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With Ted Cruz surging in the latest Iowa and national polls, it’s becoming increasingly clear that he’s the candidate with the best path to the Republican nomination.

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Neil Newhouse is a Republican pollster who worked on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.

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Even though the HuffPost Pollster polling averages shows Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz in Iowa by eight points, 29% to 21%, it’s not at all clear Trump’s supporters will actually make it to the caucuses on February 1.

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With 53 days until the first voting starts in Iowa, it appears the GOP race is coming down to three candidates: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. The HuffPost Pollster averages show all three gaining ground in Iowa with the rest of the field fading. It’s possible that one or more may yet stumble, but each is currently the clear frontrunner in their respective “lanes” to the nomination.

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Joe Trippi is a Democratic strategist who managed Gov. Howard Dean’s unsuccessful presidential bid in 2004.

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Robert Shrum is a veteran Democratic strategist who worked on eight different presidential campaigns, including general election campaigns for Al Gore and John Kerry.

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After watching President Obama’s Oval Office address on the terrorist threat last night, I wouldn’t be surprised if Donald Trump gained another 5 to 10 points in the national polls this week.

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Marco Rubio has become the establishment’s choice in the Republican presidential primary, but as Ed Kilgore notes, “At some point, you have to start winning caucuses and primaries to win the nomination. And it’s hard to identify right now where Rubio is supposed to claim his first victory.”

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The comparison between Donald Trump and Howard Dean is an enticing one for Republicans who desperately don’t want the billionaire businessman as their presidential nominee in 2016.

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Four years ago at this time, after flirtations with several non-traditional presidential candidates, Republican voters began to consolidate around Mitt Romney, the establishment candidate and eventual nominee. This wasn’t that much of a surprise because in GOP politics the establishment candidate usually prevails by the time the convention comes around.