from Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who told reporters Thursday she wants to get a deal in the lame-duck session, The Hill reports.
Said McConnell: “We probably need to do another package, certainly more modest than the $3 trillion Nancy Pelosi package. I think that’ll be something we’ll need to do right at the beginning of the year.”
Avalanche of Fraud Buried Small Business Relief Program
Bloomberg: “For a few months this year, a U.S. government aid program meant for struggling small-business owners was handing out $10,000 to just about anyone who asked. All it took was a five-minute online application. You just had to say you owned a business with at least 10 employees, and the grant usually arrived within a few days.”
“People caught on fast. In some neighborhoods in Chicago and Miami, it seemed like everyone made a bogus application to the Small Business Administration’s Covid-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loan program. Professional thieves from Russia to Nigeria cashed in. Low-level employees at the agency watched helplessly as misspent money flew out the door. Even after the $20 billion in funding for grants dried up in July, the fraud continued, as scammers looted a separate $192 billion pot of money set aside for loans.”
Economic Growth Rebounded In Third Quarter
“The economy grew at a record pace in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, recovering a good chunk of pandemic losses but still below where it ended 2019,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Forecasters expect the economy to expand through the fourth quarter, though more slowly, amid a pandemic still disrupting lives and commerce as the virus infects tens of thousands of people a day. Analysts project the economy will end 2020 smaller than a year earlier, but grow in 2021.”
New York Times: “Already, there are signs that the recovery is losing steam.”
Hope for Vote on Virus Relief Fades
“The three months of squabbling over a new round of virus relief moved no closer to a resolution over the weekend, all but extinguishing the prospects of a stimulus bill being written, voted on, and signed into law by President Trump before the election,” Bloomberg reports.
“House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she’s waiting for another counteroffer Monday from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, as she and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows accused each other of ‘moving the goalposts’ in negotiations.”
Trump Doesn’t Have a Second Term Plan
“President Trump has not laid out an economic agenda for his second term, despite the election being just eight days away,” Axios reports.
“This is unprecedented in modern presidential campaigns, and makes it harder for undecided voters to make an informed choice.”
“Trump’s campaign website doesn’t include a section on forward-looking policies, including the economy. Instead, it only lists first-term accomplishments.”
Business Sees Biden as a Relief
“Joe Biden is running for president on the sort of platform that usually makes business sweat: higher taxes on corporations and investors, aggressive action to phase out fossil fuels, stronger unions and an expanded government role in health care,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Yet many business executives and their allies are greeting the prospect of a Biden presidency with either ambivalence or relief. Credit that not to who Mr. Biden is, but who he isn’t: Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, senators with a much more adversarial approach to business who lost to Mr. Biden in the Democratic primary, or President Trump, whose administration has been marked by economic-policy unpredictability.”
Senate Republicans Balk at Relief Package Before Election
“Senate Republicans reiterated on Wednesday their stiff opposition to the White House’s last-ditch effort to cut a major stimulus deal with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the latest indication that passing any new relief package almost certainly will have to wait until after Election Day,” CNN reports.
McConnell Warned White House Against Stimulus Deal
“Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told Senate Republicans that he has warned the White House not to make a big stimulus deal before the election,” the Washington Post reports.
“McConnell suggested that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is not negotiating in good faith with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and any deal they reach could disrupt the Senate’s plans to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court next week.”
New York Times: “Mr. McConnell’s counsel threw cold water on Mr. Trump’s increasingly urgent push to enact a fresh round of pandemic aid before he faces voters on Nov. 3. It underscored the divisions within the party that have long hampered a compromise.”
The Final Polling Domino Falls for Trump
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Bonus Quote of the Day
“I don’t want to carry over the droppings of this grotesque elephant into the next presidency. We’ve got to get something big, and we’ve got to get it done soon and we’ve got to get it done right.”
— Speaker Nancy Pelosi, quoted by the New York Times, on negotiating a new economic relief deal with the Trump administration.
Voters Finally Turn Against Trump on the Economy
A new Financial Times poll finds more Americans believe President Trump’s policies are hurting rather than helping the recovery.
The survey of likely voters found 46% of Americans believe Trump’s policies had hurt the economy, compared to 44% who said the policies had helped. It was the first time this year that a larger share of respondents said the president’s economic policies had hurt rather than helped, and was a significant drop-off since the start of the pandemic.
Wave of Evictions Is Coming
Reuters: “Unless Congress and the Trump administration move past their deadlock over the contours of a new COVID-19 relief package and include financial relief for tenants and landlords, January will bring a surge in displacement and homelessness ‘unlike anything we have ever seen.'”
Goldman Says Democratic Sweep Would Unleash Stimulus
Goldman Sachs told clients that a Democratic “blue wave” in November could unleash the fiscal floodgates and fuel the amount of stimulus flowing from Washington, CNBC reports.
Wrote chief economist Jan Hatzius: “A congressional Democratic majority would likely result in substantially more fiscal support. We expect that spending would increase the most under a Democratic sweep of the House, Senate and White House.”
Goldman also reiterated its finding that the boost to U.S. economic growth would “outweigh the negative effects of tax increases.”
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