Merkel Warns of Very Tough Times Ahead
“German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned her fellow leaders that the European Union is facing its deepest recession since World War II and that will lead to very, very difficult times indeed,” Bloomberg reports.
“She wondered whether people have understood exactly what this means and cautioned that the EU has every interest in having a recovery plan in place by the end of the summer ahead of events like the U.S. election in the fall.”
New Jobless Claims Keep Piling Up
First-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 1.5 million last week, well above the 1.3 million expected, CNBC reports.
This was the 13th straight week that claims have totaled above 1 million.
Paul Krugman: “If you listen hard, you can hear the sound of dead cats bouncing.“
Powell Sees Risk of Long-Term Economic Damage
“Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy faces significant long-term damage from higher unemployment and a wave of small business failures due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite recent signs of improvement,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Said Powell: “Until the public is confident that the disease is contained, a full recovery is unlikely… If not contained and reversed, the downturn could further widen gaps in economic well-being that the long expansion had made some progress in closing.”
U.S. Slumps to 10th Spot In Competitiveness Rankings
The U.S. was once the world’s most competitive economy. Under Donald Trump it has fallen to 10th in a new ranking, Bloomberg reports.
Biden’s Team Says Trump ‘Bungled’ the Economy
Joe Biden’s campaign says President Trump’s effort to campaign on an improving economy is a “desperate scheme” that ignores how his handling of the coronavirus pandemic contributed to the economic downturn, Bloomberg reports.
Biden team argues that Trump “bungled” the crisis and that there are “two major flaws” in his efforts to spin current economic conditions: Trump’s “failed leadership” and his lack of a plan beyond urging businesses to reopen.
Oregon Hits Pause on Reopening
Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D) announced Thursday evening that she has put all applications for further reopening across the state on hold for at least seven days after seeing a “concerning” increase in coronavirus infections, the Oregonian reports.
Black Community Braces for Mass Evictions
“A new tremor is threatening to shake minority communities as protests over racial injustice sweep the country: A wave of evictions as a federal moratorium on kicking people out of their rental units expires,” Politico reports.
“The ban on evictions — which applies to rentals that are backed by the government — expires in a matter of weeks. On top of that, the federal boost to unemployment benefits that many laid-off workers have used to pay their rent is set to end July 31.”
“Black and Latino people are twice as likely to rent as white people, so they would be most endangered if the protection from removal is ended. But there’s no relief in sight from Congress, with Republicans and Democrats not even expected to begin negotiating a new economic relief package until after the July Fourth holiday.”
Axios: Fears grow of an eviction apocalypse.
Mnuchin Says ‘We Can’t Shut Down Economy Again’
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC on Thursday that shutting down the economy for a second time to combat the spread of Covid-19 isn’t a viable option and could cause even more headaches for Americans.
Said Mnuchin: “We can’t shut down the economy again. I think we’ve learned that if you shut down the economy, you’re going to create more damage. And not just economic damage, but there are other areas and we’ve talked about this: medical problems and everything else that get put on hold. I think it was very prudent what the president did, but I think we’ve learned a lot.”
More Than 1.5 Million Filed Jobless Claims Last Week
The Labor Department reports another 1.54 million Americans filed jobless claims last week, CNBC reports.
The total over the last 12 weeks is now 44.2 million.
Fed Will Keep Interest Rates Near Zero
“The Federal Reserve kept interest rates near zero and indicated that’s where they’ll stay as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic,” CNBC reports.
“Along with the rate decision, central bankers projected Wednesday that the economy will shrink 6.5% in 2020, a year that saw an unprecedented halting of business activity in an effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic. However, 2021 is expected to show a 5% gain followed by 3.5% in 2022, both well above the economy’s longer-term trend.”
The Wall Street Journal says the Fed projected “no plans to raise interest rates through 2022 and said they were committed to providing more support to the economy following shutdowns to contain the coronavirus.”
World Economy Will Shrink 6% This Year
“The coronavirus pandemic is splintering the world economy, and the extraordinary action needed means policy makers cannot risk a premature withdrawal of lifelines to businesses and the most vulnerable people, the OECD warned,” Bloomberg reports.
“It made the grim assessment in its quarterly outlook, where it forecast a global slump of 6% this year, more than the World Bank earlier this week. That’s based on a scenario of the virus continuing to recede. A second wave, which the OECD said is an equally likely scenario, could mean a 7.6% contraction.”
African-American Jobless Rate Tripled
Wall Street Journal: “The black unemployment rate, which at 5.8% in February was near the lowest since records began in 1972, tripled to 16.8% in May, according to the Labor Department.”
The GOP’s Big Bet on the Economy
“The United States officially is in a recession. But Senate Republicans are still in no rush to dole out more coronavirus relief,” Politico reports.
“Buoyed by a surprisingly strong jobs report last week and the knowledge that some of Congress’ $2 trillion March spending package still hasn’t been spent, the Senate GOP remains noncommittal on both the timing and substance of the next piece of legislation. Bipartisan talks still haven’t begun in earnest, according to senators and aides, and the White House and senior Republican senators say they won’t start until July.”
Bloomberg: Jobs rebound spurs GOP calls for Congress to go slow on stimulus.
Recession Began In February
The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that a recession began in the United States in February 2020.
“The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of U.S. business cycles dating back to 1854.”
Axios: “There was no doubt the U.S. was in the midst of a recession, given the shelter-in-place measures that brought economic activity to a near halt and caused millions of layoffs — but this is their fastest call yet, as it’s sometimes taken as long as a year to make such calls in the past.”
Trump Plans ‘Recovery Summer’ Message
“President Trump and his team are heralding a summer of economic recovery — a dramatic turnaround that will become the centerpiece of his pitch to voters, casting aside attention on nationwide protests and the coronavirus pandemic,” Politico reports.
“Many fellow Republicans — and Democrats burned by hopeful economic messaging a decade ago — view the coming months with far greater caution, warning about a chest-thumping declaration of victory.”
‘Error’ Made Unemployment Rate Look Better
“When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major ‘error’ indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate,” the Washington Post reports.
“The special note said that if this ‘misclassification error’ had not occurred, the ‘overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,’ meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May, but that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of more than 19 percent for April, applying the same standards.”
Trump Says Strong Economy Will End Racism
President Trump said his plan to address racism is a strong economy, after he was pressed on whether he has a plan to end systemic racism in the country, the Washington Post reports.
Said Trump: “It’s the greatest thing that can happen for race relations, for the African American community, for the Asian American, for the Hispanic American community, for women, for everything.”
He added: “We all saw what happened last week. We can’t let that happen. Hopefully George is looking down right now and saying this a great thing that’s happening for our country. There’s a great day for him. It’s a great day for everybody. It’s a great day for everybody. There’s a great, great day in terms of equality.”
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